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Aaron Jones Sr. Fantasy Prediction 2026: Worth a 12th-Round Pick as RB Depth
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- Aaron Jones Sr. Fantasy Prediction 2026: Worth a 12th-Round Pick as RB Depth
Aaron Jones Sr. Fantasy Prediction 2026:
In his age-31 season, the miles are heavily piling up for Aaron Jones. The veteran has well over 1,500 career carries, and he has not recorded a single rush gaining more than 41 yards since 2021. Beyond his declining breakaway speed, durability remains a massive red flag; he missed 5 games in 2025 and 6 games in 2024 during his final year with the Packers.
While his name recognition still holds weight for managers hoping for a vintage season (or even a serviceable one in which he is the head of a committee), the structural reality of the Minnesota Vikings backfield points in a different direction.
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Should You Draft Aaron Jones Sr. in Fantasy Football?
Jones is going off the board in PFN's Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator with an ADP of 113.6, so that's about a 12th-round pick. The PFN fantasy analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz are not quite as high on him. They have him as their 132nd-ranked player in their fantasy football rankings this year. That comes out to their RB42 overall, with a projected 8.71 points per game in a PPR league.
Jones is an interesting case because he's coming off a year in which he missed 5 games. He's 31, and he's going to be 32 this December, so he's definitely older for a running back. He's got more football behind him than ahead of him, but he's still shown he can produce at a decent level. He ran for 45.7 rushing yards per game last year when he was healthy, and he was targeted a decent amount as a receiving back. In 12 games, he caught 28 passes for 199 receiving yards, so you can get some form of PPR value out of him.
At this stage of his career, Jones doesn't have that elite fantasy ceiling. But it's worth noting that in 2024, when he was able to stay healthy over a full year, he surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. He also caught 51 passes for 408 yards that year.
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Yes, I know the age plays against him, and there's Jordan Mason in the mix and Dean Clayborn, who they drafted in the sixth round too. But I don't think things are going to be all that different in the Vikings offense. Kyler Murray's going to be starting at quarterback. I still anticipate there's going to be a decent amount of checkdowns. They bring Clayborn into the mix, and I think he's going to slide into a Ty Chandler role. I like Clayborn a lot as a deep handcuff option, but realistically it's going to be Jones and Mason.
Jones having produced as well as he did just two years ago makes me a little intrigued by him as an RB4, borderline RB5 even, that you'd be taking as an RB42. I like Jones around that value. Don't get your hopes up that he's going to be a week-after-week starter for you, but he can be solid running back depth. Maybe he eventually becomes a good play, or a good trade piece for a different position if there's a team out there that really needs a running back in your league.
I am saying yes to Jones at an ADP of 113.6. Even if the ceiling isn't incredibly high, I still feel like he's the RB1A to Jordan Mason's RB1B. I have confidence that even if he doesn't bounce back to his 1,100-yard rushing production, he's going to be productive in some capacity in 2025. I'm definitely taking a shot on him in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts this year.
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FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN's FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN's FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
Aaron Jones Sr.'s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe .
Here are the fantasy points per carry for Jones over the years:
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2018: 0.90
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2019: 0.86
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2020: 0.82
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2021: 0.60
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2022: 0.57
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2023: 0.54
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2024: 0.55
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2025: 0.50
A tiny upswing in his first year with the Vikes, but the downward trajectory resumed last season. I have a hard time seeing him earn nearly enough volume to offset the efficiency concerns, and that makes Jones nothing more than a bench stash for me right now.
He should be viewed as the primary pass catcher in this backfield, and that's not nothing, but in an offense that has an elite WR1 and a QB working into a new system, I'm not getting ahead of a vintage Jones season. If we see him earning 4 to 6 targets from Kyler Murray weekly AND handling 8 to 12 carries, we can open up a discussion: I find it highly unlikely in his age-31 season and with over 2,000 touches on his NFL resume.
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START PREPARING: PFN's FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
START PREPARING: PFN's FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Where Jones Ranks Among 2026 Running Backs
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Kyle Monangai | CHI
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Rachaad White | WAS
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J.K. Dobbins | DEN
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RJ Harvey | DEN
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Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX
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Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
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Zach Charbonnet | SEA
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Woody Marks | HOU
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Tyler Allgeier | ARI
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Keaton Mitchell | LAC
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Mike Washington Jr. | LV
Check the full position group on PFN's 2026 PPR Running Back Board .
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
