Story by
6 Make-or-Break Players Who Will Settle Whether the Jaguars Reach 5-2 Against the Colts
- Story by
- 6 Make-or-Break Players Who Will Settle Whether the Jaguars Reach 5-2 Against the Colts
Jacksonville's two weeks of rest end Sunday, and the Jaguars return to EverBank Stadium with the AFC South lead and an Indianapolis Colts team that just traded away DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson. A win puts Jacksonville at 5-2 heading into a Thursday night trip to Baltimore.
Six players figure to decide it. Three are Jaguars who give Jacksonville its best path, and three are Colts who can make the afternoon miserable if they aren't contained.
Advertisement
Jaguars who can make Sunday easy
Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Ventrell Miller (51) reacts to his forced fumble during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Browns 34-10. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Trevor Lawrence has to keep the ball out of harm's way
Lawrence has completed 120 of 184 passes for 1,480 yards with 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions, and NFL Media's Bucky Brooks said he is playing at an MVP level . Jacksonville ranks fourth in EPA per dropback through Week 7, via rbsdm.com.
There's one number underneath that line worth watching. PFF charges Lawrence with 12 turnover-worthy plays , which ranks 29th of 35 quarterbacks, even with a 73.7 passing grade that ranks 12th. Liam Coen had his team practicing with wet balls all week and isn't worried about his quarterback : "He never has really worried about it. He's a guy that does have big hands, and so I think that helps."
Advertisement
Parker Washington against a reshuffled Colts secondary
Washington leads the Jaguars with 26 catches for 416 yards and four touchdowns, a 16.0-yard average. His 81.6 overall grade ranks 13th among 76 receivers , according to PFF, and he has become the No. 1 receiver while Brian Thomas Jr. has nine catches.
Indianapolis placed Cam Taylor-Britt on injured reserve this week, and Charvarius Ward allowed four catches for 44 yards on six targets against Minnesota with a 39.9 coverage grade, according to PFF. Sauce Gardner returned to full practice Thursday, so Washington's work from the slot and on crossers matters more than winning outside.
Advertisement
Ventrell Miller is the best linebacker in football by PFF's grades
Miller's 92.5 overall grade ranks first among 75 linebackers , with a 91.0 run-defense grade and an 89.1 coverage grade. He has 39 tackles and has missed two all season, according to PFF.
Through five games, opponents averaged 2.59 yards per carry with Miller on the field and 4.00 without him, according to Action News Jax . He's playing on a rookie contract worth about $1.3 million against the cap this season, and Sunday he gets a rookie left guard, Jalen Farmer, making his first start in front of him.
Advertisement
Colts who can break it
Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Adetomiwa Adebawore (95) sacks Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Jonathan Taylor is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns
Taylor has 587 yards and eight touchdowns on 140 carries, and the Colts rank fourth in rush EPA. PFF credits him with 17 runs of 10 or more yards, fourth among 44 running backs , even with a modest 68.5 rushing grade.
His name is all over the trade deadline chatter , and he pushed back Wednesday. "Do you think we're rebuilding?" Taylor told reporters in Indianapolis . "We're going out there trying to win." Jacksonville ranks fourth in rush EPA allowed, so this is strength against strength.
Advertisement
Adetomiwa Adebawore inherits Buckner's snaps
Indianapolis sent Buckner to San Francisco , and Adebawore is the reason the drop-off might be small. His 81.8 overall grade ranks fourth among 126 interior defenders and his 86.3 pass-rush grade ranks third , according to PFF, which credits him with five sacks and 15 pressures. He had two sacks at Minnesota.
Colts defensive line coach Marion Hobby summed up his motor : "If you had to talk about motor, he's got a V8. He's not a V6." Center Robert Hainsey graded 50.9 in pass protection against Houston, and left guard Emmanuel Pregnon graded 46.7 overall, according to PFF, so Adebawore's best path runs straight up the middle.
Advertisement
Josh Downs could be playing for his next team
Downs reportedly requested a trade this week, and we've ranked his likeliest landing spots . He still leads Indianapolis with 307 receiving yards on 26 catches and graded 66.6 on 52 snaps against Minnesota, according to PFF.
He'll work the slot against Jourdan Lewis, who allowed four catches on four targets against Houston with a 44.1 coverage grade, according to PFF. Jacksonville has given up 320 yards a game through the air over its last three games, and safety Antonio Johnson is out with an ankle injury.
Advertisement
Jacksonville is better at more spots, and the analytics agree . If Miller wins his matchup with Taylor and Lawrence avoids the risky throw, the Jaguars should be 5-2 by Sunday night.
More on the Jacksonville Jaguars
This story was originally published by Athlon on Oct 31, 2026, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add Athlon as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
