Seth Walder of ESPN expects Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro outside linebacker T.J. Watt to have a down year in 2025, projecting 10.7 sacks. Watt had 11.5 sacks last year, which was his third least sacks in a season in his career. The other two seasons were his rookie year (seven sacks) and 2022 (5.5 sacks) when he played in just 10 games due to a knee injury.
"Watt's forecast is interesting at this juncture of his career. He's coming off a down season in which he recorded 11.5 sacks (down from 19.0 the year before) and a 19% pass rush win rate (25% in 2024), with his numbers particularly tailing off in the second half of the season. For a player who will turn 31 in October, it's not unreasonable to ask whether last season was the beginning of a decline," Walder wrote.
Walder ranked Watt as the fifth-best edge rusher in the NFL, behind Aidan Hutchinson , Micah Parsons , Trey Hendrickson and Myles Garrett .
"The Steelers don't seem particularly worried, considering they handed Watt a market-setting extension that averages $41 million per year and guarantees $32 million in 2027 . And by ranking him fifth, our projection model doesn't seem to forecast a rapid decline. The model calculates what a player does for the previous two seasons, and Watt's 2023 pass-rushing numbers were exceptional," Walder wrote.
Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt at training camp on July 24, 2025. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now
Coupled with injuries last season, Watt was slowed down due to teams scheming against him since he doesn't switch sides. That could change this year.
"That's something that this time of year is perfect for us, to move around, to get comfortable," Watt said at the beginning of training camp. "It's not about winning every single rep and having to be on the left side and having to get everything mastered on the left side. It's about trying new things and moving around.
"We have so much depth, especially at the outside linebacker position with [Nick] Herbig, too, who's a more than capable pass rusher. I'm sure we'll have some cool packages and some new stuff for you guys to see."
Alex Highsmith , who starts at outside linebacker on the right side, agrees with Watt. The defense has to change things up this year and not be as predictable.
"Just throwing different looks at guys," Highsmith said. "I know he's primarily left, I'm primarily right. I think we've just got to throw different looks at teams and stuff like that, and I know we're going to try and work on that during camp. We'll see how that goes."
Watt is entering his ninth NFL season with a fresh contract, a renewed sense of purpose , and a clear commitment to the franchise that drafted him.
"I want to give this organization longevity and do everything I possibly can each and every day to have success on the football field," Watt said as the Steelers opened camp.
This article originally appeared on Steelers Now : ESPN Projects Down Year for T.J. Watt: 'Beginning of a Decline'
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