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Predicting who will be hired for each Power Four college football coaching vacancy
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- Predicting who will be hired for each Power Four college football coaching vacancy
Hugh Freeze's dismissal at Auburn leaves nine college football coaching openings in the Power Four, and only one can be filled by Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin .
Where Kiffin lands — or whether he opts to stay with the Rebels — represents a sliding-doors moment for multiple SEC programs. His decision will have an outsize impact on this year's coaching cycle, which could be the most chaotic in recent Bowl Subdivision history.
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The number of Power Four openings could easily double in size by early December, triggering a game of musical chairs that impacts every conference in the Bowl Subdivision.
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For now, USA TODAY Sports evaluates the landscape for these nine Power Four positions and predicts the hire for each program:
LSU: Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills
On one hand, you have one of the premier positions in the Power Four: LSU offers resources, a seemingly never-ending supply of local talent and the chance to quickly compete for national championships. On the other, you have a governor who has decided to insert himself into this search and a new athletics director, Verge Ausberry, after Scott Woodward's recent resignation. Despite the program's massive appeal, the changes in the athletics department are a concern.
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Kiffin is the Tigers' top option. In fact, you might make the case that Brian Kelly's midseason dismissal was heavily influenced by the desire to leap into the Kiffin sweepstakes and undercut rival Florida. At this point, though, Kiffin seems more likely to land in Gainesville.
Brady has been mentioned as a candidate at Penn State, where he once served as a graduate assistant. But he has deeper links to LSU, where he famously helped develop one of the top offenses in college football history during the Tigers' unbeaten 2019 season. These connections and the program's desire to overhaul a woeful offense have moved Brady up the list.
Florida: Lane Kiffin, Mississippi
The best odds at this moment have Kiffin either staying put or replacing Billy Napier with the Gators . One thing that can't be overlooked but has been largely ignored during the will-he-or-won't-he debate: Kiffin has established a consistent contender and might be drawn to finish what he's started after leading an itinerant coaching career before his arrival in Oxford.
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He'd clearly be a home run for the Gators, though he wouldn't be the first in recent history to earn that label — in one form or another, each of Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen and Napier were viewed the same way. But none of those coaches had won at Kiffin's level in the SEC.
If Kiffin does stay put, look for Florida to pivot to Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz. He shares many of same traits that have made Kiffin the hottest name in this year's coaching cycle and has the personality to handle the pressures of the position.
Mississippi football coach Lane Kiffin looks on during the fourth quarter of his team's game against Tulane at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Penn State: Manny Diaz, Duke
The dream hire would be Texas A&M coach Mike Elko, who has done an outstanding job orchestrating the No. 3 Aggies' best start since 1992. But while Elko has regional ties to Pennsylvania, he's more likely to leverage that opening to bolster his job security in College Station and acquire additional resources to put toward roster management.
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Diaz shares many of the same traits that make Elko a top candidate — a background on defense, experience as a Power Four head coach and experience at another high-pressure program at Miami — along with a strong grasp of what makes Penn State tick thanks to his two seasons as the Nittany Lions ' defensive coordinator. This combined package gives him the edge over less-proven but still intriguing candidates such as James Madison coach Bob Chesney and Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.
There are more than a few dark-horse candidates to consider. One is Tennessee coach Josh Heupel, who could be open to leaving Knoxville given that losses to one or both of Florida and Vanderbilt this month could do major damage to his job security heading into next season. Another to watch from the SEC is Clark Lea, though Penn State must be aware that hiring a second Vanderbilt coach in a row could be a non-starter.
Auburn: Jon Sumrall, Tulane
Auburn couldn't hire Kiffin three years ago and has zero shot now, especially with the program even longer removed from being part of the Top 25. The timing for another coaching search isn't great given the openings at Florida and LSU, though there's only marginal candidate crossover, mostly among Group of Five head coaches.
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One factor to keep in mind with this search and others is how athletics departments will very often course-correct from one hire to the next. Freeze and his predecessor, Bryan Harsin, arrived on the Plains as established FBS head coaches; that both were near-historic flops will make Auburn much more amenable to less-experienced candidates, especially sitting Power Four coordinators. That Harsin and Freeze came with an offensive pedigree means the Tigers could lean toward a coach with a defensive background, too.
One such candidate is Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. If the Tigers want to go in a different direction — like, a completely different direction — they could tap former Florida State and Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher. (If the search reaches that point, Auburn might as well bring back Gus Malzahn. Or Gene Chizik.)
Sumrall is a box-checking contender for multiple SEC openings, and in another year he might be the object of a bidding war between LSU and Florida. The second-year Tulane coach is a proven winner who knows the conference and would bring some much-needed energy to a program that sleepwalked through Freeze's three seasons.
One name that could pick up steam in the next few weeks is former Penn State coach James Franklin. Before his long run with the Nittany Lions, Franklin worked wonders over three seasons at Vanderbilt. He would be intrigued by the opportunity to rejoin the SEC.
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Arkansas: Dan Mullen, UNLV
The chances of Bobby Petrino earning the permanent job have dwindled considerably since he replaced Sam Pittman on an interim basis. Likewise with Arkansas' ideal candidate, SMU coach Rhett Lashlee, who recently signed an extension with the Mustangs. While Lashlee is likely off the board, the Razorbacks will evaluate candidates with a similar background, such as North Texas coach Eric Morris, Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield and South Florida coach Alex Golesh.
Currently in the mix for the Mountain West crown in his first year at UNLV, Mullen has a deep working knowledge of the SEC thanks to his time at Florida and Mississippi State. This experience gives Mullen tremendous credibility in the comparison to those Group of Five options and would make him a high-floor hire at a time when Arkansas is craving a steady hand to steer the program out of the SEC cellar.
UCLA: Tony White, Florida State
Interim coach Tim Skipper is 3-2 since replacing Deshaun Foster in September and is still an option for the full-time position, though he'd have to shake off last weekend's 50-point loss to Indiana and win at least two games this month to remain a serious contender.
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One outside name to watch is San Diego State coach Sean Lewis, who had two seven-win seasons at Kent State — then, as now, an incredible achievement — and is 7-1 in his second year with the Aztecs. Lewis played at Wisconsin, giving him some familiarity with the Big Ten. And speaking of Big Ten experience, the Bruins could do worse than former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald.
A former UCLA linebacker who was Nebraska's defensive coordinator before being hired to the same position last December at Florida State, White was one of the top contenders to replace Chip Kelly before embattled athletics director Martin Jarmond opted to stay in-house with Foster. Almost two years later, the timing is right to bring White back to Westwood.
Virginia Tech: James Franklin
The athletics budget at Virginia Tech is set to increase by about $229 million over the next four years, the school announced in late September. That leap in spending will attract a deeper pool of candidates than the Hokies evaluated when hiring Brent Pry, who was then the defensive coordinator under Franklin at Penn State.
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Four seasons later, Franklin is by leaps and bounds the most impressive candidate in Virginia Tech's orbit; if the two sides can come to an agreement, he's the type of coach who can reverse the program's decade-plus malaise and quickly bring the Hokies into ACC contention.
That he might come at a relative discount after receiving a mammoth buyout from the Nittany Lions would be a bonus. From Franklin's perspective, the Hokies' appeal stems from the easier path to the playoff compared to the Big Ten and — even if he would never say this publicly — the chance to do damage to Penn State's chances by tapping into the same recruiting backdrop that helped feed the Nittany Lions' roster during his tenure.
If Franklin goes to Auburn or opts to sit out next season, the Hokies would shift to Chesney or South Florida's Alex Golesh.
Oklahoma State: Alex Golesh, South Florida
Golesh is a second-level candidate for the SEC openings and could end up a bigger factor in those searches if he leads South Florida to an American championship and playoff berth. Waiting until later into December to make a hire wouldn't be an issue for Oklahoma State.
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Golesh was a graduate assistant with the Cowboys early in his career before following former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Tim Beckman to Toledo and then Illinois. His fast-paced offense would play very well in Stillwater and in the Big 12, giving the Cowboys a bit of a schematic advantage to paper over what is currently one of the weakest rosters in the Power Four.
Stanford: Tavita Pritchard, Washington Commanders
Pritchard was the backup quarterback to current Stanford general manager Andrew Luck and then spent 13 seasons as an assistant under former coach David Shaw before being hired as the quarterbacks coach for the Washington Commanders. Hiring Pritchard would be a simple and understandable way to bring some stability to a program currently led by interim coach Frank Reich.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football coaching hire predictions for each Power Four job
