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Conference chaos: College football tiebreaker scenarios as CFP race heats up
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- Conference chaos: College football tiebreaker scenarios as CFP race heats up
Dozens of scenarios are still in play as the Power Four inches toward conference championship games, beginning with the possibility of an absurdly convoluted quagmire in the ACC.
The league is likely to travel far down the list of tiebreaker scenarios to decide which teams meet in Charlotte, N.C., for the league's one assured College Football Playoff bid.
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While other Power Four conferences could have two, three or even four teams with identical records, the ACC faces the possibility of a seven-team stalemate that would require an NSA-level cryptologist to decipher.
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Things are simpler in the SEC , relatively speaking. While Indiana is on the verge of locking down a championship game appearance, the other half of the Big Ten race could come down to the final day of the regular season and the rivalry between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 17 Michigan.
With three weeks remaining until conference championship games, here's where each race stands in the Power Four and the American, which has the inside track for the Group of Five's playoff berth:
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(League records in parentheses)
SEC conference tiebreakers
Contenders:No. 3 Texas A&M (6-0), No. 4 Alabama (6-0), No. 5 Georgia (6-1), No. 7 Mississippi (5-1), No. 10 Texas (4-1).
Let's start by agreeing on this: Alabama is going to make the championship game.
The Crimson Tide can lose to Oklahoma or Auburn and still make it to Atlanta because of its head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia and an advantage over Mississippi in conference opponent winning percentage. That Alabama is unlikely to lose both games could block Georgia from reaching Atlanta for the fifth year in a row, while the Rebels are also held at arm's length by a loss to the Bulldogs.
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The Tide would face Texas A&M if the Aggies beat South Carolina and Texas to end the regular season. But just one loss would throw the SEC into chaos.
Begin with the assumption that Alabama goes unbeaten in conference play. That would leave the possibility of three other one-loss teams in the Aggies, Rebels and either the Bulldogs or Longhorns , who meet this weekend. Here's how that would unfold:
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If Texas A&M, Georgia and Mississippi are in a three-way tie for second place, Georgia would likely advance based on conference opponent winning percentage.
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If the Texas A&M, Mississippi and Texas are in a three-way tie, Texas would be eliminated by a loss to Florida, one of three common opponents along with Mississippi State and Arkansas. The tiebreaker would then be conference opponent winning percentage. If that fails to break the stalemate, the SEC would turn to "capped relative scoring margin," a formula created by the firm SportSource Analytics.
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The Rebels' path to Atlanta requires wins against Florida and Mississippi State, a Texas win against Georgia, an A&M loss to South Carolina and then an A&M win against the Longhorns.
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Lastly, Texas returns to the championship game by beating Georgia and beating A&M while the Rebels drop one of two.
Hey, no one said this was going to be easy.
Big Ten conference tiebreakers
Contenders:No. 2 Indiana (7-0), No. 1 Ohio State (6-0), No. 18 Southern California (5-1), No. 6 Oregon (5-1), No. 17 Michigan (5-1).
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The Big Ten is easier to decipher, at least. For the two favorites, Indiana ends the year against Wisconsin and Purdue while Ohio State closes with UCLA, Rutgers and Michigan. Let's work off two assumptions: one, the Hoosiers take care of the Badgers and Boilermakers, and two, Oregon beats Southern California and eliminates the Trojans.
If Ohio State loses again to Michigan, the Ducks are in position to earn a rematch against Indiana over the Wolverines because of an expected higher common opponent winning percentage. That same edge would send the Ducks to Indianapolis should the Buckeyes lose to UCLA. Should Ohio State lose to Rutgers, the Ducks would finish ahead of Ohio State thanks to a better record among five common Big Ten opponents.
There is a way for Michigan to face the Hoosiers. First, Oregon or USC would have to lose this weekend to Minnesota or Iowa, respectively, and then the loser would have to win next Saturday's matchup at the Coliseum, leaving both teams with two conference losses. The Wolverines would then have to beat the Buckeyes for the fifth time in a row.
USC makes the championship game by running the table combined with a Michigan win against Ohio State.
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Big 12 conference tiebreakers
Contenders:No. 8 Texas Tech (6-1), No. 12 Brigham Young (5-1), No. 22 Cincinnati (5-1), Houston (5-2), No. 15 Utah (4-2).
Texas Tech finishes with Central Florida and West Virginia, so let's start with the expectation the Red Raiders end November with one league loss and lock up one spot.
It's win-and-in time for BYU, which has been miserable in November games since joining the Big 12. The Cougars close with TCU, Cincinnati and Central Florida. The Bearcats are in by beating the Cougars, Arizona and TCU.
There's a fairly high likelihood of having multiple teams with two conference losses, however.
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In the case where BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Utah finish are tied at 7-2 in conference play, the Utes would be expected to have a rematch with the Red Raiders by having the best common opponent winning percentage.
ACC conference tiebreakers
Contenders:No. 12 Georgia Tech (5-1), No. 19 Virginia (5-1), No. 23 Pittsburgh (5-1), SMU (5-1), Duke (4-1), No. 21 Louisville (4-2).
Georgia Tech ends with Boston College and Pittsburgh. Two wins in guarantee the Yellow Jackets head to the ACC championship game for the first time since 2014.
Even if Tech takes care of business, there's the high probability of multiple teams tied with two conference losses, which would trigger the use of the SportSource Analytics formula to decide who faces the Jackets.
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Saturday's matchup between Duke and Virginia could be a tipping point. Should Duke win and Louisville beat SMU next weekend, the Blue Devils could finish second even with a loss to North Carolina or Wake Forest because of a higher common opponent winning percentage than Louisville, Virginia, Miami and SMU.
The Cardinals would finish second with a win against SMU combined with a Virginia win against Duke and a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech. Should Virginia beat Duke and SMU beat Louisville, the Cavaliers would finish ahead of the Mustangs based on common opponent winning percentage.
And yes, there is a chance of a seven-win tie for first. That's how Miami — somehow, someway — makes the championship game. In the case where Georgia Tech loses once, Virginia beats Duke but loses to the Virginia, Louisville beats SMU and Miami wins out, the Hurricanes would draw a rematch with the Cardinals.
Got all that?
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American conference tiebreakers
Contenders:Navy (5-1), South Florida (4-1), Tulane (4-1), North Texas (4-1), East Carolina (4-1).
Memphis is no longer a serious contender after losing to Tulane. North Texas is the most likely to finish with one loss given games against Alabama-Birmingham, Rice and Temple to end the month. One of Navy and South Florida will be sent to the back of the line after the two meet on Saturday in Annapolis.
Should Navy beat South Florida but then lose to Memphis, the most likely matchup in the championship game is North Texas against Tulane, which seems set to finish with one loss based on upcoming games against Florida Atlantic, Temple and Charlotte. The Green Wave also own the tiebreaker over East Carolina.
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The likeliest scenario has a three-way tie between the Bulls, Mean Green and Green Wave. In this case, the playoff rankings or computer metrics would be used to break the deadlock.
Should two teams be ranked in the penultimate playoff rankings and then win their season finales, that pair would meet in the conference championship. This is the dream scenario for the American and the playoff.
That's because of the growing possibility the league has to use computer metrics — our old, much-maligned friend from the Bowl Championship Series days — to determine the two teams left standing.
In the case where playoff rankings won't settle the story, the American will split hairs between three or more teams by using the compositive average of four metrics: ESPN reporter Bill Connolly's SP+, SportSource Analytics' TR116 SOR, ESPN's SOR and the KPI, a measurement tool created by Michigan State associate athletics director Kevin Pagua.
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So, boiled down: One spot in the 12-team playoff could be decided by computers. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football CFP conference tiebreakers for SEC, ACC, AAC, Big 10
