Why Cal Raleigh will upset Aaron Judge for 2025 AL MVP

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Why Cal Raleigh will upset Aaron Judge for 2025 AL MVP

Zachary Howell, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Sep 26, 2025 ·

5 min read

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The post Why Cal Raleigh will upset Aaron Judge for 2025 AL MVP appeared first on ClutchPoints .

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh would be the clear front-runner for American League MVP in most seasons. Unfortunately for the slugger, he finds himself competing with New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge for the honor. The Yankees' captain is the players' choice to win the award , but Raleigh is not far behind. With a strong finish, he could pull off the upset.

Raleigh reached 60 home runs with two bombs on Wednesday night . His performance against the Colorado Rockies brings him even closer to Judge's historic mark from 2022. The catcher needs three home runs in four games to set a new single-season AL home run record. If he keeps up his current pace, he will get there before the Mariners' final regular season game on Sunday.

Judge and Raleigh's competition for the AL MVP has given experts a lot to think about. Regardless of how the season finishes, voters will have a hard time deciding between the two. Raleigh is the favorite as of now, but that could change nightly until the season finishes this weekend. Both players are deserving candidates, but one of the two will walk away disappointed this fall.

Comparing the stars to one another is an interesting thought exercise. On one hand, the dominance Raleigh has displayed as a power hitter should give him the edge. However, the numbers would suggest that Judge has had the better season by a long shot. Voters have to split hairs between the two, leading to what could be the closest voting results in years.

The fact that each of the All-Stars is playing at such a high level is good for Major League Baseball. However, Raleigh's supporters have a good argument to make that the catcher deserves his recognition. Here is why he will win.

Raleigh's regular season is too historic to ignore

Hitting 60 home runs in a single season is no small feat. Before Judge did so in 2022, it had not happened since the early 2000s. However, that mark is even more impressive when considering that Raleigh is a catcher. Seattle's star set new records for home runs by a catcher in the first half of the season , as well as home runs by a switch-hitter in a single campaign.

Judge's season has stood out from the crowd because of his overall greatness. The Yankees star is one of the most feared and respected batters in league history. He even set a new record for intentional walks during New York's series against the Chicago White Sox this week. Despite his excellent offensive season, Raleigh's efforts have more staying power in a historical context.

Raleigh won the Home Run Derby earlier this summer , dominating the national stage. That was just one step in what has been a season to remember for the catcher. Mariners fans everywhere are praying that he reaches Judge's record and surpasses it. At this point, that could be the moment that permanently tips the scales in his favor. Raleigh could easily win the AL MVP this weekend.

Raleigh's story is far more appealing that Judge's

While it is not his fault and he embodies the Yankees, Judge has had it easy in New York. The team is one of MLB's most popular franchises, enjoying attention from fans around the world. In addition to that, the team has enjoyed a wild amount of success in the modern era. The Yankees suffered an embarrassing loss in the 2024 World Series , but they routinely make deep playoff runs.

The Mariners, on the other hand, have not played a postseason game in more than 20 years. Seattle clinched its playoff berth earlier this week , triggering a celebration that resonated throughout the city. Even though they have a chance at the AL's top seed, the Mariners are still a long shot to make noise in the postseason. All of that works in Raleigh's favor in the MVP race.

Raleigh signed a contract extension before the season began . Less than a year later, it might be the best deal in the entire league. Nobody expected the veteran catcher to catch fire in his fifth MLB season. The fact that he came out of the blue makes his case even stronger. Sports fans love an underdog story, and Raleigh winning the MVP award over Judge would be a perfect ending.

Judge could suffer from voter fatigue

Judge won the AL MVP last season , his second in three seasons. Back-to-back MVPs are not uncommon in MLB, with Judge and Shohei Ohtani playing for a chance to do so this year. However, voter fatigue will set in, opening the door for other players to win the trophy. In the National League, Kyle Schwarber is the unspoken MVP candidate, while Raleigh fills that role in the AL.

If the MVP voting was conducted blind, Judge's overall numbers would carry him past Raleigh. The Mariners star has more home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases than the Yankees slugger. Other than that, Raleigh falls short. However, the voters' feelings will be tested when they decide who deserves to win. Will they vote for Judge and not reward Raleigh for making history as a catcher?

Regardless of how the race finishes, both players' seasons rank highly in the compared to anything that has happened since 2000. Judge has been the favorite for the majority of the year. However, Raleigh is ready to ride his momentum into the postseason . If he wins the AL MVP, Seattle is in a good position to prove a lot of doubters wrong and surprise fans everywhere this fall.

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