Perhaps the most believable projection for the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars is first-year head coach Liam Coen will make Trevor Lawrence a better quarterback .
How much better, and how quickly, are questions that have only speculative conclusions at the moment.
But given what Coen did in one season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator and play-caller with another former No. 1 overall draft pick at quarterback, Baker Mayfield , there's plenty of reason for optimism.
Let's be honest about one thing: the biggest reason Coen was hired by owner Shad Khan is the belief he has the offensive acumen and ingenuity to help Lawrence reach his vast potential.
More: Why 2 Jacksonville Jaguars greats have harder road to Pro Football Hall of Fame
The Jaguars are counting on Coen to energize the offense, as he did with astounding success in Tampa . Just keep in mind, the talent and circumstances he walked into with the Buccaneers were much more favorable than what awaits Coen in Jacksonville.
Except for Brian Thomas Jr. , the dynamic rookie receiver who may well go down as former general manager Trent Baalke's most valued draft pick, the Jaguars' offense (or defense, for that matter) is not overflowing with elite, or even very good, players. And who knows if receiver Christian Kirk or tight end Evan Engram will both return for an encore .
Unlike the Buccaneers, who put together a stout offensive line with last year's acquisitions of first-round draft pick Graham Barton at center and free agent guard Ben Bredeson , the Jaguars' unit needs a considerable upgrade.
Coen was able to elevate Tampa's offense across the board — allowing Mayfield to have career-high numbers in every pertinent passing category despite an NFL-high 18 turnovers — because his quarterback had the support of a legitimate running game. With Coen pushing the buttons, the Bucs' ground attack went from 32nd in the league (88.8 yards per game) to fourth (149.2 yards).
That happened in part because Coen figured out how to utilize his personnel and put them in position to succeed, but it helped immensely that he had really good players at so many positions.
The Jaguars' new general manager, expected to be hired within the next 48 hours , and scouting department need to significantly bolster Coen's roster on both sides of the ball.
NFL FREE AGENCY: Jaguars free agents: Which players will be available in 2025 NFL offseason?
Otherwise, Lawrence, even if he stays healthy, may be limited in how much he can elevate the Jaguars' bland product.
Give Coen, Trevor time to adapt
Among the best things Coen did in his first season as an NFL play-caller was he played to his players' strengths.
Coen didn't insist on doing things one way. He made sure Mayfield felt comfortable so the offense, which led the league in third-down conversion rate at 51.1 percent, stayed ahead of the sticks.
When standout receiver Chris Godwin missed the last 10 games with a dislocated ankle, which coincided with all-time leading receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) missing three games, the Bucs' offense still averaged reasonably close to their season average of 29.5 points per game, a massive increase from 20.5 ppg in 2023.
All that bodes well for upgrading a Trevor-led offense, but circumstances for Coen are such that it could take a while for the Jaguars' offense to start clicking.
For one, he can't focus 100 percent of his job on simply game-planning the offense. Coen has a lot more on his plate as a head coach, which is a huge adjustment.
When Coen went to Tampa, it was his second time working with Mayfield, having prepared him to be the starter as the Los Angeles Rams ' coordinator in 2022. After Rams starter Matthew Stafford missed the last five games with a concussion and spinal cord contusion, Mayfield filled in admirably and resurrected his career before flourishing in Tampa.
It's a different dynamic for Coen and Lawrence. Not only do they have no previous working relationship, but the Jaguars have somewhat of a rebuilding situation and a mostly new coaching staff.
When Coen went to the Bucs to mentor Mayfield, that team was coming off two NFC South titles and pushed the Detroit Lions to the wire in a 2023 road divisional playoff loss. After 18 losses in the past 23 games, the Jaguars are in a much different place.
It's quite possible Coen, after helping Mayfield rediscover his love for the game in LA, will be a godsend for Lawrence, but he needs to do his part by being a better instinctual quarterback in big moments.
Coen will likely throw a lot more deception and pre-snap motion at defenses than the Jaguars ever did under predecessor Doug Pedersonand OC Press Taylor. Look for the Jaguars' offense to be far less predictable.
Just remember, a snap of the finger doesn't transform an NFL franchise. It's a lot easier for Liam Coen to look like an offensive wizard when Trevor gets settled in his system and has better players around him.
Jaguars targeting quality coach/GM prospects
Judging by The Athletic's NFL 50 under 40 list, which identifies young rising coaches, executives and other personalities it believes will impact the league in the coming decades, the Jaguars did an admirable job of targeting the right people as it went about restructuring the organization.
Nine of the 50 NFL people listed as young risers were either hired by the Jaguars or interviewed for the positions of head coach, defensive coordinator, offensive coordinator and general manager.
Coen, 39, is on The Athletic list, as well as offensive coordinator Grant Udinski (29). Three of the five finalists for the GM position — Ian Cunningham(39), James Gladstone(34) and Josh Williams(37) — also made the list, along with Trey Brown(39), who was among the 10 GM candidates that went through the first round of interviews.
In addition, former Jaguars player Jacques McClendon (36), the agent for both Coen and Cunningham, made the list. So did Aubrey Pleasant(34), who interviewed for the DC job that went to Anthony Campanile.
No matter how the Jaguars fare in the coming years, it's obvious Khan and EVP Tony Boselli are pursuing elite young candidates who are highly regarded in NFL circles.
gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars hope Liam Coen can help Trevor Lawrence just like Baker Mayfield
