To turn the page from Week 8 to Week 9, I spent some time early this week watching the Miami Dolphins' most recent game to see what's in store for the Detroit Lions.
Here are my five Lions vs. Dolphins thoughts after watching Miami's 24-19 loss to the New England Patriots.
Note: It's worth mentioning that it was a very rainy day in Miami, particularly at the start and end of the game.
There could be a lot of reasons for it, but Willis holds onto the ball way too long in the pocket. Per NFL Pro, Willis' 3.05 average seconds to throw is third-longest in the league. Is it taking Willis too long to go through his progressions, is he too hesitant to trust his eyes, or is his young receiving corps just not getting open? It's hard to say from my vantage point, but it certainly is an opportunity for the Lions to get home against Willis.
Thus far, Willis has taken 21 sacks—the seventh most in the NFL—and the Dolphins have the second-highest sack rate in the NFL (10.3%).
The Patriots got to Willis five times in the first half, before backing down a little in the second.
Miami had an extremely hard time stopping Patriots nose tackle Cory Durden in this game. He set career highs in pressure (three), quarterback hits (three), and sacks (1.5). Prior to this game, Durden had never recorded a sack and only had two quarterback hits since starting his NFL career, coincidentally in Detroit, in 2023.
Miami is particularly vulnerable on the right side of the line, where second-year right guard Jonah Savaiinaea is the 66th (out of 75) PFF-graded guard (47.9), and right tackle Austin Jackson is the lowest-graded tackle in football (44.6).
Williams is having a strong start to his second season, remaining a force in the run game (Dolphins rank 21st in EPA/rush, 24th in success rate) while growing as a pass rusher. Obviously, look out for Alim McNeill, too, who is currently only behind Broncos defensive tackle Zach Allen in PFF pressures from interior defenders (31).
Last week, the Lions found success pounding the rock right up the middle of the Vikings' defense. That should be the game plan once again against the Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson toughed out 82 yards on 19 carries (4.3 YPC), as the Patriots produced a 45.2% success rate on the ground—ninth-highest of all Week 8 performances.
For the year, Miami ranks 21st in EPA/rush allowed and 30th in success rate (43.9%).
So they aren't giving up a ton of explosive plays on the ground, but you can certainly grind them down. I would not be surprised to see another solid workload from Sione Vaki.
Miami's defense as a whole won't likely be up for the task against the Lions' high-flying offense. The Dolphins rank 24th in points per game allowed (25.9) and 25th in yards per play allowed.
However, there are a couple of players who are playing well and capable of game-changing plays. The first is edge rusher Josh Uche. While Uche only has two sacks this year (one against the Patriots), he's produced PFF's ninth-highest run defense grade among edge defenders (76.0).
On the next level, rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez flashed against the Patriots. He had a teach-tape punchout and was second on the team with eight tackles. His rookie season has seen some ups and downs, but don't be surprised if he makes a big play or two against the Lions.
While the Dolphins only lost by five and they held a 10-point lead at halftime, this game did not feel like it was truly competitive between the teams.
For one, the Patriots made a ton of mistakes in the first half. They fumbled inside their own red zone, missed a 40-yard field goal, and had a ton of untimely penalties (seven in total). In the second half, the Patriots dropped an easy interception, and they had a game-clinching pick erased by an away-from-the-play offsides penalty.
And the Dolphins only made it close thanks to a prevent-defense touchdown with just over two minutes, because a Patriots defender fell down for an easy 35-yard touchdown.
On a per play basis, the Patriots produced more yards per play (5.3 vs. 4.5), and had a much higher success rate (49.1% vs. 43.8%). If you take away garbage-time stats, the difference is even bigger in success rate (52.9% vs. 39.3%).
If the Lions can avoid making self-inflicted mistakes, they should be able to win comfortably, despite the fact that Miami has kept each of their last four games within a touchdown.
