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3 reasons Phillies can still win NL East despite Braves’ early-season dominance
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- 3 reasons Phillies can still win NL East despite Braves’ early-season dominance
3 reasons Phillies can still win NL East despite Braves' early-season dominance appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .
The Atlanta Braves have been the story of the 2026 National League East. At 32-15 with baseball's best run differential, they own an 8-game lead over Philadelphia and look every bit like a team that has found its identity. The Phillies , sitting at a pedestrian 24-23, have every reason to look up at the standings with concern. But written off? Not so fast. The NL East race is far from over, and here are three reasons the Phillies still have a legitimate shot at claiming the division crown.
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Zack Wheeler 's Return Is Everything
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
The biggest story in Philadelphia's 2026 season doesn't involve a trade-deadline acquisition or a roster shakeup. It's the return of their ace. Zack Wheeler , who missed the early portion of the season recovering from thoracic outlet decompression surgery to address a blood clot near his right shoulder, has already made his 2026 debut. In his return, he's posted a 1.99 ERA with a razor-thin 0.88 WHIP over five starts, striking out 30 batters in just 31.2 innings.
When Wheeler is healthy and locked in, he's one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League. His return anchors a rotation that desperately needed stabilization, and it couldn't come at a better time as Philadelphia enters the heart of its schedule. If Wheeler continues on his current trajectory, the Phillies' rotation, led by Cristopher Sanchez (1.82 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 10 starts) at the top, becomes one of the most formidable in the NL. The Braves' early lead was built in large part during Wheeler's absence. The Phillies have legitimate reason to believe the pitching gap between the two clubs will shrink dramatically as the season progresses.
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A Managerial Spark Has Ignited the Offense
The Phillies fired Rob Thomson in late April after a brutal start to the season, and the move paid immediate dividends. Under interim manager Don Mattingly, Philadelphia went on an 8-1 surge that completely reshaped the narrative around this roster. The club swept four consecutive series, with the bats finally clicking in a lineup full of premium talent.
Leading the offensive charge is Kyle Schwarber , who tied a franchise record by homering in five straight games, a streak that put him in company with legends like Mike Schmidt and Chase Utley . Meanwhile, Bryce Harper has been quietly putting together a strong season, slashing .282/.376/.559 with 12 home runs and an OPS of .935. Add in a Trea Turner who is capable of exploding at any moment, and the firepower in Philadelphia's lineup is every bit the equal of Atlanta's. The Phillies currently own a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, which proves this team has the ability to play at an elite level when everything clicks together.
The Schedule and Sample Size Still Favor a Comeback
Eight games is a significant deficit in May, but context matters. The Braves were 76-86 just a season ago in 2025, and their 2026 surge has surprised nearly every analyst and projection system in baseball. That kind of historically dominant start from a roster expected to be in transition carries real regression risk. FanGraphs noted as early as May 4 that the NL East race may feel over, but emphasized that with more than 110 games remaining, there is plenty of time on the clock.
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The Phillies also hold a favorable upcoming schedule against non-contenders, and their 7-3 mark over the last 10 games demonstrates the team is trending upward while Philly's rivals, the Mets and Nationals, are not pulling away in the standings. In baseball, an 8-game lead in mid-May has evaporated before, and often. Philadelphia just needs consistent execution from their rotation, continued production from Harper and Schwarber, and a few stumbles from a Braves team that may have been playing above its long-term ceiling. The 2025 NL East had multiple lead changes before October, there's no reason 2026 can't follow a similar script.
The Phillies are far from dead in this race. With Wheeler back on the mound, Don Mattingly's squad playing inspired baseball, and over 110 games remaining, Philadelphia has all the tools needed to make a legitimate run at Atlanta. The Braves' lead is real, but so is the Phillies' ceiling.
Related: Phillies send down 25-year-old infielder with .421 OPS
Related: Phillies prove firing Rob Thomson was right call as record gets back over .500
