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Habs Mailbag: Discussing Roster Changes and Future Prospects
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- Habs Mailbag: Discussing Roster Changes and Future Prospects
Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
With the NHL season in full swing, it's time to answer the first of many Montreal Canadiens mailbags that will be published this year.
As per usual, I would like to thank the Habs fans who submitted a question. No one can ever question your passion for this team, which makes covering the Canadiens a very enjoyable job.
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If you have a question for next week's mailbag, please make sure to drop it in a comment below the article.
This week, we'll discuss prospects, potential roster upgrades, trades, goaltending, Vikings, and much more.
Let's dive into the questions!
Joshua Roy
Hi, Claire!
For those of you who aren't familiar with Claire, she's one of the nicest people I've had the pleasure of meeting since I started covering the Habs. Not only has she supported me in every step of my career, she's gone out of her way to include me in a few social activities, which is much appreciated, as I've slowly yet surely become a hermit in my old age.
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As for the Roy inquiry, I'd suggest it's a situation that has been impacted by multiple changes in the organization, rather than just a player failing to earn his keep.
First off, when Roy was among the only legitimate forward prospects in the system, he alone held the spotlight. Now that Kent Hughes has taken over, not only has the prospect pipeline been bolstered significantly, holdovers from the previous regime, including Roy, have seen their standing among the Canadiens prospect drop to a certain extent.
There has also been a drastic change in the ideal style of play in Montreal. Skill is still important, but it must be paired with a consistent effort, and that's not always the case for Roy.
But ultimately, it's very difficult for a forward who is used to playing big minutes, including heavy powerplay usage, to produce if used on the fourth line. Additionally, it's hard to concentrate on producing when you know your opportunities will be limited.
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I still believe Roy can make a positive impact in Montreal, but to do so, he'll need to be used in the top six, and as it stands, there's no place for him on the second line.
Montreal Canadiens Upgrades
It's interesting that Moncton Scout is looking at the current situation in the standings as a volatile one, rather than a sure bet, which is how many fans have interpreted Montreal's strong start.
My opinion aligns with the good Sir from New Brunswick.
Statistically speaking, the Canadiens are currently being powered by their first line, not to mention Ivan Demidov 's dominant play on the second line.
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Only the top line is generating the type of underlying numbers that should be considered sustainable. The second line, which includes Demidov, Oliver Kapanen, and Alex Newhook, is surviving on pure skill, but their possession metrics are far from great.
They control roughly 41 percent of the shots, and 46 percent of the expected goals at 5v5.
However, I'm not convinced it's simply a No.2 centre issue. Yes, Newhook has played well, and Kapanen has taken advantage of the high-quality scoring chances generated by Demidov, but the overall skill level on the second line leaves something to be desired.
I'd be shocked if Demidov could not repeat the same results with two different linemates.
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In that vein, I'd point to the entire second line as a significant issue, especially if the third and fourth lines continue to struggle to produce any semblance of offence.
Personally, I'd bring Bolduc back into the fold, as he was generating more high-danger scoring chances than anyone else on the team before he was oddly demoted to the fourth line.
With Bolduc, you have a chance to maintain half-decent underlying numbers, which, in turn, means they can be sustained throughout the season.
Once the top six is stabilized, I'd ask my general manager to find me a player who can drive the offence in the bottom six. Brendan Gallagher continues to work harder than most, and he's doing all he can to generate quality chances, but overall, the bottom six has been the greatest disappointment for a team that was hoping to improve its offensive depth.
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The Canadiens have received just two 5v5 goals between Josh Anderson (1), Kirby Dach (1), Jake Evans (0), and Joe Veleno (0).
It's simply not good enough for a team hoping to make some noise in the playoffs.
Canadiens Surprises
Noah Dobson is my clear-cut choice for the biggest surprise.
I was aware of his potential impact, and I knew he was the exact type of player the Habs needed to take the next step in their rebuild, but I had no idea how quickly and efficiently he'd shore things up, both offensively and defensively.
He's been a godsend, and a significant reason why the Canadiens are among the hottest teams in the NHL.
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Canadiens Improvements
The biggest red flag in Montreal's early-season success has been the discrepancy between results and the possession numbers.
Are the Habs simply thriving due to Nick Suzuki's excellence? Cole Caufield's hot stick? Ivan Demidov's elite skill set? Jakub Dobes' refusal to lose?
I believe they are, and unless the rest of the lineup starts to pick up the slack, the playoffs are far from a lock.
If we remove the first line from the equation, the Habs have only managed to control 43 percent of the high-quality scoring chances this season, roughly as many as the Chicago Blackhawks have controlled, pointing to Dobes' hot start as a key reason why they're doing well in the standings.
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Dobes won't stay perfect forever, Suzuki won't extend his scoring streak to 81 games, Caufield won't keep scoring each game, and Demidov is bound to hit a valley among all the peaks.
Will the Canadiens receive offensive contributions from other players in the lineup? Time will tell.
Bolduc Situation
Martin St-Louis has done a great job evolving alongside his young players. A few years ago, he refused to use his timeouts, and he really didn't pay much attention to the goaltending situation.
That's no longer the case.
Therefore, he deserves a lot of credit for his growth.
However, I don't understand why he removed Bolduc from the second line. It genuinely does not make any sense. Bolduc was making a positive impact on every night, much to the contrary of his usage on the fourth line.
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Statistically speaking, Bolduc should be on the second line as of immediately.
Normandy Pride
Two very important questions. Let's start with the big one.
I'd say yes, there are still Vikings on earth.
Look at it this way, the Norsemen who ended up being given Normandy, were clearly Vikings, right?
Charles the Simple, King of West Francia, gave Rollo the land north of his empire around 911 BCE, because he wanted the endless Viking raids to cease.
The land is known as Normandy, as it was populated by the "Northmen".
The Normans went on to invade England in 1066, Southern Italy between the late 10th and 12th centuries, not to mention several cities during the First Crusade, including Jerusalem in 1099.
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You could make a strong argument that the Normans, who clearly descending from the Vikings, are among the greatest conquerors in history, and we haven't even discussed the Viking impact on places such as Kievan Rus, or Constantinople during the Byzantine Empire.
My family comes from Normandy, therefore I get to claim lineage linking us to Vikings. There are millions of people around the world that can claim the same.
Who is going to stop us?
Historically speaking, no one.
Retirement Issue
There are a few players, including Lemaire (No.25), who deserve to see their number retired by the Canadiens.
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The first that comes to mind is Steve Shutt (No.22), who still holds the record for the most goals scored in a season (60). Guy Lafleur matched him, but Shutt was the first to reach that prestigious level.
You could also make a strong argument that Toe Blake's No.6 deserves to be retired.
It's a little more complicated for the Habs, as they're starting to run out of numbers, and there are younger players who will start to be considered for jersey retirements, including Carey Price (No.31) and Andrei Markov (No.79).
Simply put, it's an embarrassment of riches, born from the Canadiens being one of the most dominant sports franchises in history.
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As for Demidov, I wouldn't lose any sleep over his usage. I believe St-Louis deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially after he essentially handed Lane Hutson a considerable amount of ice time during his rookie campaign.
Until the second line is shored up, I'm not convinced more ice time is the right decision for that trio, and I get the sense that St-Louis agrees, based on their limited usage at 5v5.
That being said, Demidov is already averaging over 2 minutes of powerplay ice time per game, a situation that would lead to envy from most rookies around the league.
Horse Before Cart
I think it would be a mistake to trade Montembeault at this point. Yes, Dobes has been great, but it's a long season.
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Think of it as a marathon, rather than a sprint.
At one point, Montembeault's numbers will inevitably improve, while Dobes ' stats will be very difficult to maintain.
A trade would also put more pressure on Dobes and Jacob Fowler, which is far from ideal for young netminders.
But to answer your question, goaltenders rarely command a strong return on the NHL's trade market, which connotes they'd be unlikely to land a legitimate No.2 centre by dangling Montembeault.
Therefore, I see little to no value in entertaining trade hypotheticals for Montembeault. It's not the most exciting answer, granted, but such is life when discussing goaltender trade value in the NHL.
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