The NASCAR schedule this weekend takes us to Dover Motor Speedway, delivering the Round of 4 in the NASCAR In-Season Challenge and a pivotal points race as the regular season winds down. With the Cup Series headed back to an oval course, a sense of normalcy should return to the track this weekend.
Let's dive into our NASCAR predictions for Sunday's Cup Series race at Dover Motor Speedway.
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Ty Dillon feels inevitable at this point. No one expected the lowest-seeded driver to make it out of Round 1, but a wreck took out Denny Hamlin. In Round 2, a crash at the Chicago Street Race took out Brad Keselowski and allowed Dillon to automatically advance. Then at Sonoma, Dillon bumped Alex Bowman to slip past his competitor to punch his ticket to the Round of 4. We're not betting against fate at this point. John Hunter Nemechek hasn't been particularly great at Dover anyway, so both the numbers and destiny suggest that Dillon's cinderella story continues.
Related: NASCAR entry list for Dover Motor Speedway
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This is much more the caliber of matchup people expected when the NASCAR In-Season Challenge seedings were revealed. Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs have both earned their way here, and they aren't just battling for the $1 million prize—there is also a playoff spot up for grabs. Gibbs is coming off consecutive top-10 finishes and has posted the second-best average finishing position ( 8.5 ) over the last six races. Notably, Gibbs also boasts a better average finishing position than Reddick (11.5 to 14.5) in the Cup Series at Dover Motor Speedway. Both drivers will finish inside the top 16, but Gibbs (13th) edges out Reddick (15th) to advance.
Read More: Winners, Losers from Cup Series race at Sonoma
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Ross Chastain didn't have the car to win at Sonoma Raceway, so his team played for the Stage 1 win and got a playoff point out of it. While he'll be more of a factor in the finish on Sunday at Dover, the No. 1 car will still fall well short of reaching victory lane. However, Chastain will deliver his second consecutive week with a stage win, giving him 10 stage points and the all-important playoff point.
Related: NASCAR predictions for final regular-season races, including Dover
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It now feels like there is a portion of NASCAR fans who are waiting for Shane van Gisbergen to fail on ovals. That's what winning three races in the last five weeks and blowing away the competition on road courses will do to the fan bases of your competitors. SVG has made real strides on ovals this season, more consistently working into the top 20 late in races. However, this is his first trip to Dover Motor Speedway in the Cup Series, and that will come with its own adjustments. He'll finish outside the top 25, which will be only the second time that's happened since Talladega.
Related: Insane Shane van Gisbergen stats from his road course dominance
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It's been a pretty rough summer for Kyle Larson, at least by his standards, and he hasn't seemed quite right since his attempt at "The Double" ended in a pair of wrecks. The turnaround is coming on Sunday. Larson is going to turn an outstanding starting position into a stage win, which he will then carry over into his first top-five finish since Michigan. When all is said and done, Larson will walk away with the highest points total from Sunday's race at Dover.
Related: NASCAR standings 2025, NASCAR playoff standings
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The winless streak for Kyle Busch is closing in on 80 starts. Unfortunately for the No. 8 team, we don't see him snapping it on Sunday. While that means he'll still be battling for a playoff spot based on points, Sunday's EchoPark Automotive 400 will get him a little closer. Coming off consecutive top-10 finishes with 76 total points, Busch will make it three consecutive weeks and add 30-plus points to his total, narrowing the gap between him and Bubba Wallace.
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There might not be a driver happier to be headed to Dover than Denny Hamlin. He won the Würth 400 last year, marking his second top-five finish in three races at the track in the Next Gen era. The No. 11 car has also been performing exceptionally well in qualifying on ovals lately, delivering three consecutive top-three starting positions from Nashville through Pocono. Hamlin has always said that a great qualifying effort is usually a strong sign that he has a higher-than-average shot at winning. He'll be near the top of the starting grid on Sunday, turning it into his fourth win of the season.
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