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Penguins 2025-26 Projection: Playoffs or Lottery Pick?
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- Penguins 2025-26 Projection: Playoffs or Lottery Pick?
Penguins 2025-26 Projection: Playoffs or Lottery Pick?
NEW YORK —The hopes for Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas to stride to the podium, or have an available celebrity do it for him to snag phenom Gavin McKenna first overall, are still within the realm of possibility, though the current swirling galaxy of comets and veterans still on the roster diminishes them greatly.
The Penguins find themselves in the unenviable spot of having an equal chance of a top-three draft pick and a second wild-card Stanley Cup playoff berth.
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The reason is simple. Sidney Crosby .
And being stuck in the middle lane of a highway with painfully slow trucks on the right and overrevved sports cars on the left is the reality when employing one of the greatest humans on metal blades to chase vulcanized rubber since Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky, and Mario Lemieux (who turned 60 on Sunday).
The Penguins' trades that were eagerly awaited instead turned into a summer of purgatorial rumors.
Penguins winger Bryan Rust quipped, "I spent the summer in Canada, I probably saw them more than you."
Indeed, the Penguins have largely remained the same from last season's disappointing playoff miss, their third straight.
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The most notable departures are defenseman Matt Grzelcyk and backup goalie Alex Nedeljkovic .
Rust, Rickard Rakell , Erik Karlsson … even Kevin Hayes and Noel Acciari returned.
Dubas did add several free agents, including left-side defenseman Parker Wortherspoon, big forward Justin Brazeau , and Anthony Mantha . The Penguins also acquired goalie Arturs Silovs .
Perhaps that list is all you need to decipher if Dubas is trying to win this season.
The rebuild is also beginning as 18-year-old center Ben Kindel will begin the season with the team, as will 19-year-old right side defenseman Harrison Brunicke .
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Those rookies will join Ville Koivunen and eventually Rutger McGroarty , who missed all of training camp with an upper-body injury.
One would also think defenseman Owen Pickering would join the NHL lineup, but he was rudely sent back to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at the end of training camp in favor of Caleb Jones , Connor Clifton , and Matt Dumba .
One wonders just what the organization thinks of Pickering.
Penguins Variables
If winning is the goal, health will be the key. The Penguins need Crosby healthy and happy if they're to make a charge in the Eastern Conference, just as they've done in each of the last two Marches.
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A Crosby injury would be a death knell to any hope for success this season.
The Penguins will also need much better from defenseman Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang . Letang wasn't himself last season, and it's a legitimate wonder if it was his health or age that pumped the brakes on his production.
Karlsson is another can of worms inside a kettle of fish. He is a riddle wrapped in an enigma inside a David Fincher movie.
The Penguins would seem to have replacements for both, should Karlsson be traded or Letang be ineffective, with Matt Dumba and Connor Clifton, though neither could provide the offensive push of the Penguins' stars.
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Goaltending?
The Penguins' goaltending does not appear to have improved this season. The Penguins are giving Silovs a shot to claim his NHL career after not seizing his chance last season with the Vancouver Canucks , then getting blocked behind Thatcher Demko and Kevin Lankinen .
Tristan Jarry is.
There's no need for more explanation or analysis because none is possible. He can be an All-Star goalie, as he has been twice, and he can be banished to the AHL, as he was last season.
He can start games with the confidence of an introvert at a Shriner's convention, then become an unbeatable wall, both in the same game. In short, Jarry is.
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Forwards
We can expect more of the same from Crosby, who is transitioning from stalwart to ageless wonder. At 38 years old, he shows no signs of slowing down. Expect him and his linemates to lead the Penguins in all offensive categories.
Crosby could easily score 30 goals with 50 assists. Rust could score 30 more goals. Koivunen could net 20 goals with 30 assists.
The Penguins will rise and fall based on what happens to the other nine players. Last season, Malkin created a good number of scoring chances, but had just 50 points in 68 games as his wingers bricked far too many chances against the goalie's crest.
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Will Mantha reverse the trend and improve upon the play of Philip Tomasino , who spent a lot of time beside Malkin? Can McGroarty?
Tomasino converted 13% fewer chances than average, which in turn suppressed Malkin's numbers. The rotating cast of wingers who lacked top-six qualifications did similar. Even Dubas seemed to express sympathy for Malkin following the season.
The Penguins' third line will be worth watching. Not only is Tomasino getting another chance, but coach Dan Muse has also placed fellow Nashville Predators castoff Tommy Novak as a third-line winger.
The recipient is Kindel, whose exemplary play at both ends of the rink in the preseason was a revelation that made a mockery of the near-universal draft day criticism of the pick (including from PHN).
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However, playing with perimeter players like Tomasino and Novak might be a bitter recipe for success. If Justin Brazeau or Rutger McGroarty joins the line, our analysis will change, much more so with McGroarty.
If Penguins coaches and management want to keep Kindel around beyond his nine-game entry-level contract limit, Muse may need to reconfigure his current lines.
Penguins Projections
The excitement of training camp has worn off, and through the cold reality of reclamation projects and poor fits, the Penguins are not a playoff team. They're not even close.
Dubas has not tanked, but rather given the team enough hope that Muse's "connected play" philosophy will be feasible. However, in the bright light of laying out the healthy lines, there's a lot to question.
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Rickard Rakell- Sidney Crosby -Ville Koivunen
Anthony Mantha-Evgeni Malkin-Bryan Rust
Tommy Novak-Ben Kindel-Rutger McGroarty
Connor Dewar-Blake Lizotte-Noel Acciari
Defense
Ryan Shea-Kris Letang
Parker Wortherspoon-Erik Karlsson
Caleb Jones-Harrison Brunicke
The Penguins' middle six is not as good as its competition. Perhaps some combination of Rust, Malkin, Kindel, and McGroarty can uphold their ends of the bargain, but to have all of them be as successful as the Penguins would need is asking too much.
A second line should have 60-point players. A third line should have a 20-goal scorer and 40-point players who kill penalties and shut down the opposition.
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No, the Penguins are much closer to the bottom, even as rays of sunshine for the future slam through the cloudy present.
We can also bet that Dubas will deal one or two veteran players this season, further clearing space for future players but weakening the present.
By April, our belief is the Penguins will be a bottom-10 team, probably close to 10th as they were last season. And the fates will fall as the ping pong balls see fit.
The post Penguins 2025-26 Projection: Playoffs or Lottery Pick? appeared first on Pittsburgh Hockey Now .
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