NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 3: Division matchups and a Backup Bowl

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NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 3: Division matchups and a Backup Bowl

Tim Crean, ClutchPoints

Thu, Sep 18, 2025 ·

11 min read

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The post NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 3: Division matchups and a Backup Bowl appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The 2025 NFL season is starting to settle in as Week 3 is now upon us. To kick off the festivities, we get an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins that the oddsmakers see as a blowout. Despite that, there is a solid slate ahead, so let's jump right into the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column.

The more data points we have as bettors, the easier picking games becomes. Teams are starting to settle into their true identities, so it's a little easier to figure out what a game will look like. That said, Vegas is full of high-rise casinos for a reason, and the line-setters are still incredible at what they do.

What you can start to count on is that the sharp bettors are still more locked in than the public, so fading the latter is a good strategy. If the percentage of money coming in on one side is opposite the percentage of bets made on the other, that's a good sign the John Q. Bettor is about to take a bath.

Fading the public helped the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column get to a winning record both straight up and against the spread after a quality Week 2.

In Week 3, we enjoy the most balanced slate we will see all year. We get the Thursday night matchup, nine early-window Sunday games, four in the late window, a Sunday night affair, and one Monday night showdown.

Week 2 got us back in action and over the summit of Mount .500. We only missed on two games straight up, going 14-2 picking winners. Against the number, we hit at a 69% clip, going 11-5 with the spread. That brings us to 25-7 straight up and 18-14 ATS on the season.

Previous weeks: Week 1 | Week 2

So, let's get right into the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds .

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5)

Josh Allen and the Bills are a juggernaut right now after their thrilling Week 1 comeback and their 20-point trouncing of the Jets last week. With the horrible football we've seen out of the 0-2 Dolphins right now, there is no reason to think that Buffalo won't win by at least two touchdowns here.

Pick:Bills 31-14

UPDATE: Well, the Bills won as expected and had the ball late with a chance to cover, but unfortunately, the team cared more about winning than covering the spread. Lame!

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (-3.5 -2.5)

Both of these teams looked disappointing in Week 2 after Week 1 wins. The Raiders beat the Patriots , then were outclassed by the Chargers , while the Commanders took care of the Giants easily before being taken care of with relative ease by the Packers .

This is still a game that the Commanders should win, but the Raiders have enough talent on the field to keep it close. The NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column will try to thread the needle on this one and take the Raiders if we can get the hook.

Pick:Commanders 20-17 Raiders 20-17

UPDATE: With the surprising news that Jayden Daniels will miss this Week 3 matchup, we are going to flip our pick with the new spread being Commaners by -2.5.

Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers

There are still plenty who doubt the Falcons after losing to the Buccaneers and drubbing the Vikings. Looking at this game, though, the Panthers are a lot closer to the latter than the former.

Atlanta's young pass-rush duo of James Pierce and Jalon Walker has certainly upgraded the defense. Michael Penix Jr. is doing a good job distributing the ball to his talented group of offensive weapons. This game should be a no-doubter for the Falcons.

Pick:Falcons 28-10

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Packers are quickly inking their place as one of the best teams in the league, with top-five-looking units on both side of the ball. And last week, we saw how the Browns should fare against one of the best teams in the league.

While the Browns defense is legit, but over the course of a 60-minute game, the Ravens were simply too much for them. Look for the Packers to do the same and win by double digits.

Pick:Packers 30-12

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at New England Patriots

The Steelers pulled off a nice win in Week 1, then threw up a duck in Week 2, while the Patriots did the opposite. So, which version of each team shows up in Foxborough on Sunday?

As the spread suggests, this game is a coin flip that could go either way, and the betting trends on the game are the same. The one interesting tidbit here is that Pats' pass-rusher Harold Landry Jr. is leading the league with 3.5 sacks in two games. If he and the rest of the NE D can pressure Rodgers, they could pull the upset.

Pick:Patriots 18-16

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles picked up where they left off last season, winning games in an unexciting way (for everyone but Philly fans). Without a dynamic, big-play passing game, though, they may have trouble in a shootout against a good offense.

This game should be fun to watch, and because of their ball control abilities, the Eagles are more likely to win the game than the Rams, but the LA will make their life tough, and this game is another in the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column where we'll take the hook and pick the Eagles by a field goal or less.

Pick:Eagles 24-23

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans

The Colts are the most surprising 2-0 team in football, but they've earned it with a dynamic running game, solid defense, and Daniel Jones playing smart enough to win. Now they take on a divisional foe with a rookie quarterback and the usual struggles that come along with it.

With the way things look right now, the Colts are the much better team, and the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column will give them the benefit of the doubt until they lay an egg and show we should proceed with more caution. This week, we'll take the Colts to roll again.

Pick:Colts 21-10

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)

The Jets were an iffy bet with Justin Fields at the helm, and now with the QB in concussion protocol and ruled out and Tyrod Taylor in, this looks even more like a Bucs blowout. Yes, the team didn't look great for 80% of their game against the Texans , but that was a tough team on the road. This is a wounded duck at home, and Baker Mayfield and company will roll.

Pick:Buccaneers 24-13

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Joe Burrow vs. J.J. McCarthy is going to be a bang— wait, what? OK, so Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz is going to be a banger!

This game is ugly, and its fans will suffer watching Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase suffer with quarterbacks who really shouldn't be starting. With two QBs like this, it's anyone's guess as to what will happen. What we think is that the Vikings' defense will carry the day, and Wentz is solid enough to score a few points. However, it is fun to watch "Jameis" Browning sling it all over the field.

Pick:Vikings 17-13

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

While both these teams have been disappointing so far this season, there is one unit that has shone above the rest. The Texans' defense has been excellent so far this season, as evidenced by its shutting down of Mayfield and the Bucs for the majority of their Monday night game.

The Jaguars are just their usual mess, and aren't getting (what most think) is the best out of Trevor Lawrence , Brian Thomas Jr. , Travis Hunter , or other incredibly high first-round picks. That's why, despite C.J. Stroud still struggling to connect to his weapons like he did in Year 1, we'll still take them straight up and against the spread.

Pick:Texans 21-20

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

The Saints are 0-2, and while they've kept their games relatively close, they haven't looked like a winning team at all. On the Seahawks' side, an easy win over the Steelers showed what they could be after a tough loss to the 49ers had hinted at something else.

Seattle is the better team, and they are at home, which is always a tough place to play. So, while New Orleans may not be as bad as expected, they shouldn't be able to keep this game under a touchdown in the end.

Pick:Seahawks 23-13

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers may have finally taken the leap into the upper echelon of the NFL by pivoting away from the power run game and letting Justin Herbert take over. The Broncos would love to be at that point with Bo Nix , but he hasn't shown that he's there yet this season.

In addition to the tantalizing offense, the Chargers' defense also looked like world beaters when they beat down the Raiders, so look for them to grab a firm hold of the AFC West by making light work of the Broncos after taking down their other two division mates.

Pick:Chargers 28-20

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

What if Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers picked Mac Jones after trading up in the 2021 NFL Draft instead of Trey Lance ? That's the question we may find the answer to toward the end of Week 3 as Jones hand the Niners take on the frisky, yet not totally impressive Cardinals.

The sharp money says that last week was an aberration, and the banged-up 49ers will not be able to sustain their winning ways with Jones under center. The Cardinals' defense should now have an idea about what this team looks like with their new QB, and tape like that can be bad news. The NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column wants to take the Cards to cover, so let's take them to win outright, too.

Pick:Cardinals 19-16

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Chicago Bears

The Bears are a hot mess, and even though the Cowboys didn't play the most inspiring game against the Giants last week, at least they proved they can score in bunches. Until Caleb Williams proves he has the skills, temperament, and smarts to play at the NFL level, the NFL Week 3 picks, predictions, and odds column will keep picking against him.

Plus, that Bears crowd could turn on its own team fast if they struggle out of the gates.

Pick:Cowboys 27-15

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at New York Giants

Russell Wilson had a career high last week as he threw the ball all over the field before throwing a patented back-breaking interception to lose the game in overtime. This, combined with the Chiefs' struggles, may lead you to believe the Giants will make this one close.

Wilson is not consistent anymore, though, and the Giants aren't likely to be as good as they were against an NFC West rival. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs need this one to right the ship, and they will get it easily in prime time.

Pick:Chiefs 32-22

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)

The Lions and Ravens should produce a good game to cap off the week on Monday night. Both teams have struggled at moments this season, but ultimately, they should be in the postseason when the dust settles.

While it may seem like the Ravens game to win in a landslide, the Lions aren't going out without a roar. This should be back and forth, and it would be no surprise if it came down to the wire. Baltimore needs a late win to rinse off the stink of Week 1, and they'll get it without covering.

Pick:Ravens 34-32

Establish the Pass Podcast Week 3 Predictions

Matchup	Blake	Dillon
MIA @ BUF	Bills	Bills
GB @ CLE	Packers	Packers
LAR @ PHI	Eagles	Eagles
ATL @ CAR	Falcons	Falcons
IND @ TEN	Colts	Colts
NYJ @ TB	Bucs	Bucs
LV @ WSH	Raiders	Commanders
PIT @ NE	Steelers	Steelers
CIN @ MIN	Bengals	Bengals
HOU @ JAX	Jaguars	Texans
NO @ SEA	Seahawks	Seahawks
DEN @ LAC	Chargers	Chargers
DAL @ CHI	Cowboys	Bears
ARI @ SF	49ers	Cardinals
KC @ NYG	Chiefs	Chiefs
DET @ BAL	Ravens	Ravens
Record	25-7	24-8

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