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ESPN names likely Georgia first-round draft pick as player most likely to be a bust
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- ESPN names likely Georgia first-round draft pick as player most likely to be a bust
Georgia edge rusher Mykel Williams is earning major hype as a potential first-round pick before the 2025 NFL draft, but there are people who believe Williams won't work out with an NFL team. ESPN projected Mykel Williams as the 2025 edge rusher most likely to be a bust.
ESPN went to FTN Fantasy Chiefs Analytics Officer Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, to use Nathan Forster's SackSEER system for projecting college edge rushers in the NFL. SackSEER is a statistical model that predicts the performance of collegiate edge rushers in the NFL.
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Here is the criteria:
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vertical leap
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short shuttle time
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SRAM (an adjusted measure of per-game sack productivity in college)
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The total number of eligible games missed for any reason other than early entry into the NFL draft
According to this system, Williams is projected to get just 19.5 sacks in 5 seasons, equivalent to less than four sacks a season. Ironically enough, it's the same projection as 2023 first-round EDGE Nolan Smith received.
Williams is more about promise than production in college, but after getting just four sacks in his first two years, he earned 5.5 sacks in his junior year. Not to mention, he injured his ankle and was out for two games as well. He didn't end up testing at the combine because of his ankle injury. In conclusion, while Williams could bust, he could very easily beat this statistical model, especially if he remains healthy in his NFL career.
"That injury also might explain why Williams had only 5.0 sacks as a junior because he said he struggled with it all season. So there's bust potential here, but there's also good reason to believe he will beat his SackSEER projection," said Schatz.
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Williams' potential outweighs the risk of drafting him. He has put together some impressive tape against the run and has a solid frame. His athletic testing may not impress scouts, but his tape is strong.
This article originally appeared on UGA Wire: ESPN names Georgia star as most likely to be 2025 NFL draft bust
