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Does Byron Buxton Have a Shot to Win the Home Run Derby?
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- Does Byron Buxton Have a Shot to Win the Home Run Derby?
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
The Minnesota Twins are sending Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan to this week's All-Star Game in Atlanta, Georgia. Both players deservedly got invites to the event, but it's the centerfielder taking advantage of the stage in his home state. At the request of his son Brixton, Buxton is competing in the Home Run Derby as well.
Through 77 games Buxton has 21 home runs . His latest came at the culmination of the first cycle in Target Field history on Saturday. After finishing off the first half for the 47-48 Minnesota Twins, he'll turn his focus to launching baseballs at Truist Park.
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But, can he win?
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Byron Buxton's Home Run Derby odds
This season it's Byron Buxton and his 3.8 fWAR that leads the Minnesota Twins. That's an all-encompassing stat, but his 21 home runs don't hurt. He also has the third-highest OPS (.921) in the American League, trailing only Aaron Judge and Cal Raeligh.
The Home Run Derby won't take into account anything but the big fly. Differing levels of athleticism can win the event though. Justin Morneau is the only MN Twins winner in history, beating Josh Hamilton in 2008. Miguel Sano finished runner-up in 2017. Here's where Buxton's odds fall for Monday night in Atlanta.
| Player |
FanDuel |
DraftKings |
| Cal Raleigh |
+270 |
+295 |
| Oneil Cruz |
+320 |
+320 |
| James Wood |
+400 |
+475 |
| Byron Buxton |
+900 |
+950 |
| Junior Caminero |
+1000 |
+1200 |
| Brent Rooker |
+1000 |
+850 |
| Matt Olson |
+1000 |
+800 |
| Jazz Chisholm |
+1600 |
+1100 |
Source: FanDuel and DraftKings
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It seems there is a consensus among the top trio. It's also not surprising to see Raleigh and his league-leading 38 home runs as the favorite. The catcher is a bigger-bodied athlete at 6'2″ 235 pounds, and he plays as a switch-hitter during games. 22 of his home runs have come as a left-handed hitter. That seems beneficial at Truist Park as well considering right field (325 ft) and right-center (375 ft) measure shorter than the left side .
Both Wood and Cruz have a profile similar to Buxton. The MN Twins star checks in with the fourth-best odds at FanDuel while being sixth at DraftKings despite very similar individual odds. If Buxton can get into a rhythm, it's possible that his body and athletic ability hold up better than the rest of the field.
Credit: Statcast
Just one of Buxton's home runs this season has been to the opposite field. Not surprisngly, it was only off-center by a handful of feet. Truist Park is a bit less hitter-friendly than Target Field plays this season, but that's different when you're being lobbed meatballs.
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Related: Byron Buxton Hits for Cycle on His Day; Twins Dominate Pirates
Ultimately the Minnesota Twins slugger represents a strong bet. DraftKings offers slightly better odds, and Byron Buxton has a real chance to win the whole thing. The Baxley, Georgia native is going to be beyond motivated in front of the home crowd.
The fireworks start at 7 pm CDT on Monday night. You can catch Buxton in the Home Run Derby on ESPN.
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