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Minnesota Twins Flamethrower Struggling to Find Heat
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- Minnesota Twins Flamethrower Struggling to Find Heat
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
Last season, the Minnesota Twins kicked off the regular season without their star closer, Jhoan Duran , after he was forced onto the injured list by a Spring Training oblique injury . That left the team to navigate the early part of 2024 without the most dominant closer in baseball in their bullpen. When he returned, he wasn't the same guy.
Duran posted a career-low 3.64 ERA in 54 1/3 innings, last season. While his 2.85 FIP was in line with his career average, the same could not be said about his 10.9 SO/9 (down from 12.1 in 2023) or his career high 3.64 ERA. Without context, those numbers look pretty damn good, but zoom out and they reveal a concerning trend since Duran made his MLB debut in 2022..
| Season |
IP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
FIP |
WHIP |
H/9 |
SO/9 |
RA/9 |
WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 |
67.2 |
1.86 |
210 |
2.52 |
0.975 |
6.7 |
11.8 |
2.00 |
2.9 |
| 2023 |
62.1 |
2.45 |
179 |
3.21 |
1.139 |
6.6 |
12.1 |
3.61 |
1.9 |
| 2024 |
54.1 |
3.64 |
114 |
2.85 |
1.160 |
8.0 |
10.9 |
4.97 |
0.2 |
In 2025, the Twins need Duran to regain the unrelenting confidence that last summer's injury issues took away from him . Manager Rocco Baldelli is counting on him to reassert his dominance at the back end of the bullpen, where his electric arsenal can once again lock down games and anchor Minnesota's late-inning plans.
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This Spring, Jhoan Duran has already taken the Grapefruit League mound three different times for the Twins. Unfortunately, his heater has not yet returned to what it was in 2023 , when the 6'5″, 230 lb Dominican averaged a blistering 101.8 MPH with his 4-seamer.
Jhoan Duran lacking velocity at Minnesota Twins Spring Training
Velocity isn't everything, even in today's MLB, but for the 27-year-old Duran, the heater is what makes him… him. That's why it was a bit concerning last season, when he returned from his oblique injury, and his fastball averaged a career-low 100.5 mph .
Credit: FanGraphs
While that still ranked Duran among the hardest throwers in baseball (min. 500 pitches), trailing only elite flamethrowers like Ben Joyce (102.1 mph) and a healthy Mason Miller (100.9 mph), it made a difference in his ability to get outs, as the numbers reveal above.
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So, after an offseason of getting healthy, Duran was hoping to see his velocity go back up to where it was in 2023. Instead, through three appearances so far, that velocity has gone the opposite direction. In fact, Jhoan Duran has yet to hit triple digits down in Florida.
He threw his hardest pitch yesterday , a 99.7 mph four-seamer vs Orioles ' young stud, Jackson Holliday . His average four-seamer velocity is all the way down to 98.6 mph. And the consequences have been very similar to what we saw in 2024 — a 3.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP… and only one strikeout in 12 batters faced .
Related: Minnesota Twins Pitcher Hurt During Spring Training Game Again
Nobody likes to admit when there's cause for concern about a key player's performance, especially a proven arm like Jhoan Duran. Yet it's hard to ignore the numbers: a reliever who once unleashed 104 mph heaters hasn't touched triple digits this spring. And, last year averaged a full mile per hour slower than he did the year before.
Jhoan Duran's max fastball velocity in his first spring training game with Statcast data available:
2025 — 98.9 mph (February 22)
2024 — 100.5 mph (February 28)
2023 — 102.5 mph (February 25)— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) February 22, 2025
It's entirely possible that Duran is building slowly with the intention of unleashing his heater as the season gets started, but could that bring up other questions about preparedness? We can't be certain, but it's definitely something that will be a hot topic once the regular season begins.
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Duran claims he is not worried
After his appearance on Wednesday, Duran was asked about his lack of velocity, by the Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale . His answer pretty much: 'Give it time, there are other ways to get dudes out.'
"I focus more on my mechanics and my pitches' movement. I don't need to throw really hard right now. Maybe in the [regular season] I throw harder, or maybe not."
Duran is reportedly working on a new pitch , a changeup, which would certainly help get batters out, if he can master it. To this point in his career, Duran has been a four-seam, splinker, and curveball guy. In theory, a solid changeup would be the perfect partner for a 100+ mph heater.
Jhoan Duran, 101mph Fastball and 88mph Curveball, Individual Pitches + Overlay.
He's baaaack. 😳 pic.twitter.com/sdxpwTAzCT— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 1, 2024
Last season, Griffin Jax stepped up and assumed the role as the bullpen's top reliever . If the Twins can have that tandem working in unison, both at their peak, they'll have one of the best shutdown combinations in baseball. If they are going to have one of the better bullpens as a whole , it all starts at the back end with Duran.
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Related: Minnesota Twins Flamethrower Has a New Pitch
The Minnesota Twins are going to do everything they can to continue building Duran up during Spring Training to make sure he's ready on Opening Day. He'll look to go into the year strong proving that last season's injuries were just a one off. From there, it comes down to execution and how his arsenal works, with whatever fastball velocity he has.
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