My 18th NCAA Tournament bracket for the Times-Union bears a strange resemblance to a 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack.
Yes, I took a few deep shots — sending No. 12 seeds Colorado State and Liberty to the Sweet 16, along with No. 11 Texas to the same destination from the First Four — but most everything else is a slew of safe checkdown throws.
Whatever March Madness we truly get this year will be confined to the first week because this might be the most top-heavy tournament since 2008 in San Antonio , where all four No. 1 seeds (national champ Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis) made the Final Four for the first and only time.
Back in San Antonio this year, the gap between the top eight teams and the rest of the field beneath them appears so large, it'd be an upset if the Final Four didn't pack a complete 1-2 seed punch.
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Unlike 2023, when No. 9 Florida Atlantic, No. 5 Miami , No. 5 San Diego State and No. 4 UConn were regional champions, there'll be almost zero chance of a Cinderella advancing that far this time around.
That's because the other March (and April) Madness — where the best players from mid-major schools enter the transfer portal and get cherry-picked for six-figure paychecks of NIL money — has ensured that blue blood programs from power conferences have gained a greater competitive advantage than ever before.
For example, If Chaz Lanier hadn't left the University of North Florida last year for Tennessee, becoming the Volunteers' leading scorer (17.7 ppg) this season by a wide margin, UT would be closer to an 8 or 9 seed for the tournament than a No. 2.
Tennessee, along with Florida, Auburn and Alabama, are among a mind-boggling 14 SEC schools in the Big Dance. That quartet represents half of the teams on the top two seed lines, leaving open a real possibility that the SEC could become the first league to have three teams in the Final Four since the Big East (Villanova, Georgetown and St. John's) in 1985.
Will that happen? I'd still lean toward betting against it.
For a good part of the season, the prevailing sentiment about the SEC was Auburn had established itself as the top dog, with Alabama, Florida and Tennessee shuffling back and forth as the Tigers' primary challenger.
Auburn's No. 1 seed aside, it's the Gators (30-4, 14-4), who have now emerged as the SEC's primary threat to reclaim a national title the league last won in 2012 with Kentucky, preceded by UF's back-to-back crowns in 2006 and '07.
The way Florida romped through the SEC tournament, taking down three ranked teams in three days by a combined 45 points, was further evidence of an undeniable trend the past six weeks: the Gators might be the toughest out at the Big Dance.
Just as UConn was the most complete team a year ago, where the Huskies defended their title by beating six NCAA opponents by an average margin of 23.3 points, Florida now has that look of near invincibility.
Head coach Todd Golden stated the obvious after his team's 86-77 victory over Tennessee in the SEC tournament title game, saying "I really believe we have the best backcourt in America," alluding to the trio of Walter Clayton Jr. , Alijah Martin and Will Richard.
That's not even a point of debate, but what makes the Gators' margin for error so impressive is they can beat teams so many different ways.
Florida can win any style of game. Its offense (85.4 ppg) is so explosive, opponents can hang with them for 25 or 30 minutes, then be vanquished as Golden's team goes on sudden runs of 12-0, 16-2 or something crazy like that to win going away.
The Gators are not only a deep team, but they have an underrated frontcourt, led by Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu . That gives Golden a ton of flexibility, which means UF can survive inevitable foul trouble in a tournament grind much better than most teams.
UF's consistency against quality opposition, beating a school-record eight Top 25 opponents (5-2 against top-10 teams) to match the 2007 title team, is the best kind of prep for an NCAA Tournament.
The Gators should have minimal trouble getting to the Sweet 16, despite a potential second-round matchup with UConn in Raleigh on Sunday.
An Elite Eight matchup next week looms with St. John's and head coach Rick Pitino, who coached Clayton when the two were at Iona and won national titles at Kentucky and Louisville. Other coaches who won it all like Kansas' Bill Self and Arkansas' John Calipari are in the Gators' West region, but getting through the NCAAs is more about players and matchups. Florida will have too much firepower to be denied a Final Four trip.
The most challenging part about picking any bracket is deciding which double-digit seeds — and there's almost always one or two — get to the second week of March Madness.
Last year, six double-digit seeds won first-round games, but only No. 11 North Carolina State made a deep run, going all the way to the Final Four.
One disturbing pattern in recent years for the SEC is it has often been victimized by Cinderellas. In 2024, third-seeded Kentucky got bounced out by No. 14 Oakland and SEC tourney champ Auburn was stunned by No. 13 seed Yale.
The Gators lost the best shootout game of the tournament, falling 102-100 in regulation time to 10th-seeded Colorado, despite getting 33 points from Clayton and making 11 of 25 three-point attempts.
As dominant as the SEC looked all season, the chaos of March Madness can bite anybody. Tennessee was eliminated by No. 11 Michigan in 2022 and No. 12 Oregon State in 2021. That same year, seventh-seeded Florida got bounced by No. 15 Oral Roberts in the second round.
In the last four NCAAs, eight double-digit seeds made it to at least the Sweet 16. Which ones will deliver the first-week carnage this year?
One hunch I'm playing is Liberty, which has a quality coach in longtime boss Ritchie McKay. His Flames are top-10 nationally in scoring defense, assist/turnover ratio, field goal percentage, scoring margin, three-point defense and three-point percentage. As much as I'm tired of hearing the "Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. . . . Liberty" commercial, the Flames might have some NCAA staying power until hitting the Duke pothole.
It's probably not on anybody's NCAA bingo card, but I've also got Colorado State and First Four team Texas as double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16, where Florida and 2 seed Tennessee, respectively, end their Cinderella rides.
Not since 2017 has Florida made any kind of March Madness run, getting to the Elite Eight as a No. 4 seed before its second-half collapse led to a 77-70 loss to No. 7 South Carolina at Madison Square Garden.
The Gators are Final Four-good, and it doesn't hurt that their draw in the West is less dicey than for other SEC teams, especially Auburn. The Tigers' South region is loaded with potential land mines like ACC runner-up Louisville, which drew a surprisingly low No. 8 seed.
Auburn also has potentially significant hurdles in Michigan (No.5), Texas A&M (No. 4) and Michigan State (No. 2), and Bruce Pearl's team has stumbled a bit down the stretch.
My guess is the Tigers, despite the lethal presence of big man Johni Broome , meet their demise against Tom Izzo's MSU Spartans and fall one step short of San Antonio.
Tennessee and 'Bama are plenty capable of getting to the Final Four, but I like top seeds Houston in the Midwest and Duke in the East, providing superstar Cooper Flagg is fully healthy, to spoil the SEC party.
Full disclosure: my NCAA crystal ball has been shattering with alarming regularity. Picking UConn to win the national title in 2024 doesn't change the fact that I'm only 6-of-24 on Elite Eight choices the past three years.
It's hard to imagine any Final Four participants coming outside the No. 1 and 2 seeds, but who saw No. 11 North Carolina State getting there last year?
Right now, Florida looks more lethal than any other SEC team. During their NCAA journey, the Gators might well have an opportunity to eliminate UConn, then possibly Michigan State and Duke at the Final Four.
In that championship-winning scenario, UF would avenge losses to the last three teams to bounce them from the Final Four in 2014, 2000 and 1994, respectively.
College basketball is the SEC's domain this year, and nobody has more momentum on its side than Florida.
The Gators should pack some scissors for San Antonio. They'll be cutting down the nets.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com : (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: SEC rules March Madness with 14 teams, Gators survive to cut down nets
