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Kingerski: Is Dubas Roster Strategy Backfiring or On Target?
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- Kingerski: Is Dubas Roster Strategy Backfiring or On Target?
Kingerski: Is Dubas Roster Strategy Backfiring or On Target?
LOS ANGELES —The Pittsburgh Penguins played their best game of the season in their 3-0 shutout win in the season opener against the New York Rangers .
They followed that up with an entertaining, though perhaps not structured affair against the New York Islanders , who were playing their first game of the season.
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The last couple of games have not been as successful.
As teams have begun to settle into the season, it seems the Penguins are behind. They've lost their last two games, and there has yet to be a sense of calm or comfortable structure to the Penguins' game.
This writer and players disagreed Tuesday over the quality of the team game. Sidney Crosby and Ryan Shea felt the team played well.
"Good, I mean it's you know, it's four games in, but I think we've got more and more comfortable (with the system)," Crosby said. "Yeah, for the for the most part (we're playing well), but we've got to find a way to translate that into wins though."
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"I think day-by-day we're getting better and better with (the system), andyou can tell that it works. You can tell it's there," Shea said. "We're scoring goals. Goalies are playing grea. We've got to clean up the little areas."
Coach Dan Muse was more nuanced as he explained that there were some parts of the game they would take and build on.
Despite the advanced analytics that were friendly to the Penguins on Tuesday (54% of scoring chances and 75% of high danger chances, per NaturalStatTrick.com ), the general feeling of the game was that Anaheim had the much better chances. The Anaheim power play was far more potent as it backed the Penguins' penalty kill below the dots and shredded them with passes that put shooters in scoring positions.
In Game 4 of an 82-game season, it would be foolish to say a new coach was outcoached. No, the team is still settling and learning. In fact, as PHN talked to one defenseman on Tuesday, he admitted that he still has to overwrite some previous systems thinking, and the coaches have been good about correcting him.
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However, with so many new faces, new coaches, and a new system, that seems to be expected.
Zero fault to the Penguins coaches and players.
Zero.
No, it seems for all of the good drafting and secondary acquisitions that seem to be on target, general manager Kyle Dubas made a pair of mistakes that have hindered the process.
The first mistake was stuffing the training camp roster to maximum capacity, and then adding a few more.
The move set up a competitive training camp, which Muse seemed to very much enjoy.
"I love competition," he beamed.
But it also took more than a week before the Penguins got to special teams work. They began the preseason schedule without yet having PK work or power play time in practice.
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Conversely, new coach Rick Tocchet with the Philadelphia Flyers began installing his system on Day 1. Muse had to wait a couple of weeks before the practices were manageable enough to begin that work.
It's showing now as the team is behind.
The players seem to love Muse's system. They also seem to really … really like Muse, who might be raising the bar on what it means to be a rink rat. He's a teacher at heart and there are whispered tales of the extra work he's putting in with players.
But the team is behind nonetheless, and it's become apparent over the last two games as other teams have been more structured and efficient, especially on special teams.
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The Anaheim power play was ruthlessly effective and decided the game. The Rangers power play wasn't as ruthless, but it was efficient and successful, which broke open an otherwise closer game.
The Penguins are also not drawing power plays which comes full circle to their looser play; they're not hemming opponents in the zone and pressuring them to take penalties. The Penguins only had one power play Tuesday and that was an automatic penalty because Anaheim challenged a goal for offside and lost.
Roster?
Dubas made a few curious roster choices for the final 23-man show.
In camp and preseason, Robby Fabbri seemed to be a competent NHL forward, but the team released him from his PTO. The Penguins also sent prospects Tristan Broz , Avery Hayes, and Owen Pickering to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.
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Eventually, so, too was Ville Koivunen .
The thing most of the departed players all have in common is being immediately better suited to available roles than players whom the team ultimately kept.
(Broz is the exception as Ben Kindel has done quite well in the third-line center spot).
Dubas eschewed Fabbri, who was skating well and working hard. Fabbri has been a 0.5 points per game player for his nine-year NHL career. That's quite a bit better than the Penguins' third line, which twice in four games has seen emerging rookie talent Ben Kindel between former Nashville Predators Tommy Novak and Philip Tomasino .
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In Novak's last two seasons with Nashville, he had 22 points in 54 and 52 games, respectively. His role had dropped to the bottom six after the organization wasn't satisfied with his production higher in the lineup.
Counting last season, Tomasino has seven points in his last 20 games, and removing his hot start in which he had four points in his first five games with the Penguins, despite significant top-six time, Tomasino had 19 points (8-11-19) in 45 games.
Marking the dichotomy between analytics and reality are the scoring chance stats. With Tomasino and Novak, the Kindel line has 14 scoring chances in 20 5v5 minutes, a 60% ratio, and no goals.
With Novak and Filip Hallander , the line has nine scoring chances in 15 minutes but two goals.
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The eye test can explain that discrepancy. The stat sheets cannot.
Perhaps Dubas's roster management is not a mistake but a different strategy. If it were all about wins, several of the players who are not currently would indeed be on the roster, and vice versa.
Make no mistake, Dubas is doing a lot of good things as the Penguins GM. Drafting has been exponentially better, if not great, highlighted by Ben Kindel and Harrison Brunicke. Free agents such as Justin Brazeau and Parker Wotherspoon seem to be real finds. The work and the resources that the organization is putting into player performance and sports science is a streets ahead.
Is it asset management over performance, hoping shrewd management will yield more assets via trade or helping second-chance players with higher ceilings find their potential at the expense of the immediate?
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After all, Fabbri-Kindel-Hallander would be a solid third line, with more center depth, too.
Dubas is doing well to revamp the organization and get ahead of the competition, which makes this writer wonder why other decisions have been made that do not make the team better–Wonder whether they are big mistakes or bigger strategy.
The post Kingerski: Is Dubas Roster Strategy Backfiring or On Target? appeared first on Pittsburgh Hockey Now .
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