AFC Championship: 5 undeniable reasons why Broncos will beat Patriots

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AFC Championship: 5 undeniable reasons why Broncos will beat Patriots

Kendall Capps, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Jan 23, 2026 ·

6 min read

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Championship Sunday is nearly upon us. It is one of the biggest days of the year for football fans, as the country will find out who will play in Super Bowl 60. Both title games are sure to provide tons of excitement, with the NFC featuring a divisional clash. While in the AFC, the Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots in the conference championship.

Denver, in all likelihood, would have been the favorite to win this game had their quarterback, Bo Nix, not suffered a season-ending ankle injury . The injury occurred late in last week's Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills .

The injury has forced the Broncos to start unproven backup QB Jarrett Stidham . Therefore, Vegas installed the Patriots as 5.5-point favorites when the line first opened. It has since been bet down to 4.5.

But I am here to tell you, Vegas got it wrong. But before I do, I feel compelled to express why this has nothing to do with personal bias. I grew up in Boston and have been a life-long Patriots fan. So, I hope that I am wrong.

But there are far too many factors working against New England entering the AFC Championship. So, let's get to the 5 reasons that the Broncos will defeat the Patriots to reach the Super Bowl.

Sean Payton 's Wizardry

From the moment it was announced that Nix was done for the season, the Broncos have expressed confidence in Stidham . But what organization wouldn't? Of course, they stated they were confident he could run their offense.

But unlike almost every other organization, the Broncos have a head coach that can actually pull it off.

Payton is 14-7 in his career as head coach when starting a backup at quarterback . Granted, much of that was with Teddy Bridgewater in New Orleans . But the point still holds.

But maybe more importantly, the Patriots have essentially zero tape to study. That is a big deal.

The former Saints head coach built a reputation for being an offensive guru. I fully expect Denver to put Stidham in the best position possible to succeed on Sunday. And for anyone who counters with how well New England's defense played the first two weeks of the players, remember this: The Patriots were facing arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Denver has one of the best O lines in the league.

Stidham, who was drafted by New England and backed up Tom Brady for a year, is more athletic than most realize. I look for Payton to utilize that and get him on the move, in combination with a solid run game.

JK Dobbins ' Return to be a Problem

Speaking of the Denver running game, it appears that they will be getting J.K. Dobbins back this week.

Dobbins missed the second half of the year with a foot injury. Before going down, he led the team in all statistical rushing categories. But not just by default, he illustrated how effective he has always been.

He had 772 rushing yards and four touchdowns through nine games. For his career, Dobbins' 5.2 yards per carry ranks among the best in NFL history. Yes, you read that right. Among qualified running backs, Jamaal Charles has the greatest mark at 5.4.

His presence this week will allow Denver to let everyone play their proper role. Rookie tailback RJ Harvey will go back to being the complementary back, while Jaleel McGloughlin will become the third-down, pass-catching specialist.

I expect Denver to have success on the ground. The Patriots got Milton Williams back in Week 18 , and that is very important. But not enough to completely stop the Broncos from finding some success rushing the football.

Patriots' Captain to Miss the AFC Championship

One thing that typically helps a defense slow down an opposing run game is a defensive captain and Pro Bowler. That is something that the Patriots will not have this week.

On Friday, it was revealed that veteran linebacker Harold Landry will miss Sunday's game . Landry is dealing with a knee injury that will cost him the biggest game of the season. How big is that loss?

It looms rather large. He was a defensive captain for the Patriots, and for good reason. The 29-year-old led the team with 8.5 sacks this season and was one of the key contributors against the run.

Let's not forget, the biggest weakness of the Patriots' defense all season has been their inability to get to the quarterback. How effective will they be without their sack leader?

Drake Maye 's mistakes finally prove costly?

There is no denying that Patriots QB Drake Maye had a breakout season. He earned an MVP nomination after leading the NFL in completion percentage.

But there is also no denying that he has not played very well in his first two playoff starts. In wins against the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans , Maye threw two interceptions and fumbled the ball six times.

No, that is not a typo. Six fumbles, in two games, almost all of which came on strip sacks.

Maye led the NFL in deep throws. But this week, he'll face the best pass rush in the NFL. Denver finished the regular season with 68 sacks, only four shy of the record set by the 1984 Chicago Bears .

That is not a recipe for success.

The Patriots turned their opponents over even more in the two wins. If that doesn't happen again this week, New England will be in trouble.

History is not on the Patriots' side vs. the Broncos

Everyone knows that Mile High is one of the, if not the most difficult, places to play in the NFL. But that is especially true for New England.

Tom Brady began his career 10-0 in the playoffs. Guess where his first playoff loss came? Yeah, in Denver.

He later played two AFC Championship games in that same building, earning the same results . The Patriots, as a franchise, are 0-4 in Denver in the playoffs all-time.

But other factors are also working against the Patriots.

Denver has an extra day of rest. Home teams in conference title games are 21-7 straight up with an added day to prepare. Home underdogs of at least four points in conference title games are 9-0 vs. the spread, per Fox Sports. So, this game is a lock to be close if the Patriots were to win.

There are simply too many factors going in the wrong direction to ignore.

Again, I genuinely hope that I am wrong. But I do not believe I am. The Broncos will earn their ninth trip to the Super Bowl (would be second most ever behind Patriots' 11), 23-20.

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