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Analyzing the Senators' Struggles Since Tkachuk's Return
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- Analyzing the Senators' Struggles Since Tkachuk's Return
Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
Make no mistake about it, the Senators are struggling mightily right now, battling both on and off the ice issues. They've lost seven of their last nine and sit right near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Off the ice, Linus Ullmark has taken a leave of absence which has caused all sorts of shenanigans, with nasty rumours causing both the players and management feeling the need to combat the nonsense . Towards the end of November, the Senators situation wasn't nearly as grim. They had just finished a 20 game stretch without Brady Tkachuk, going 11-5-4. The reasonable thought was that the return of the Sens captain would improve the Senators to even greater heights. Instead, the team has gone backwards with a record of 8-12-1 since Tkachuk's return. Just how much is Tkachuk to blame for the team's struggles? Let's dive into the details.
READ MORE: Analyzing the Signing of James Reimer
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Key Senators Stats With and Without Tkachuk
Comparing a team's record with and without a player is unfair. To put wins and losses at the hands of one individual doesn't make sense in the ultimate team sport. Yes, the Senators have a better record without Tkachuk this year, but let's take a look at a few key stats that explain why.
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With Tkachuk (24 games):30.3 shots per game, 22.0 PP%, .856 SV%, 25.4 Shots against/game, 25.5 hits/60
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Without Tkachuk (20 games): 25.7 shots per game, 23.8 PP%, .881 SV%, 25.3 Shots against/game, 21.8 hits/60
The Senators average more shots and hits with Tkachuk in the lineup, which isn't surprising. That's what Tkachuk does- puts pucks to the net, and plays a physical game. Their power play is similar with and without him. They also give up similar shots against with and without him. The biggest difference, and it's drastic, is the team's save percentage.
Tkachuk's defensive play has never been a strength, and he's had some weaker effort defensive plays this season. To put an .856 SV% on him is silly, though.
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Brady Tkachuk By the Numbers
Tkachuk has scored 8 goals and 21 points in 24 games this season. Over a full 82 games, that would translate to 27 goals and 72 points. Over the previous four seasons, his 82 game average was 34 goals and 73 points. So, his goal scoring is down slightly, but that's while shooting just 8.2% (he's a lifetime 9.6% shooter). Otherwise, his production is exactly what you'd expect. So too is his hitting. He averaged 10.41 hits per 60 minutes last season. This season, he's at 10.45 hits/60.
Here are some 5 on 5 numbers for Tkachuk compared to last season:
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2024-25: 11.8 shots/60, 6.6 on-ice S%, .911 on-ice SV%
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2025-26: 13 shots/60, 6.8 on-ice S%, .867 on-ice SV%
Tkachuk is getting the puck to the net slightly more than a year ago with a similar team shooting percentage while on the ice. The big issue? His goalies don't stop the puck when he's on the ice this year, especially compared to a season ago when they were quite good while he was out there. This isn't a matter of him being on the ice for way more shots attempts against, either. With Tkachuk on the ice at 5 on 5, the Sens give up 11.9 shot attempts per game this season, compared to 13.3 last season.
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I won't pretend Tkachuk has been great defensively this year. In fact, he's put out for 5 on 5defensive zone starts just 20% of the time this season (compared to 29% last season). Nonetheless, he's not the main reason for this team's defensive issues at all.
Identity Issues For Tkachuk
From the time he was a rookie through the 2023-24 season, Brady Tkachuk was correctly viewed as a heart and soul player on a bad team. He wasn't the problem, he was going to be part of the solution once properly surrounded with enough talent. During that time, he wasn't known for his defensive play, but his offense and physicality won the fanbase over. Last season, the talent was there, and sure enough Tkachuk showed himself to be a quality captain for a playoff calibre team.
Comparing him to prior seasons, there's really only one big difference- he is not able to fight due to his hand injury. During his first seven seasons, Tkachuk was assessed 38 major penalties. That was tied for the sixth most in the NHL during that time. Especially in the losing seasons, it was easy to win the fanbase over with a spirited fight, which often helped the pain of yet another loss. Without that, he doesn't have those high intensity moments that pump up the fans nearly as much.
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Bottom Line
Tkachuk is not quite himself this season, mainly due to fighting being taken away from him. The team's struggles with him in the lineup have a lot more to do with the goalies playing poorly than it does Tkachuk. If we were to give credence to an individual player being the reason for a team's record, then Kurtis MacDermid would be the Sens MVP since the team is 10-3-3 when he plays.
As for what Tkachuk can do better, here's a possible solution- put the intensity usually reserved for fighting into the defensive side of the game. Tkachuk isn't asked to kill penalties or take on the tough defensive assignments. That doesn't mean he can't win the fans over with a blocked shot, back-check, or high effort shift in the defensive zone. From there, it's up to the goalies to start making some saves.
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