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Updated CFP rankings prediction features a whole lot of SEC, potential chaos
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- Updated CFP rankings prediction features a whole lot of SEC, potential chaos
We're about to find out just how much the College Football Playoff selection committee values the SEC .
The best conference in college football, or a bunch of good teams beating up on each other while chasing the two best teams (Ohio State and Indiana )?
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Here's your indicators: Texas Tech and Oregon.
If Alabama and Oklahoma stay behind the Red Raiders and Ducks in Tuesday night's CFP poll based purely on wins and losses, it's a direct correlation to what the committee thinks of the SEC.
But if we suddenly have a top-heavy SEC bracket, there could be as many as five SEC teams in the field on the final poll of the season.
"Nobody really deserved to lose that game," Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said after the Sooners' 23-21 win over No. 4 Alabama . "It's a reflection of our league. We're playing really good teams."
There are seven SEC teams still in the CFP hunt — Texas A&M, Georgia , Ole Miss , Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas and Vanderbilt — and only one game between those seven (Texas A&M at Texas Nov. 28).
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Texas A&M is in the field, assuming it beats lowly FCS Samford on Saturday.
Georgia needs to be beat Charlotte Saturday, and the Dawgs are a lock.
If Alabama beats Eastern Illinois and Auburn, the Tide are in — especially with a win at Georgia. The best win of any team in the field.
And then it gets interesting.
Oklahoma is in if it beats Missouri and LSU at home. A loss in either game would eliminate the Sooners unless there are massive upsets throughout the field. Remember, the Sooners lost to Ole Miss at home, and to Texas.
This brings us to Ole Miss, which needs a win at Mississippi State to remove all doubt. Because if Ole Miss loses, and two-loss Michigan beats Ohio State, the Rebels leave their fate to be measured against Michigan, Notre Dame and Texas, among others.
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If Texas beats Arkansas and Texas A&M, the Longhorns would have two wins over two teams in the Top 10 (Texas A&M and Oklahoma), and would've played No. 1 Ohio State better than any other team in the regular season. Even with the three losses.
Vanderbilt, if it beats Kentucky and wins at Tennessee, needs help. More than likely losses by Texas, Oklahoma and Ole Miss, and others outside the SEC.
A look at the projected CFP field, and what the committee will likely do with its third poll of the season.
Projected CFP 12-team field
1. Ohio State: Buckeyes peaking at the right time, but You Know Who is still waiting on Nov. 29. Next: Rutgers.
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2. Indiana:Hoosiers are efficient, almost to a fault. Somehow, a 31-7 win over Wisconsin looked boring. Next: bye.
3. Georgia:This isn't Georgia championship teams of the past, but is there any doubt this is the best team in the SEC? Next: Charlotte.
4. Texas Tech:Don't be shocked when tough, talented Red Raiders win out and earn one of four first round byes.
5. Texas A&M:Near loss to South Carolina underscored Aggies fortunate SEC schedule: one team (Missouri) with a winning conference record. Next: Samford.
6. Ole Miss:Who cares about who's coaching Ole Miss? Celebrate a team one win from the CFP. Next: bye.
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7. Oklahoma:Best win under coach Brent Venables. OU has best defense in the SEC. Next: Missouri.
8. Alabama:A season of the inevitable suddenly got dicy for the Tide — especially with the Iron Bowl at Auburn looming. Next: Eastern Illinois.
9. Oregon:Still trying to figure out what the CFP committee sees in the Ducks, but they're persistent with it. Next USC.
10. Notre Dame:We're still banking on what we've seen against overmatched competition vs. what happened against the best of the schedule . Next: Syracuse.
11. BYU:A physical, statement win over underrated TCU. Arizona and Iowa State road wins are impressive, too. Next: at Cincinnati.
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12. Texas:The Oklahoma win: an important mark, or a win against a team with star quarterback still recovering from injury? The nuances will be critical. Next: Arkansas.
Five automatic qualifiers
Ohio State (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), Georgia Tech (ACC).
First round byes
Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech.
First round games
(12) Navy at (5) Texas A&M
(11) Georgia Tech at (6) Ole Miss
(10) Notre Dame at (7) Oklahoma
(9) Oregon at (8) Alabama
Quarterfinal games
Oregon-Alabama winner vs. Ohio State (1), Rose Bowl
Notre Dame-Oklahoma winner vs. Indiana (2), Cotton Bowl
Georgia Tech-Ole Miss winner vs. Georgia (3), Sugar Bowl
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Navy-Texas A&M winner vs. Texas Tech (4), Orange Bowl
How the CFP committee will vote
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. Texas Tech
6. Ole Miss
7. Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. BYU
12. Utah
When do CFP rankings come out?
The rankings are released on ESPN at 8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 18
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB .
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP rankings could have 5 SEC teams in Playoff bracket predictions
