Colts vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 12

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Colts vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 12

Bryan Logan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Nov 21, 2025 ·

5 min read

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The post Colts vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, pick for NFL Week 12 appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The Kansas City Chiefs look to get back in the playoff hunt as they host the Indianapolis Colts . The Chiefs are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Meanwhile, the Colts are in a position to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 campaign.

The Colts come into the game at 8-2 , good for first place in the AFC South. The last time the Colts played was in Berlin, Germany, against the Atlanta Falcons . After giving up the lead with 1:44 left in the game on a Tyler Allgeier touchdown run, a two-point conversion gave the Falcons a three-point lead. Michael Badgley hit a 44-yard field goal with 25 seconds left to tie the game, and then Jonathan Taylor won the game in overtime. They are coming off a bye week.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 5-5 on the year, which is good for third in the AFC West. Kansas City is in danger of missing the playoffs with its current record. They have lost two straight games, falling 28-21 to the Bills and 22-19 to the Broncos last time out. The Chiefs took the lead in the fourth quarter with the Broncos on a Travis Kelce touchdown reception. The Broncos would tie the game with 4:10 left. After forcing a punt, the Broncos drove the field and hit a game-winning field goal as time expired, handing the Chiefs a second straight loss.

NFL Betting Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Colts vs. Chiefs Odds

Indianapolis Colts: +3.5 (-115)

Kansas City Chiefs: -3.5 (-105)

Over: 50.5 (-108)

Under: 50.5 (-112)

Colts vs. Chiefs Key Injuries

Colts: DT Grover Sewart (DNP/Rest), QB Daniel Jones (Calf/LP) , DE Tyquan Lewis (Groin/LP), CB Kenny Moore (Rest/FP), DE Samson Ebukam (Knee/LP), WR Anthony Gould (Knee/FP), LB Jaylon Carlies (Ankle/FP), CB Charvarius Ward (Ankle/FP)

Chiefs:WR Xavier Worthy (Ankle/LP), G Kingsley Suamataia (Concussion/LP), RB Isiah Pacheco (Knee/LP), G Trey Smith (Back/FP), T Jawaan Taylor (Knee-Ankle/FP), DE George Karlaftis (Thumb/FP), DE Charles Omenihu (Ankle/FP), LB Jeffrey Bassa (Shoulder/FP), S Jaden Hicks (Shoulder/FP)

Colts vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

– The Coltsare 6-4 ATS this year. They have failed to cover in each of the last two games.

– The Chiefsare 5-5 ATS this year. The team has covered in three of their last five games.

– The Coltsare 2-2 ATS on the road, but 0-1 as a road underdog. They are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year.

– The Chiefsare 4-1 ATS at home, and 3-0 at home when a favorite. The team is 4-4 when a favorite this year.

– The over has covered in six out of ten Coltsgames this year, but just two of four on the road.

– The over is just 3-7 in Chiefsgames this year. It is also just 1-4 in home games this season. The under has hit in five straight Chiefs games.

Keys to Colts vs. Chiefs

For the Colts, it all will come down to keeping the offense humming. The offense is first in the NFL in points per game while sitting first in yards per game. They are third in the running game while also third in the passing game. Jonathan Taylor has been great this year, running for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns. Still, Jones is going to be the key to this game. Kansas City is ninth against the run this year, but 11th against the pass.

Still, Jones is on the injury report now. If he cannot go, it will be Riley Leonard , the rookie out of Notre Dame, who gets the start. He attempted just two passes this year, both incompletions. Jones has been phenomenal for the Colts this year. He has passed for 2,659 yards and 15 touchdowns. Danny Dimes has also run for five touchdowns this year. He has thrown seven interceptions, including four in his last two games.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a great defense this year. They are fourth in the NFL in points against per game while sitting seventh in opponent yards per game. The defense has kept the offense in games, but for the Chiefs, the magic total is 28 points on offense. They have scored 28 or more points in five games this year, going 4-1. When they have failed to score 28 points, the team is just 1-4.

The offense is ninth in the NFL in points per game and seventh in yards per game. Isiah Pacheco is potentially going to be back in the lineup this week. Pacheco had run for 329 yards and a touchdown before going down with an injury. He will be a nice complement for Kareem Hunt , who has run for 353 yards and six touchdowns. The Colts' run defense has been solid this year, but the Chiefs need to establish the run game to open up the pass, which they have done better with Pacheco in the lineup.

Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

The Chiefs dropping below .500 at this point in the season is hard to imagine, but possible with how well the Colts are playing. The Colts have failed to cover in the last two games, but when they have covered this year, it has been in dominating fashion. They have covered the spread by over 14 points four times this year. Further, they have covered by less than a score just once this season.

The Chiefs have also failed to cover in their last two games, but when they have covered, it has been by a touchdown or more. Indianapolis is trying to prove that they are a legitimate contender in the AFC, and if Jones is playing, it will keep this game tight.

The defensive units will be the main focus of this game, but Indianapolis will do enough to keep this close and cover.

Colts vs. Chiefs Pick: Colts +3.5 (-115) and Under 50.5 (-112)

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