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Analyzing Steven Stamkos' Fit with the New Jersey Devils
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- Analyzing Steven Stamkos' Fit with the New Jersey Devils
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
The New Jersey Devils are seeking goals. It's a good thing, too, as they've struggled to create offense of late. The fix could very easily be that they get their franchise star back. However, reports state the Devils are looking externally, with former Stanley Cup Champion and future Hall of Famer, Steven Stamkos , in sight.
Whether you like it or not, the interest in Stamkos should come as no surprise. The Devils were named of the few suitors for the former Tampa Bay Lightning captain two summers ago. He opted for the Nashville Predators instead, who inked him to a four-year contract that carries an $8 million average annual value.
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However, things have not gone well for Stamkos in his post-Lightning career.
Stamkos scored his fewest goal total in a fully healthy, non Covid season since his rookie year in 2024-25, netting 27 goals. Currently, his eight goals through 27 games have him on pace for an even lower total by seasons end, with 24.
So, why do the Devils believe Stamkos will be part of the solution for more goals in New Jersey ?
For starters, there is a stark difference between the Predators team he plays for now, and the Lightning teams he played for in most of his career.
In Nashville , Stamkos is expected to shoulder the load and provide the offense. Whereas in Tampa Bay , Stamkos was the perfect scoring compliment to Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point , who drove the play and distributed the puck to him in elite fashion.
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No one in Nashville is doing that.
Filip Forsberg and Johnathan Marchessault are scorers, Ryan O'Reilly is a two-way center with defensive instincts, and the supporting cast isn't driving the play to open up the ice for Stamkos to score.
In New Jersey, that would certainly be provided. Sheldon Keefe could reunite Jack Hughes (when he's healthy) and Jesper Bratt , finally rounding out that line with a legitimate goalscorer after moving Tyler Toffoli at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline.
Certainly, Stamkos in New Jersey would be in a much different role than he is in Nashville, and he'd come to the Devils with an increased motivation going from a bottom-feeder to a contending team.
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Think of all those moments where Kucherov and Stamkos connected on a goal, and you can feasibly see that with Hughes and Bratt on his line.
Stamkos' booming shot could certainly help improve the Devils' offense. Like Toffoli, all he'd have to do is find open ice, and score while Hughes and Bratt took care of the rest.
However, a Devils trade for Stamkos doesn't come without risk.
For starters, Stamkos is 35 years old. He's got two seasons left on his deal, with a hefty cap hit. A potential deal would almost certainly require the Predators to retain money. Thus, increasing the compensation going the other way to Nashville.
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Perhaps Seamus Casey and a pair of second-round draft picks get it done.
Yet, the analytics on Stamkos are jarring. At first glance, he appears on the wrong side of creating chances and expected goals.
However, he's also on a team that struggles to drive play for itself, as the Predators are on the negative side of the expected goals and scoring chance differentials.
In short, a Devils trade for Stamkos is a calculated risk. It's a buy-low, high-risk, high-reward situation that could either put the Devils over the hump, or plummet their trajectory for several seasons.
The last time the Devils brought a former high-profile Lightning player to New Jersey, it didn't work out. In fact, it's still not what New Jersey thought they were buying.
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If they're going to buy on Stamkos, they just better be sure it's the Tampa Bay version, and not Nashville's.
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