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Stars’ X-factor in 2025-26, and it’s not Mikko Rantanen
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- Stars’ X-factor in 2025-26, and it’s not Mikko Rantanen
The post Stars' X-factor in 2025-26, and it's not Mikko Rantanen appeared first on ClutchPoints .
For a third time in three years, the Dallas Stars couldn't get past the Western Conference Finals. Mikko Rantanen was brought in during the season to help them get to the Stanley Cup Final. While Rantanen was expected to be the X-factor, the team fell to the Edmonton Oilers in five games. In order to get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2020, the Stars need a new X-factor to step up.
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The Stars' traded for Rantanen to be the missing piece for the Stars. In 20 regular-season games with the team, he scored five goals and added 13 assists. The Finn started the playoffs slowly against his former team, the Colorado Avalanche . Still, he would rebound late in the series, lighting the lamp five times and adding six helpers in the final three games of the series. His playoff struggles returned . In the final eight games in the playoffs, he was without a goal and had four assists.
While Rantenen did not deliver a series win in the Western Conference Finals, other issues beyond scoring were prevalent in the series. This year's X-factor is going to fix that.
Jake Oettinger needs help
Jake Oettinger took a lot of blame for the lack of success of the team. He was pulled in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final after two goals on the first two shots of the game. Overall, Oettinger was solid in 2024-25. He went 36-18-4, the fourth-best win total in the NHL.
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Furthermore, he was 12 in the league in both goals against average and save percentage with a 2.59 goals against average and a .909 save percentage. He was not as good in the playoffs, but he was not bad enough to fully shoulder the blame for the team.
In the playoffs, the netminder had a 2.82 goals against average and a .905 save percentage. Regardless, he did struggle more in the last three months of the regular season. In February, he had a 3.21 goals against average with just a .901 save percentage.
He rebounded slightly in March but still had three games giving up four or more goals. Then in April, as the team prepared for the playoffs, Oettinger was at his worst. The American had a 3.85 goals against average and a .890 save percentage. Something changed in the last three months of the year, and that was the loss of this year's X-factor.
Miro Heiskanen is the X-factor for this team
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Miro Heiskanen was the third overall pick of the 2017 NHL Draft by the Dallas Stars . He broke into the NHL in the 2018-19 season and started making a major impact. He put up 33 points that year, playing in all 82 games. Until this past season, he had registered at least 30 points and missed no more than 12 games in a season. Still, there was a slight decline in production on both ends of the ice from 2022-23 and 2023-24. Both his defensive numbers and points dropped that year.
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He was on the rebound in 2024-25, scoring 25 points in 50 games and seeing his defensive numbers rebound as well. At the end of January, the blue-liner collided with Mark Stone of the Vegas Golden Knights and damaged his knee. This required surgery, and Heiskanen would not return to the ice until Game 4 of the series with the Winnipeg Jets .
What is of the most importance is what he meant to Oettinger. The advanced statistics show the impact of Heiskanen on Oettinger. In the regular season, the netminder faced fewer high-danger scoring chances and fewer shots per 60 minutes with his best blue-liner on the ice than off.
Furthermore, Oettinger's goals against average with Heiskanen on the ice sat at 2.00. That grew to 2.74 without his top defender on the ice. That is nearly three goals every four games, added to Oettinger's total when he is without his top defender. With the blue-liner playing more than 25 minutes per game when he was healthy, it is clear he is a dramatic help to his goaltender and the defense as a whole.
The success shown in the regular season did not transfer over to the playoffs, though. He was still recovering from his knee injury and was not at full strength. He played fewer minutes, shorter shifts, and fewer overall shifts as he continued to recover from injury.
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The good news for fans of the Stars, Heiskanen has declared he is back to full strength after the offseason. This will improve a defense that struggled in the playoffs. Combined with a more potent scoring attack, if Heiskanen can stay healthy, the Stars may finally be able to break through and play for the Cup.
