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3 bold predictions for White Sox-Guardians ALDS clash
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The Chicago White Sox spent September losing their grip on the AL Central. They can spend October making the Cleveland Guardians regret catching them.
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One game separated these clubs. The Guardians finished 85-77 and earned a first-round bye, while the White Sox went 84-78 before sweeping the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series. The White Sox also won seven of the rivals' 13 regular-season meetings.
That creates a compelling division series without an obvious heavyweight. The Guardians bring a rested rotation and a September surge. The White Sox bring an offense that scored 13 runs in Houston and a chance to extend baseball's most improbable turnaround.
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The Guardians deserve respect for taking the division . They should not expect that accomplishment to settle what happens next.
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Here are three bold predictions for the ALDS, which opens Saturday at Progressive Field.
3. Parker Messick strikes out 10 in a Game 1 victory
The White Sox lineup will encounter a different opening test against Parker Messick.
The rookie southpaw posted a 2.81 ERA with 29 strikeouts and five walks across 25 2/3 innings against the White Sox this season. Those four starts give this prediction a foundation beyond the assumption that rested pitching beats an offense carrying momentum.
Messick has demonstrated that he can challenge these hitters without giving away many baserunners. The prediction is that he turns that familiarity into 10 strikeouts and a Guardians victory in his postseason debut.
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The White Sox must resist helping him with impatient swings. An early deficit could tempt hitters to chase the home run that changes the game, allowing Messick to dictate at-bats.
There is a limit to what those regular-season results prove. Messick is 2-1 in those four starts and has won the last two. Strong pitching did not guarantee team success.
Messick wins the opener here, but that performance will become the Guardians' high point rather than the beginning of a comfortable series.
2. Colson Montgomery hits two home runs
Colson Montgomery represents both the danger in Chicago's lineup and the reason Cleveland cannot assume that strikeouts will eliminate it.
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He finished the regular season with 31 home runs and 227 strikeouts. That combination makes him a risky choice for sustained offensive production, but an appealing choice to change two games with swings.
The White Sox shortstop entered the postseason hitting only .065 over his final 19 regular-season games. Then Montgomery homered in his postseason debut vs. the Astros, providing an immediate reminder that a prolonged slump does not erase his power.
One swing does not establish that every problem has disappeared. Predicting a barrage of singles would require more optimism than the evidence supports.
Two ALDS home runs offer a credible bold call. Montgomery can struggle against Messick, produce empty at-bats elsewhere, and still punish enough mistakes to shape the series.
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The White Sox do not need him to become a different hitter. They need his best skill to surface when the Guardians leave something hittable over the plate.
Expect two homers, with at least one coming during the White Sox home portion of the series.
1. The White Sox win three straight after losing the opener
The aggressive prediction is also the one that gives the other two their significance.
The White Sox lose Game 1, answer against Gavin Williams in Game 2, and finish the series with victories at Rate Field.
The venue matters. The White Sox went 48-33 at home, compared with 36-45 on the road. Splitting the first two games would give them an opportunity to finish the job where they played their best baseball.
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Cleveland's 44-37 road record prevents that argument from becoming automatic. The Guardians can win away from Progressive Field, and their late surge demonstrated the resilience required to answer adversity.
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Still, the White Sox do not need to prove that their sweep of an 81-win Houston club makes them unbeatable. They need to carry forward the ability to build leads and make opponents respond.
The White Sox never trailed against the Astros. The Guardians will interrupt that pattern, but Chicago has enough power and home success to recover.
A division title rewarded the Guardians for finishing stronger. This prediction rewards the White Sox for delivering the next decisive response.
Chicago advances to the ALCS in four games.
Related: Surprising Guardians-White Sox postseason fact surfaces before ALDS clash
Related: What Phillies, Astros, Red Sox, Cubs must do to save season in Wild Card Series Game 2
