Story by
NBA Rookies Haven’t Exceeded Their Meager Expectations
- Story by
- NBA Rookies Haven’t Exceeded Their Meager Expectations
Sometimes the NBA Rookie of the Year race features highly touted prospects like Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren , or Luka Dončić and Trae Young . This season, it comes down to Stephon Castle , Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher —a trio of players who despite moments of brilliance did not statistically stand up to top predecessors.
During the 2024 NBA Draft, analysts predicted a weak 2024-25 rookie class. In terms of scoring, at least, they were right. Only five rookies in the 2024-25 regular season averaged double-digit points per game—there were at least eight in each season since 2017-18, and the post-NBA/ABA merger record is 14.
Advertisement
More from Sportico.com
The average NBA player this season scored 17.0 points per 36 minutes on the court, but the average rookie scored just 13.7. That gap of -3.3 is the largest of any of the past 40 seasons.
It's not as if this season's youngsters were picking their spots with greater efficiency on that lower volume. The league's average true shooting percentage in 2024-25 was 57.6%, while first-year players collectively shot only 53.7%. That disparity is the largest since 1990-91, when that season's rookies shot 4.4 percentage points below the NBA average.
The decline of rookie scoring, though, is a broader trend. Of the past 40 seasons, nine of the bottom 10 in rookie scoring frequency, according to the aforementioned calculation, have occurred since 2013-14. Similarly, eight of the bottom 10 years ranked by rookie scoring efficiency have also come during that recent time span.
Players are on average entering the league younger than ever before, even though the ability to jump straight from high school as Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett once did no longer exists. As NBA paychecks have gotten bigger, projected high lottery picks have been incentivized to be one-and-done in college, though NIL and revenue sharing under the pending House settlement could alter that equation. Additionally, there's been an increase in international prospects declaring for the draft at a younger age.
Advertisement
The five youngest rookie classes in NBA history (weighted by minutes played) are 2023, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2025. Naturally, these less-experienced players are having more difficulty adjusting to the NBA.
Using a more holistic metric than simply scoring, however, this year's rookie class appears to be weak, but not a historical outlier. The rookies this season accumulated 0.054 win shares per 48 minutes—the ninth lowest of the past 40 seasons, but still significantly above recent seasons such as 2014, 2015 and 2017, as well as the infamously unproductive 2001 cohort.
In xRAPM , another all-in-one individual player statistic created by Jeremias Engelmann, three players who debuted this season graded out as having a greater-than-average impact on their teams—the Memphis Grizzlies ' Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells , along with the Portland Trail Blazers ' Donovan Clingan . Three may sound low, especially when compared to eight in 2023-24, but the average for a season is typically around four such rookies, and two seasons ago there was only one: the Utah Jazz 's Walker Kessler .
Advertisement
Rookie performance isn't necessarily correlated with future success, especially for teenagers, such as Sarr and fellow Washington Wizards lottery pick Bub Carrington (No. 1 overall pick Risacher also just turned 20). A list of recent lottery picks who posted a negative xRAPM in their rookie season includes Giannis Antetokounmpo , Trae Young, Jalen Brunson , Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham .
And if nobody from the 2024-25 rookie class ever pans out, the NBA still has next season—and Cooper Flagg .
Best of Sportico.com
Sign up for Sportico's Newsletter . For the latest news, follow us on Facebook , Twitter , and Instagram .
