Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 11

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Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 11

Steve Silverman, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Nov 14, 2025 ·

3 min read

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The post Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 11 appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will battle in Week 11 in a classic AFC West matchup. While the Chiefs have ruled the division for years, they are in third place in the division in this game, while the resurgent Broncos have the lead in the division.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds

Chiefs: -3.5, -205

Broncos: +3.5, +170

Over: 44.5, -115

Under: 44.5 -105

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings )

Chiefs vs. Broncos Key Injuries

Chiefs:Defensive end George Karlaftis (thumb) questionable; Running back Isiah Pacheco (knee) questionable; Wide receiver Xavier Worthy (ankle) questionable; Offensive tackle Ethan Driskell (Appendix) NFI-R for Week 11

Broncos:DE John Franklin-Myers (back) questionable; WR Marvin Mims Jr.(concussion) questionable; RB J.K. Dobbins (foot) questionable; LB Alex Singleton (illness) out

Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Trends

Kansas City leads all-time series, 73-57-0; Broncos have won 2 of last 3 meeting, but Chiefs are 17-2 straight up in last 19 games. Chiefs had 16-game winning streak from 2016-2023.

2025 records:

Kansas City, 5-4 straight up, 5-4 ATS; Denver, 8-2 straight up, 4-6 ATS

Over/UnderKansas City 3-6; Denver, 3-7

Keys to Chiefs vs. Broncos Matchup

The Chiefs are in a must-win position after suffering a 28-21 defeat to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Patrick Mahomes and his teammates are coming off a bye week, so they should be well prepared to take on the division-leading Broncos.

Mahomes has to carry the Chiefs offense on his shoulders since the Kansas City running game has been a significant disappointment to this point. Mahomes has completed 204 of 316 passes for 2,349 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 interception. Veteran tight end Travis Kelce is his leading receiver with 41-540-3 and wideout Marquise Brown has caught 34-389-4.

Isiah Pacheco is the team's leading rusher with 329 yards and 4.22 average, but he has gotten into the end zone just once.

The Broncos would like to bury their long-time rivals, and they appear to be more versatile than the Chiefs. Bo Nix has big-play ability but he lacks consistency. The second-year quarterback has completed 213 of 350 passes for 2,126 yards with an 18-8 TD-interception ratio

Running back J.K. Dobbins will not be 100 percent if he can play with his foot injury. However, he has rushed for 772 yards and a 5.05 yards per carry average. He has scored 4 rushing TDs.

Wideout Courtland Sutton is Nix's favorite receiver. He has been targeted 66 times and he has caught 41-590-4. Second-year WR Troy Franklin is also dangerous, as he has caught 42-425-5.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

The Chiefs punished the Broncos for nearly eight full seasons during a 16-game winning streak during the series. The Broncos were Mahomes' whipping boys, and he seemingly could do whatever he wanted against them.

However, the Broncos are a first-place team and they have quite a bit to pay back to Mahomes & Co. The Chiefs need the game more than the Broncos, but the Broncos are prepared and ready.

The underdog Broncos will defend their homefield and secure a 20-17 victory and the spread cover. Both teams have tended toward the under, and this game will follow that trend.

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