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Here's how Texas Tech football can make the College Football Playoff, and why it won't
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- Here's how Texas Tech football can make the College Football Playoff, and why it won't
Can the Texas Tech football team count on a trip to the College Football Playoff? I've said no, multiple times, but that doesn't make it impossible.
Let's play a little devil's advocate. The Red Raiders put in the NIL money and dipped into the transfer portal enough to give themselves a chance at the dance. It definitely could come together, but several factors are at play to make the CFP happen.
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Here's why Texas Tech could very well earn a CFP berth, and why the Red Raiders won't get it done.
What Texas Tech football must do to earn a College Football Playoff berth
1. Win the Big 12 championship
Pretty straightforward here. Win the Big 12 Conference championship and the Red Raiders are in the College Football Playoff thanks to the automatic berth. Seems simple, right? Well, it's trickier than that, and requires a lot of things to break their way, most of which are in their own control.
2. Clobber Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State
There can under no circumstances be any sort of shenanigans in the first two weeks of the season. Last year's opener against Abilene Christian was eye-opening , but ACU wound up being pretty good. Whether Arkansas-Pine Bluff winds up a passable team or not is irrelevant. Same for Kent State. Anything short of blowouts of 30, maybe 40 points or more in either game won't bode well.
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3. Go undefeated at home
Texas Tech's home slate is more than manageable. Though there was no official preseason Big 12 poll — because Arizona State ruined it for everyone, somehow, I guess — the Red Raiders welcome Oregon State, Kansas, UCF, BYU and Oklahoma State to Jones AT&T Stadium . None of these teams should, feasibly, have the talent to match Texas Tech. Don't have to be blowouts, but comfortable wins are a must here.
4. No more than two road losses
All of the Red Raiders' marquee games are on the road, and those have proven very difficult over the years. Texas Tech hasn't won the first road game of a season since 2018, running through both Matt Wells' and Joey McGuire's respective tenures as head coach. Losing at Utah in Week 4 is generally fine. From there, Texas Tech has to win at least three of its other four road games: at Houston, Arizona State, Kansas State and West Virginia. Getting to a third regular-season loss would be doomsday for any potential at-large hopes, should the Big 12 title not happen.
J'Koby Williams rushes against Cole Wisniewski during the Texas Tech football team's spring game, Saturday, April 19, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Why Texas Tech football won't make the College Football Playoff
Here are the arguments to why each of these four musts won't happen, adding up to cause Texas Tech to miss out of the College Football Playoff field.
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1. Other teams in the Big 12 are also good
Iowa State and Kansas State proved in Week 0 the Big 12's schtick his here to stay. Every game is chaos, and just when you think you have the league figured out, something wild happens. Utah, Baylor, Arizona State and Tech are four other teams that have been projected to win the conference. There's no telling which ones will get to Arlington.
2. Reserves could give up some garbage-time points in first two weeks
The Red Raiders should be able to coast in their first two games and give plenty of run to their young players. However, Texas Tech has to balance two things: avoiding injury to their top players in mostly meaningless minutes and getting every possible data point in their favor. The CFP committee will look at any possible angle to nick the Big 12 when it comes to seeding the field, and if Tech wins by 21 instead of 35 against Kent State because the reserves gave up a couple scores late, that could ding them in the long run. Conspiracy? It's just the facts.
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3. Texas Tech rarely wins every home game
Not all schedules are created equal. However, in the 100 years of Texas Tech football history, the Red Raiders have only won every home game in a season 12 times: 1931, 1932, 1938, 1940, 1941, 1946, 1951, 1965, 1973, 1995, 2005 and 2008. There was also a tie in 1954.
4. History doesn't favor the Red Raiders on the road
Texas Tech has never visited Utah, lost both meetings with Arizona State in Tempe, is 2-8 all-time in Manhattan, Kansas, and 3-3 all-time at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have won four of their last five visits to Houston to play to Cougars, though, so that's a positive.
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5. Bonus: The Big 12 stigma
Let's say Texas Tech makes the Big 12 title game and loses, as I have projected multiple times now. Short of the championship contest being only Tech's first or second loss of the season, the stigma around the flip-a-coin conference wouldn't help the Red Raiders' case. When teams in the SEC jockey position all year, it's considered the best league in the country. When the Big 12 does it, it's because the league isn't very good. Welcome to the new college football landscape!
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Can Texas Tech football make the College Football Playoff? Here's how
