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Latest CFP rankings prediction shows Miami chasing Notre Dame, and SMU moves in
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- Latest CFP rankings prediction shows Miami chasing Notre Dame, and SMU moves in
Ohio State's schedule being what it is, I'd forgive you if you haven't watched much of the Buckeyes , but you're missing out on an elite defense .
Ohio State ran its win streak to 15 straight by suffocating Rutgers, 42-9 .
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The Buckeyes are allowing 7.9 points per game. That figure probably won't hold, because the competition is about to ramp up, but Ohio State has an outside shot of being the first team since 2011 Alabama to limit opponents to fewer than 10 points per game.
Courtesy of that defense, Ohio State remains atop my latest College Football Playoff projections, but there's some movement down-ballot after an eventful weekend in the ACC, and with drama swirling around Mississippi .
Note: This is not a prediction of how this week's rankings will look. It's also not a modeling of how the bracket would look if the season ended today. Rather, I'm projecting forward. This reflects how I think the selections will look come selection Sunday in December.
1. Ohio State (Big Ten)
Missing star wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate , Ohio State let Rutgers compete with it State for one half, but the Buckeyes' defense made it so the outcome was never in doubt. Now here comes Ryan Day's chance to tend to his Michigan problem . For the Wolverines , there's more at stake than bragging rights. An upset would pressure the committee for a playoff bid.
2. Texas A&M (SEC)
The hay is in the barn for the Aggies to make their first playoff appearance. Now, it's about seeding. In what could be a season of firsts, Texas A&M beating Texas on Black Friday would secure the Aggies' first appearance in the SEC Championship. Beat Texas, and the Aggies probably would be positioned for a first-round bye regardless of the outcome in Atlanta.
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3. Indiana (at-large)
Indiana's October win at Oregon looks even better after the Ducks toppled Southern California. If quarterback Fernando Mendoza plays well against Purdue and in the Big Ten Championship, he'll position himself to become Indiana's first Heisman Trophy winner. Curt Cignetti's success remains an inspiration for every program hiring for a new coach.
4. Texas Tech (Big 12)
Texas Tech remains undefeated with quarterback Behren Morton in the lineup, but the defense is the headline ticket in Lubbock. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark recently applauded the committee's rankings respect for his conference, but the Red Raiders winning the Big 12 could turn it into a one-bid league. The committee can put respect on conference championship games by awarding a bye to Texas Tech.
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5. Georgia (at-large)
Kirby Smart wants to win 'em all, so he won't admit Georgia missing the SEC Championship might be an advantage in the long run . Being seeded No. 5 instead of No. 4 could be a blessing, too, allowing a first-round tune-up against the Group of Five qualifier, before a tough quarterfinal game. No matter how you view it, Georgia is playing the best it has all season.
6. Oregon (at-large)
Oregon's impressive performance against USC quieted doubts about its resume. The Ducks' lone blemish came against Indiana, and the committee loves such "good losses." Combine all that with the uncertainty swirling around Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin , and the committee will have fuel to bump the surging Ducks ahead of the Rebels in the bracket. Only rival Washington stands between Oregon and a first-round home game.
7. Mississippi (at-large)
This Egg Bowl, the morning after Thanksgiving, has all the ingredients for a season-ruining finish. The cowbells will be clanging in Starkville, and Kiffin might have one and a half feet out the door . And yet, the Rebels have been a portrait of steadiness, even as speculation swirls about their coach's future. Do you think red-hot quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will let a little thing like Kiffin fleeing ruin the climax to his heroic season?
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8. Oklahoma (at-large)
Oklahoma is one more defensive gem away from a playoff bid, and the Sooners will host offensively-challenged LSU. Vegas bookmakers may struggle to encourage betters to take the over. Oklahoma lacks the balance the committee craves, but if it reaches 10-2 against this robust schedule, then it'll have earned a first-round home game, thanks to road wins against Alabama and Tennessee.
9. Notre Dame (at-large)
This committee cannot resist a team that keeps acing the eye test and has a pair of all-important "good losses." Jeremiyah Love is running his way toward New York City, and Notre Dame's defense shows little resemblance to the unit that got picked apart in losses to Miami and Texas A&M. To wit, the Irish led Syracuse by 21 points before their offense even took the field. Notre Dame's 70-7 rout of Syracuse spoiled Miami's day, even though the Hurricanes won their own game by three scores .
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10. Alabama (at-large)
Auburn is the first threat to Alabama's playoff spot. Brigham Young winning the Big 12 and turning that conference into a two-bid league is the next threat. A blowout loss in the SEC Championship is the other landmine the Tide must avoid. All to say Alabama's got the stickiest path to the playoff of any team listed in this projection. If Kalen DeBoer loses the Iron Bowl, the natives will be more than restless. They'll be livid.
11. SMU (ACC)
No ACC team is playing better lately than SMU. Georgia Tech's loss to Pittsburgh gave the Mustangs a clean path to the conference championship game. Beat California, and SMU will advance to Charlotte for what would amount to a play-in game. This team has no tenable at-large opportunity. It must stay hot and win its next two games.
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12. Tulane (Group of Five)
Tulane's Jon Sumrall is the hottest name on the coaching carousel west of Oxford, Mississippi, creating the possibility of a lame-duck coach leading the Group of Five's entry into the playoff. No matter Sumrall's plans, the committee can't ignore Tulane, so long as the Green Wave win the American, after they beat the Power Four's Duke and Northwestern.
First teams out:Miami, BYU
Dropping out from last week's projection:Georgia Tech
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP bracket prediction: Miami chasing Notre Dame, SMU in, Alabama in danger
