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Predicting the AP Top 25 Poll After Week 10
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- Predicting the AP Top 25 Poll After Week 10
As the final month of the regular season begins, it's hard not to look ahead to the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday. This weekend's results figure to factor into the CFP race in a big way as three top-10 teams lost and a handful of teams in need of a win took care of business.
Perhaps the most surprising result of the day was No. 10 Miami's 26-20 overtime defeat at SMU. It was the Hurricanes' second loss in the last three weeks following a 5-0 start, and it came on their first trip outside of Florida this season. Almost as shocking was No. 8 Georgia Tech falling 48-36 at NC State for its first loss of the year. The Yellow Jackets still have a path to the ACC Championship and the CFP, but their remaining schedule is rather difficult.
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No. 9 Vanderbilt was the other top-10 team to go down, as No. 20 Texas ' 34-31 win marked its third in a row by one score. The Commodores' last-ditch comeback effort came up just short, but they're not out of it just yet. Meanwhile, the Longhorns' kept their CFP hopes alive for the time being thanks to Arch Manning 's best game against an SEC team.
Elsewhere in the SEC, No. 18 Oklahoma delivered a crushing blow to No. 14 Tennessee , leaving Knoxville with a 33-27 win. John Mateer and the Sooners must run the table against a gauntlet, but they can still hope for a spot in the 12-team CFP. The Volunteers are out with a third loss.
Also of note in the Group of 5 race, North Texas knocked off previously undefeated Navy, 31-17. The Mean Green might make their first-ever appearance in the AP Top 25 this week, and their remaining schedule in the American is quite forgiving.
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Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer (10) scrambles with the ball against Tennessee during the second quarter at Neyland Stadium on Nov. 1, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Here's how Athlon Sports projects how the AP Top 25 will look with Week 10 in the rearview.
| Proj. Rank |
Team |
Record |
Result |
Prev. Rank |
Change |
| 1 |
8-0 |
W vs. Penn State (38-14) |
1 |
0 |
|
| 2 |
Indiana |
9-0 |
W at Maryland (55-10) |
2 |
0 |
| 3 |
Texas A&M |
8-0 |
Idle |
3 |
0 |
| 4 |
7-1 |
Idle |
4 |
0 |
|
| 5 |
Georgia |
7-1 |
W vs. Florida (23-20) |
5 |
0 |
| 6 |
7-1 |
Idle |
6 |
0 |
|
| 7 |
8-1 |
W vs. South Carolina (30-14) |
7 |
0 |
|
| 8 |
Texas Tech |
8-1 |
W at Kansas State (43-20) |
13 |
+5 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame |
6-2 |
W at Boston College (25-10) |
12 |
+3 |
| 10 |
8-0 |
Idle |
10 |
0 |
|
| 11 |
8-1 |
W at Cal (31-21) |
15 |
+4 |
|
| 12 |
7-1 |
W at Virginia Tech (28-16) |
16 |
+4 |
|
| 13 |
Georgia Tech |
8-1 |
L at NC State (48-36) |
8 |
-5 |
| 14 |
Texas |
7-2 |
W vs. Vanderbilt (34-31) |
20 |
+6 |
| 15 |
Oklahoma |
7-2 |
W at Tennessee (33-27) |
18 |
+3 |
| 16 |
Vanderbilt |
7-2 |
L at Texas (34-31) |
9 |
-7 |
| 17 |
Miami |
6-2 |
L at SMU (26-20) |
10 |
-7 |
| 18 |
Utah |
7-2 |
W vs. Cincinnati (45-14) |
24 |
+6 |
| 19 |
6-2 |
Idle |
19 |
0 |
|
| 20 |
Tennessee |
6-3 |
L vs. Oklahoma (33-27) |
14 |
-6 |
| 21 |
USC |
6-2 |
W at Nebraska (21-17) |
23 |
+2 |
| 22 |
7-2 |
W vs. Purdue (21-16) |
21 |
-1 |
|
| 23 |
Memphis |
8-1 |
W at Rice (38-14) |
25 |
+2 |
| 24 |
North Texas |
6-2 8-1 |
W vs. Navy (31-17) |
24 NR (34) |
+10 |
| 25 |
Cincinnati |
7-2 |
L at Utah (45-14) |
NR (34) |
-8 |
Dropped out of rankings: No. 22 Houston
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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Nov 2, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
