The use of analytics in the NBA has drawn criticism from the game's purists. For example, teams shooting tons of three-pointers in today's era is a product of analytics. Many say that the approach has led to a boring game and has resulted in poor TV ratings for the league.
On Monday night, veteran sports writer Chris Mannix criticized analytics, tweeting that they cost the Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 of their best-of-seven second-round playoff series against the Denver Nuggets .
"Saw the downside of an analytics ending. OKC played the numbers, and didn't give Denver a shot at a game-tying three. But it also kept the Nuggets in it. Chet misses both, scramble ensues, Russ makes a great pass, Gordon makes a monster shot, and another home team goes down in Game 1," wrote Mannix on social media.
The Thunder looked like they were going to survive the stubborn Nuggets in Game 1 after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander canned two free throws with 13.9 seconds left in the fourth quarter to put his team ahead 117-114. But after Denver called a timeout, OKC opted to foul Nikola Jokic immediately after he caught the inbounds pass rather than allow a possible three-pointer. "The Joker" made both foul shots to cut the lead to a point.
On the ensuing play, SGA broke loose from the Nuggets' inbounds defense and scored on a quick layup to put the Thunder back up by three points at 119-116 with 11.1 seconds left in the game. Surprisingly, OKC gave up another immediate foul on Aaron Gordon , who was still in the backcourt, and with Denver no longer having any timeouts. AG made both free throws to slice the deficit to one, again.
After Mark Daigneault called his final timeout, the Nuggets responded by putting Chet Holmgren to the foul line. A career 78 percent free-throw shooter, Holmgren missed both free throws. Although Denver didn't have any timeouts left, the Thunder twice fouled up three without letting a few seconds run out. The clock left too much time for the "Mile High City" squad to set up a play, as they did not want to go to overtime.
After the game, Daigneault refused to blame the strategy for the defeat, saying they had been using it successfully all season long. But while you can't argue with a coach whose team finished with a regular season record of 68-14, the best in the league this year, perhaps Mark should have heeded the advice of University of Virginia alumnus and "The Athletic" senior NBA columnist John Hollinger, who is considered one of the originators of basketball analytics.
"I'm a big advocate of fouling when up by three in late-game situations, especially when the opponent is out of timeouts, but generally you need to be in single digits on the clock to make it worthwhile. Stan Van Gundy said his own rule of thumb was six seconds, while Jackson said his was five; regardless, it sure as heck isn't 11," said Hollinger.
The Thunder first fouled "The Joker" with 12.9 seconds left, when he wasn't even ready to shoot. The next time around, they put AG at the foul line while he was on the opposite court, with 10.7 seconds left. They paid the price.
Sure, the loss needed two conditions to happen: Chet missing two foul shots and the Nuggets hitting a three-pointer on the other end, and both don't happen every day. However, perhaps the Thunder should've waited a couple of seconds both times before fouling. Or maybe Daigneault should have trusted his team's defense, which ranked first in defensive rating during the regular season. Mark didn't, so OKC gave away the home court advantage in the series opener.
