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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Who’s In? Who’s Out? Who’s on the Cusp?
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- College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Who’s In? Who’s Out? Who’s on the Cusp?
The first edition of the College Football Playoff selection committee's top 25 rankings didn't feature many surprises, but Tuesday night's release provided valuable insight into at-large teams on the bubble.
With a month to go in the 2025 season, several scenarios are still in play. But for the ACC, the committee's first rankings seem to indicate this conference will be a one-bid league in December. The Big 12's odds of having more than one team in the 12-team field looks promising, while the Big Ten and SEC will be fighting for more at-large spots down the stretch with several teams still in play outside of the top 10.
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Notre Dame (No. 10) is in great shape to make the playoff if it wins out. However, coach Marcus Freeman's team doesn't have any margin for error with two losses entering Week 11.
In last year's first ranking, eight of the top 10 teams went on to make the field. Also, Clemson (No. 23) was the lowest-rated team from the first rankings in '24 to eventually make the final cut.
What do last year's selections and the first set of rankings for '25 tell us for what could happen on the bubble this season? Athlon Sports examines the first release and breaks down which teams are in great shape, which teams have work to do, and which teams are squarely on the bubble:
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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch
ACC
Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris passes the ball during his team's win over the Florida State Seminoles in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Sept. 26, 2025.© Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
In:Virginia (No. 14)
On the Bubble:Louisville (No. 15), Georgia Tech (No. 17), Miami (No. 18), Pitt (No. 24), Duke (Not Ranked)
The first College Football Playoff rankings were a dose of bad news for the ACC. Barring some major shuffling, the ACC is likely a one-bid conference this season. Due to its head-to-head win, Virginia (No. 14) gets the nod over Louisville (No. 15) as the favorite. Georgia Tech's hopes of a playoff spot took a massive hit after last week's loss at NC State. However, coach Brent Key's team has opportunities to move up with games against Pitt and Georgia. Meantime, Pitt will have a chance to play spoiler — or play its way into the field — with matchups against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Miami remaining.
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Duke wasn't ranked, but coach Manny Diaz's team hosts Virginia and Wake Forest and plays at North Carolina to close out its ACC schedule this year. If the Blue Devils run the table, they could be playing in the conference title game and for a spot in the playoff.
Despite good wins over South Florida and Notre Dame, Miami is ranked No. 18 after its loss at SMU in Week 10. The Hurricanes aren't out of it, but the selection committee clearly has a skeptical view of coach Mario Cristobal's squad after two losses in its past three games. Also, with games against Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt upcoming, Miami lacks opportunities to improve its résumé.
OVERRATED TEAMS: Which teams did the committee miss on in the first rankings?
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Big 12
Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier looks to pass against the Portland State Vikings at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah, on Aug. 30, 2025.
In:BYU (No. 7), Texas Tech (No. 8)
On the Bubble:Utah (No. 13)
On-the-Radar:Cincinnati (Not Ranked)
There's a long way to go, but the Big 12 was one of the biggest winners from the first set of rankings. BYU and Texas Tech play on Saturday but are in the top 10 with some room for error. At 8-0, the Cougars could lose in Lubbock but rematch (and win) against the Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship Game to make the 12-team field.
The committee was higher on Utah (No. 13) than voters in the Associated Press Top 25 or coaches poll, and the Utes have a favorable path — at Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas — to a 10-2 record. Cincinnati's loss to Utah cost coach Scott Satterfield's squad a top-25 spot. However, with just one loss in conference play, and games remaining against Arizona, BYU, and TCU, the Bearcats will factor into the mix.
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Big Ten
Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. passes during his team's game against the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, Maryland, on Oct. 4, 2025.© Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images
In:Ohio State (No. 1), Indiana (No. 2), Oregon (No. 9)
On the Bubble:USC (No. 19), Iowa (No. 20), Michigan (No. 21), Washington (No. 23)
Ohio State (No. 1) and Indiana (No. 2) appear to be on a collision course for a massive showdown in the Big Ten Championship Game. The selection committee didn't view Oregon (No. 9) as highly as the Associated Press Top 25 or coaches poll (No. 6 in both), but the Ducks control their own destiny to the playoff with matchups against Iowa, USC, and Washington remaining.
The Big Ten has only three teams in the projected field after Week 10, but USC, Iowa, Michigan, and Washington all have a chance to fight their way into the field. The matchup between USC and Iowa on Nov. 15 looms large, while all three teams have a shot at Oregon in November.
The Wolverines are a team to watch. Both losses for Michigan came against top-25 teams (Oklahoma and USC), and coach Sherrone Moore's squad should be favored against Northwestern and Maryland to sit at 9-2 going into the annual showdown against Ohio State. If the Wolverines knock off the Buckeyes to finish 10-2, the Maize and Blue will be in the playoff.
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BOWL PROJECTIONS: Predicting the matchups for every bowl and playoff game
SEC
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson looks to pass against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia, on Sept. 27, 2025.© Brett Davis-Imagn Images
In:Texas A&M (No. 3), Alabama (No. 4), Georgia (No. 5), Ole Miss (No. 6)
On the Bubble: Texas (No. 11), Oklahoma (No. 12), Vanderbilt (No. 16), Missouri (No. 22)
The SEC has several big-time matchups coming in the final month of the season, but Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss are in great shape to make the playoff with some room for error.
If Vanderbilt wins out, coach Clark Lea's team will be squarely on the bubble at 10-2. The Nov. 29 matchup at Tennessee looms as the Commodores' biggest remaining test with Auburn (Nov. 8) and Kentucky (Nov. 22) up next.
Considering strength of schedule and quality wins, a potential 9-3 Texas or 9-3 Oklahoma is also a viable playoff bubble team. Missouri (6-2) needs to beat Texas A&M this Saturday to keep its playoff hopes alive.
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Independents
Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman takes the field with his team before their game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Notre Dame Stadium on Sept. 13, 2025.
In:Notre Dame (No. 10)
If the playoff started today, Notre Dame would be the last at-large team in the field. After reeling off six straight victories, the Fighting Irish have clawed their way back into playoff contention, picking up quality wins over USC, Boise State, and NC State. With matchups remaining against Navy and Pitt, coach Marcus Freeman's team doesn't have an easy path. However, if Notre Dame wins out, a 10-2 Fighting Irish squad isn't getting left out of the playoff.
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Related: 2 Most Overrated Teams in the Initial College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings
Related: College Football Coaching Carousel Rankings: Rating the Open Jobs in the 2025-26 Cycle
Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2025-26
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Nov 5, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
