There are two questions about how we assess Justin Crawford's rookie season. How is he impacting a club that intended to contend for a World Series title in 2026? And does his rookie season, even if it wasn't perfect, show a player that can stick on the roster for 2027 and beyond?
Since the Phillies have not had many rookie position players to get significant playing time during this run, we have to go back to Bryson Stott's 2022 season for a second. It wasn't some great year. He had an 84 wRC+ for the season and looked ok at shortstop but not enough to stick there. But there were generally positive signs, he finished with 1.3 fWAR, and as the year went on he improved more and more with facing major league arms.
Justin Crawford's rookie season was… not like that.
2026 stats: 465 PAs, .264/.309/.353, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 17 SB, 5.8% BB%, 17.6% K%, 80 wRC+, 0.2 fWA R
What went right
In a Phillies outfield that faced significant questions as the season went on, Justin Crawford played against right-handed pitching. It never quite got to the point it with Andrew Painter where he needed a AAA stint despite no other alternatives. Whether it was Adolis Garcia's ineffectiveness at the plate, Brandon Marsh's second half, or trotting out players like Gabriel Rincones jr, Felix Reyes, and Otto Kemp, Crawford was never the biggest question mark they had. In the month of August, he was the best thing going for them in the outfield.
His raw athleticism stood out on a team without a lot of it. He stole 17 bases, showed off a couple of bunt hits as time went on, and he sometimes showed off plus range in center field. There will be questions asked later about how often this stuff actually needs to happen but there are a few moments where he looked the part.
What went wrong
This is where it gets tough to separate what the Phillies needed him to be in 2026 and how to project him moving forward.
Objectively speaking, the Phillies needed better play in center field. He had an 80 wRC+ with concerning trends. Crawford's swing and approach are polarizing but it just didn't translate to the big leagues. He had a 57.5% groundball rate and carried a .317 BABIP in spite of it. The put it on the ground and win with your legs approach only goes so far in an age where infield defense is more important to teams than ever.
He did not walk nearly enough to make the profile work. He also didn't hit for any power, which isn't surprising given how often he is smacking the ball into the ground but a .089 ISO is not good enough.
The overall offensive profile doesn't show enough proof of concept to expect much improvement over time without significant changes. He needs to hit more line drives and to walk more. Doing both of those things will better unlock his baserunning potential as well. No, I'm not asking Justin Crawford to try and hit 40 home runs but he does require significant changes. Changes the Phillies may not be willing to make.
Some of this would be a lot easier to justify if the defense was strong. Crawford graded out as one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball. He ranked 27th in Defensive Runs Saved among 29 outfielders with at least 500 innings in center field. He finished 25th in Outs Above Average in the same set.
He just did not get consistent jumps or good enough routes. He has great speed but so does nearly every center fielder in 2026 so the technical issues are harder to handle.
Just taking a look at one play, Crawford took a banana route on this line drive hit by Brett Baty. This is a play every center fielder has to make, probably without a slide at all. He has to trap it in his glove.
If you want to look at it metrically, it had a 95% catch probability according to BaseballSavant.
Given how bad the Phillies were defensively, it's not just Trea Turner who warrants a position change but if Justin Crawford is going to be on the Phillies in 2027, it should probably be in left field.
Final grade: C-?
I don't feel great about it but I will grade on a curve because he is a rookie and it is just hard.
To me, the concern is in the numbers from his 2026 season but just looking at the bigger picture, what ceiling here can Justin Crawford actually obtain? That question just seems hard to answer because he just didn't do enough well or put together enough underlying trends to feel good about.
Without significant changes that are different than anything he did in the minor leagues or in 2026 with the Phillies, this doesn't look like a player to keep around long-term. Or even in 2027.
