Story by
I was wrong about Detroit Tigers in 2025 season — but I was right, too. Let's revisit predictions
- Story by
- I was wrong about Detroit Tigers in 2025 season — but I was right, too. Let's revisit predictions
In early February, I made 10 predictions for the Detroit Tigers in 2025.
The Tigers finished with an 87-75 record and fumbled the American League Central title in the regular season, but they reached the postseason for a second consecutive year — only to be eliminated in Game 5 of the ALDS, just as they were in 2024.
Advertisement
As for my predictions, I posted a 4-6 record for a .400 winning percentage — in MLB terms, that's better than only the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox in 2025.
POINT THE FINGER: Tigers blame late-season collapse on bad offense, expect changes in offseason
Here are my 10 predictions as published Feb. 9 , with wins and losses to show if I was right or wrong:
Tarik Skubal repeats as AL Cy Young winner: WIN
This felt like the easiest prediction. Not only did Tarik Skubal maintain his ace status, but he is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner — becoming the first AL pitcher to accomplish that feat since Hall of Famer Pedro Martínez in 1999-2000. This time, the 28-year-old posted a 2.21 ERA with 33 walks and 241 strikeouts across 195⅓ innings in 31 starts. Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet is the favorite for second place in AL Cy Young voting, but Skubal will win the award. Record:1-0.
Advertisement
ROOKIE SHINES: Tigers outline plan for pitcher Troy Melton in 2026: 'He's a starter'
Riley Greene finishes top-5 in AL MVP voting: LOSS
Riley Greene was never going to win AL MVP, but through the first three months, he put himself in position to earn votes — each voter ranks their top 10 players on the ballot. Through June, the 25-year-old ranked sixth among AL players in OPS, at .887. From July 1 on, though, he ranked 45th in OPS, at .714 OPS. His offense collapsed, his defense regressed, and his speed declined. Even if his bat had stayed hot, those other shortcomings would've kept him out of the top five in MVP voting. Record:1-1.
Parker Meadows wins AL Gold Glove in center field: LOSS
The three AL finalists for the Gold Glove in center field: Kyle Isbel ( Kansas City Royals ), Ceddanne Rafaela ( Boston Red Sox ) and Julio Rodríguez ( Seattle Mariners ). The biggest surprise? Parker Meadows was worth minus-1 defensive runs saved across 468 innings in center field this season — after posting plus-5 DRS across 660 innings in 2024. Two injuries limited the 25-year-old to 58 games, including a rare nerve issue in his right arm that sidelined him for the first 60 games. Not only did Meadows slump on offense, but he also slumped on defense. Record:1-2.
Advertisement
ALL THREE: What position for Colt Keith in 2026? Here's why Tigers won't commit
Free Press Tigers beat writer Evan Petzold interviews Detroit Tigers infielder Colt Keith in the clubhouse after a 6-3 win over Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of AL wild-card series at Progressive Field in Cleveland on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025.
Celebrate 125 epic seasons of the Tigers with a new book!
Colt Keith hits 20 home runs: LOSS
The Tigers need Colt Keith to develop into a true power hitter. There were signs of progress this season, but the real breakout will have to wait another year. The positive: The 24-year-old raised his average exit velocity from 87.8 mph in 2024 to 90 mph in 2025 and boosted his home run rate from 2.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 — both signs that more power should be coming soon. The negative: He hit just 13 home runs in 2025, matching his 2024 total. Record:1-3.
Advertisement
Kerry Carpenter becomes everyday player: LOSS
Kerry Carpenter — a right-handed hitter who still doesn't face many left-handed pitchers — remains on the Joc Pederson trajectory, which won't benefit him when it's time to get paid in arbitration and free agency. The 28-year-old received more plate appearances against lefties this season, going from 32 in 2024 to 63 in 2025, but he couldn't establish himself as an everyday player. He hit just .217 with a .638 OPS against lefties (compared to hitting .257 with an .812 OPS against right-handed pitchers). Record:1-4.
Javier Báez performs better than Trey Sweeney : WIN
Javier Báez put together a comeback season to remember — and possibly saved his career in the process. The 32-year-old hit .256 with a .680 OPS over 126 games in the regular season before hitting .313 with an .802 OPS in eight games in the postseason. Meanwhile, Trey Sweeney became unplayable, hitting .196 with a .548 OPS and posting minus-5 defensive runs saved at shortstop. The Tigers once boasted about their return in the 2024 Jack Flaherty trade, but if Sweeney doesn't pan out, they'll need to hope catcher Thayron Liranzo develops into a starter in the big leagues. Here's the reason to worry: Liranzo hit .206 with a 31.7% strikeout rate and a .659 OPS over 88 games with Double-A Erie. Record:2-4.
Advertisement
Jack Flaherty makes fewer than 15 starts: LOSS
Alex Cobb — not Jack Flaherty — turned out to be the free-agent signing who made fewer than 15 starts. In fact, Cobb didn't pitch at all for the Tigers after signing a one-year, $15 million contract because of injuries to both hips. As for Flaherty, he took the mound for 31 starts — and when he made his 15th start, his 2026 player option doubled from $10 million to $20 million. One problem: The 30-year-old finished with a 4.64 ERA over 161 innings in those 31 starts. Is that kind of production really worth $20 million? Record:2-5.
Jackson Jobe posts ERA above 4.00: WIN
Better than Tarik Skubal but not as good as Justin Verlander ? Jackson Jobe lived up to that prediction, posting a 4.22 ERA in his rookie season — better than Skubal's 4.34 ERA in 2021 but worse than Verlander's 3.63 ERA in 2006 during their respective rookie campaigns. Along with the 4.22 ERA, Jobe logged 27 walks and 39 strikeouts across 49 innings in 10 starts after making the Opening Day roster. The 23-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in June, ending his 2025 season and potentially keeping him out for the entire 2026 season. He needs to generate more whiffs upon his return. Record:3-5.
Advertisement
Bullpen ERA ranks worse than 15th in MLB: WIN
The Tigers' bullpen ranked fifth in among the 30 MLB teams with a 3.55 ERA in 2024, but its production fell to 17th with a 4.05 ERA in 2025. The drop-off stemmed from a group of relievers that ranked 29th with a 20.1% strikeout rate — well below the 22.8% league average. Too few strikeouts meant too many balls in play, leading to an excess of hits and runs. By the end of the season, manager A.J. Hinch trusted only two relievers in high-leverage spots: Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest . In Hinch's five seasons, the Tigers' bullpen has finished in the top 15 just twice — 2022 and 2024. Record:4-5.
[ MUST LISTEN: Make "Days of Roar" your go-to Tigers podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts ( Apple , Spotify ) ]
Not more than 86 wins: LOSS
As president of baseball operations Scott Harris noted after the season, the Tigers won more games in 2025 than 2024 — by one, improving from 86 wins to 87. One problem: The Tigers nearly collapsed their way out of the postseason, losing 13 of their final 16 games and 22 of their final 31. The Tigers clinched a spot in the playoffs (and secured their 87th win) in Game 161 of 162. Getting to the postseason in back-to-back years is progress, but the Tigers still don't have anything to show for it. Record:4-6.
Advertisement
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .
Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple Podcasts , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers predictions revisited: Where I was right, wrong
