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How Adam Engstrom Fits into Canadiens' Defensive Lineup
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- How Adam Engstrom Fits into Canadiens' Defensive Lineup
David Kirouac-Imagn Images
Now that the Montreal Canadiens have recalled defenceman Adam Engstrom, it's the perfect time to evaluate the current pairings, in a bid to find the ideal role for the newest member of the team.
Engstrom's promotion is particularly interesting, because unlike Marc Del Gaizo , he's unlikely to serve as a contingency plan. He's in the midst of his best stretch of hockey since arriving to Canada, as evidenced by the fact that he was named the Player Of The Week in the AHL shortly after he received the call from the Habs.
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Promoting him simply to make him watch games as a healthy scratch would fly in the face of proper development.
What To Expect From Engstrom
The 22-year-old possesses excellent skating, which he uses to drive down low whenever the opportunity arises. And when I say excellent, I really mean it. It almost always seems like he's skating on velvet-filled clouds that are covered suede and packaged in silk.
With five goals and nine assists in 18 games, Engstrom was ranked second in AHL defenceman scoring prior to the call-up, including a five-point game versus the Belleville Senators on Saturday. In other words, not only did Engstrom deserve the promotion, he has the skill set necessary to move the needle for the Canadiens.
His defensive play is not elite, but he's taken great strides in improving his positioning and gap control, which should serve him well once he's ready to make his NHL debut. He was Pascal Vincent's most trusted defenceman in the AHL for a good reason, and that includes his much-improved defensive prowess.
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Montreal Canadiens Defensive Pairings
With over 20 games in the books, we now have a pretty good idea of how the defensive pairings have performed thanks to a relatively decent sample size.
We'll take a look at four different metrics to evaluate the pairings. CF% represents shot share, HDCF% is high-danger shot share, xGF% is expected goals, and GF% is actual goals.
As you can see in the chart below, every pairing falls on the wrong side of 50% in shot control, however, that's perfectly normal when you consider the team itself is ranked 20th among all NHL teams in that category.
Once we dig a little deeper, it becomes clear that Lane Hutson and Jayden Struble form the only pairing that has been able to control more than 50% of the high-danger chances. In that vein, they're the only pairing that manages to tread water in the expected goals category.
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And yet, they've actually managed to control the fewest goals, sitting at a very underwhelming 30.7%.
In other words, the process has been solid, but the results have not yet caught up.
The opposite scenario is taking place with the first pairing. With Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson on the ice, the Canadiens have scored 18 goals, while allowing just 12, but they've had a very hard time controlling the high-quality chances, and their share of the shot control has diminished significantly in November.
The numbers tell us that they're probably not going to keep controlling 60% of the goals.
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As for the third pairing, they've actually controlled the highest percentage of shots on the team, though it must be noted that they tend to face a lower quality of competition than the others. This is balanced, to a certain extent, by their quality of teammates, which tends to be lower as well.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
From a purely statistical standpoint, you could argue that the Matheson/Dobson pairing, which started the season with some of the best underlying numbers in the league, may need to be modified before things get worse.
And though the third pairing of Xhekaj/Carrier has only controlled 40% of the goals while they're on the ice, the stats tell us that number should increase as the season unfolds. Idem for the second pairing of Hutson/Struble.
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Given that Engstrom is not well suited for a third-pairing assignment, it stands to reason he should be used in the top four, the only situation that is conducive to producing as a puck-moving defenceman. Engstrom is also adept at playing on both sides of the ice, giving us a little more versatility to work with, while remembering it's always more difficult to quickly corral pucks when you're playing on your offside.
The simplest answer would be to replace Struble on the second pairing, which may seem counterintuitive when we remember it's the only duo that has controlled more than 50% of the expected goals, but it's important to note that Hutson tends to produce excellent numbers alongside most defensive partners.
Adding a player with Engstrom's dynamic skill set could complement Hutson's aggressive style of play, though there is a risk that it may backfire spectacularly if the defensive coverage goes awry.
Option No.1
Mike Matheson – Noah Dobson
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Adam Engstrom – Lane Hutson
Arber Xhekaj – Alexandre Carrier
Healthy Scratch: Jayden Struble.
Option No.2
The more complicated scenario involves promoting Hutson to the top pairing, alongside Dobson, which would shift Mike Matheson to the second pairing, alongside Engstrom, and leave either Xhekaj or Struble to play with Carrier on the third pairing.
Lane Hutson – Noah Dobson
Mike Matheson – Adam Engstrom
Arber Xhekaj/Jayden Struble – Alex Carrier
It would be quite interesting to see what Hutson can do alongside Dobson, but this would entail breaking apart the established pairings, and I strongly suspect head coach Martin St-Louis is not interested in running brand-new pairings at this point of the season.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick .
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