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5 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 1 Thursday: Big Night for the Big Ten?
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- 5 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 1 Thursday: Big Night for the Big Ten?
Here I was, feeling all puffy-chested after nailing the North Carolina pick over TCU dead cold last week, and three-run jacking the North Dakota State call over Jacksonville State about 500 feet when that
happened.
Yeah, I missed my No. 1 pick – seriously, Florida State? – but if you've been with me over the years, you know I overthink that. Not getting USC over San Jose State was pure Week 0 – right call, coaching staff played the twos and threes late.
I also gave you Hawaii -4 over Stanford. If you know, you know.
All good, these things happen, but you owe me, college football prediction gods, and it starts with a group of Thursday night games that should feature two tons of blowouts.
Last Week's Results:2-3
– All the Week 1 Picks
– Week 1 Expert Picks
5. Idaho at Utah
Line:Utah -34.5
ATS Pick: Utah
There's a deeper dive analysis of this in the game preview
, so let's not waste each other's time here.
Idaho isn't bad – it lost in brutal, heartbreaking fashion to Cal Poly to open the season – but Utah absolutely doornailed everyone on its schedule last season that wasn't BYU or Texas Tech – okay, so it only beat Kansas by ten.
New Ute head coach Morgan Scalley will want to set a tone right away. He'll turn his offense loose, focus on the defense cranking it up against the run from the start, and … Utah beat Cal Poly 63-9 last season.
– Idaho at Utah Game Preview
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4. Eastern Illinois at Minnesota
Point Total:51.5
ATS Pick: Over
For the first time this year, here we go (say it with me) … when one side has a reasonable shot of hitting the over by itself (go on, you know this), then take the reasonable chance. Yessss, lovely, you all sounded in midseason form.
Eastern Illinois can score a little bit, which is obviously a positive when going for the over, but there is a catch here, so be careful. Minnesota is notoriously logey in season openers. (Last year's 23-10 win over Buffalo still burns.)
But what happened after that game against the Bulls? 66-0 over Northwestern State. Minnesota put up 48 on Rhode Island the year before, and under PJ Fleck, won 62-10 over Western Illinois in 2022 – the Gophers rip up FCS teams.
– Eastern Illinois at Minnesota Game Preview
The bit so nice we're doing it twice …
3. Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri
Point Total:54.5
ATS Pick: Over
I'm not going to make you sing the song again, so let's just get there faster … Missouri beat Central Arkansas 61-6 to start last year. It beat Murray State 51-0 in 2024, but to be real, if I tell you Mizzou will score 51 and the total is 54.5, yeah, you'd take that deal.
The Tigers are starting over with several new parts, and it might not always be crisp, but when in doubt, they'll keep pounding on what should be another leaky UAPB run D – the Golden Lions were 114th in the FCS against the run last year.
– Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri Game Preview
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2. UAB at Illinois
Line:Illinois -27.5
ATS Pick: Illinois
Remember when I said Minnesota tends to have problems getting everything going in season openers – good times – yeah, well, that's not Illinois.
It hammered Western Illinois 52-3 to start last year, Eastern Illinois 45-0 to start 2024, Wyoming 38-6 back in 2022, Akron 42-3 in 2019, and on and on.
UAB is still rebuilding under Alex Mortensen, and it starts with a defense that allowed 42 points or more five times last year, including 56 in a 32-point loss at Tennessee.
And because I have to …
1. UMass at Rutgers
Line:Rutgers -28.5
ATS Pick: Rutgers
Again, if you're new to the program when it comes to my No. 1 picks, feel free to fade because we're dealing with something mystical here.
You name the way a team can lose – late scoop and score, two-point conversion going the wrong way, a parachute not opening, someone didn't check the expiration date on the salmon – this pick has experienced everything.
This should be a better UMass team than last year, and 2024, and 2023, and since the program moved up to FBS. However, it closed last year with a 31-point loss to an awful Bowling Green team, and that came after a 28-point loss to Ohio, a 42-point loss to an awful
Northern Illinois, and a 34-point loss to a not-that-awful Akron.
Iowa – mother- freaking
-Iowa beat UMass by 40 last season. Rutgers should be good for at least 40.
– UMass at Rutgers Game Preview
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Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
