Last season, the Royals faced a crossroads with Seth Lugo. As they approached the trade deadline, there was healthy debate over whether the Royals should trade Lugo and try to acquire younger talent, or whether they should keep him to finish the year and bring him back for 2026. Just a few days before the trade deadline, the Royals and Lugo reached a deal on a two-year, $46 million extension with a vesting option for another year at $23 million per year. Lugo was going to remain a Royal.
Lugo's performance dipped significantly after he signed the extension, but he also pitched with a back injury for a while before being shut down by the team. The hope coming into the season was that he was healthy and would be able to help lead the Royals back to the playoffs on the strength and depth of their starting pitching. His 2024 season was spectacular, but it was unrealistic to assume he would get back there production-wise. Still, an ERA around four while picking up the ball every fifth day would provide the value the Royals paid for in his contract.
The veteran started the season hot. Through April, Lugo sported a 2.63 ERA with a nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio. It looked like the back issue might have been all that held him back, and that bringing him back was the right decision. For the rest of the year, however, Lugo alternated between being a back-end starter or 2005 José Lima. Here are his remaining ERAs by month:
May: 4.59
June: 6.52
July: 4.32
August: 8.31
September: 6.38
The right-hander did miss some time in June on the concussion –
IL after getting struck in the forehead by a Brandon Nimmo fastball. Given the bump that appeared on his head, it's a miracle that the injury wasn't worse than it was. Besides that, Lugo was quite healthy this year, tossing 172.1 innings. Unfortunately, he had a 5.17 ERA over those innings.
Lugo has been an "out-pitching-his-peripherals" guy in previous seasons, but this year he actually had a 4.38 FIP, which was better than his 2025 FIP of 5.09. In some ways, he had the inverse of his 2025 season: an okay ERA and bad FIP last year, but a bad ERA with okay FIP this season. I don't really know what to make of that, but I ask that we all be consistent in our arguments. If you are a "Lugo can out-pitch his peripherals consistently" kind of guy, please don't turn around and argue, "But his FIP was better this season!"
The veteran really struggled against lefties this season, surrendering an .874 OPS against opposite-handed batters. That OPS mark would have led all Royals batters this season. His curveball, four-seam fastball, and sweeper were all terrible against lefties this year, combining for -32 runs of value against southpaws alone. They also represented 46% of his usage against lefty batters. Compare that to two years ago, when Lugo's fastball held its own against left-handed hitters while his curveball was worth +8 runs, and it's clear that something has changed in his ability to fool hitters, particularly lefties, and keep them off balance. Whether Lugo can find that again or we are watching an aging player rage against the dying of the light remains to be seen.
It will be interesting to see how Lugo is deployed next season. If Lugo throws 162.2 innings next season, his 2028 option will vest at $20 million. If not, it becomes a $17 million club option. The Royals have a $3 million buyout if Lugo's option doesn't vest and they don't want to pick up the club option.
If Lugo pitches as he did in 2026 next year, the Royals may want 2027 to be his last season. Of course, if he throws as many innings as he did in 2026, his 2028 salary is guaranteed. Kansas City doesn't have a stable of starters lined up for 2027, so I expect Lugo will be one of the starting five and not shifted to the bullpen. There could be tension between the team and the player next year if it's August and Lugo has a 5-run ERA and is closing in on his innings limit. For now, this is just something to monitor, but I don't love seeing financial incentives that could put a team and a player at odds over his playing time.
As it stands right now, I think the Royals would have been better off trading Lugo last season versus bringing him back for this one, but I admittedly don't know what was on offer. What I do know is that Lugo was able to pick up the ball every fifth day, but he was also part of the Royals' pitching problems this year that led to the second-worst ERA in the American League. The starter comes across as a real craftsman, and I have no doubt that he will work on his issues against lefties in the offseason. I wonder if that will be enough, or if we all witnessed the beginning of the end of Lugo's career as an effective starter.
