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Aston Villa's next rebuild is already becoming clear after summer of major change
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- Aston Villa's next rebuild is already becoming clear after summer of major change
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Aston Villa changed an enormous amount during the summer and, having watched the club reshape the goalkeeper position, midfield and attack, I think you can already begin to see where the attention is likely to turn next.
From what I've heard, the defence is an area Villa are likely to look at next summer and, when you take a step back and look at the age profile of that part of the squad, it makes complete sense. This summer was largely about changing the make-up of the team further forward and replacing some extremely important players with younger ones who can hopefully grow into the next version of Emery's Villa, but eventually the same process is going to have to happen at centre-half.
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Tyrone Mings is 33, Pau Torres is around the 30 mark and Victor Lindelöf is also in that bracket, which leaves Taylor Harwood-Bellis as the obvious younger centre-half Villa have already put in place. I don't think Villa needed or wanted to rip the entire defence apart in the same window that so much else was changing, particularly after losing Ezri Konsa , because there has to be some continuity when you're rebuilding a team to this extent, but it looks like the next stage of that process is fairly obvious.
I'd be surprised if both Mings and Pau left in the same summer because that would be an enormous amount of experience and knowledge of Emery's system walking out of the door at once, but right now I'd probably put money on one of them not being here beyond next summer.
Pau's situation is particularly interesting because we know he has spoken about wanting to return to Villarreal eventually and, if Villa reach a point where he has a year remaining on his contract and there is no realistic prospect of another deal, there is naturally going to be a decision about whether you keep him for that final season or try to generate a fee while you still can. The complication is that he has been so central to the way Emery wants Villa to build from the back that replacing him isn't simply about finding another good centre-half.
That's the bit I think can get lost when people talk about refreshing the defence.
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Pau has given Villa a very particular way of progressing the ball and there aren't loads of centre-halves who can replicate it at his level, particularly on the left side. We've seen how important he can be when opponents press Villa because he's comfortable receiving the ball in difficult positions and finding passes through lines that other defenders probably wouldn't even attempt, so if he is the player Villa eventually move on from, the profile of the replacement will be every bit as important as the age.
Mings gives you something completely different but is equally difficult to replace in his own way. His leadership, his presence and his understanding of Aston Villa have been built over years rather than something you can simply buy in the transfer market, and we've seen repeatedly how much authority he brings to the back line when he's fit. At some point Villa have to get younger there, but doing it without losing too much of what Mings provides is another balancing act.
That is why Harwood-Bellis was an important signing even though I've been pretty clear that I don't think he can immediately replace Konsa at the level Konsa was operating at when he left. I thought Konsa was one of the finest defenders in Europe during his final period at Villa and finding somebody of the same age who could walk straight in and reproduce that level was probably impossible within the financial reality Villa were working under.
Instead they've bought somebody younger who has come through the England age groups, already has senior international experience and has always had leadership qualities. The hope has to be that Harwood-Bellis develops into the level Villa need rather than arriving there already, and if that happens you've suddenly got one side of the centre-back partnership sorted for a significant period of time.
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The next question is whether Villa attempt to do something similar on the left.
If Lindelöf remains around, as appears possible with discussions over his future, you could eventually have a really sensible balance where Harwood-Bellis is the younger option on the right with an experienced player alongside him in the squad, while Villa recruit somebody younger to begin taking over from either Pau or Mings on the left. You don't need to remove all of the older players at once; you need to make sure you're not reaching a point where three centre-halves need replacing in the same window.
I think that's probably the lesson from what Villa have done this summer as well. The squad has changed considerably because circumstances forced some of it, but the club have generally tried to replace players approaching or already around their peak years with people who should have significant development ahead of them. Suzuki is the clearest example in goal, João Gomes gives the midfield a younger profile, Ibrahim Mbaye has enormous potential and Harwood-Bellis fits exactly the same idea in defence.
The difficulty Villa have, and one that is only going to become more important as they plan the next stage of the squad, is maintaining the right number of homegrown and club-trained players while doing it.
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Villa have lost several players who helped them in that regard and finding British replacements isn't straightforward when the market puts such a premium on them. You only have to look at what a young English centre-half can cost before he's established himself at the very highest level to understand why clubs increasingly look abroad, because in plenty of cases you can find a player with comparable experience for substantially less money.
Garnacho actually helps Villa from a registration perspective because of where he was developed despite not being English, while John McGinn 's situation shows how strange some of those rules can look from the outside. Then you have somebody like Lamare Bogarde , whose value to the squad isn't exclusively about what he can contribute on the pitch because being club-trained makes him extremely useful when Villa are putting together European squads.
That doesn't mean Villa have kept Bogarde purely to fill a registration spot because he's a player Emery clearly trusts and there were opportunities to move him on if that was what the club wanted, but it absolutely adds to his importance. When you've qualified for the Champions League and you're trying to maximise the quality of the squad you can register, those details become part of recruitment whether supporters find them particularly exciting or not.
It's also why simply saying Villa should go and buy two young English centre-halves next summer isn't particularly realistic. They will obviously be aware of British players and I'd expect them to continue looking at that market, but if the difference is £50million for one player domestically or half of that for somebody abroad who the recruitment team believe can reach the same level, the financial pressures Villa have operated under make that a very difficult decision.
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The encouraging thing is that I don't think there are loads of other areas of the squad that obviously require major surgery if the players signed this summer develop as Villa hope. The goalkeeper department looks set, the midfield could eventually contain Kamara, Gomes, Goretzka and Onana, while the attacking rebuild has already been substantial with Jackson, Manzambi , Mbaye and the other options Emery now has available.
That doesn't mean Villa won't sign players in those areas because every good club should constantly look for opportunities to improve, but the obvious structural job appears to be at the back.
A lot can change between now and next summer, particularly with contracts, form and injuries, but I think we're beginning to see the shape of Villa's next recruitment cycle already. This summer was about replacing some of the players who helped establish Emery's Villa with a younger group capable of taking it forward, and the next job will probably be making sure the defence doesn't grow old together.
Villa have already started that process with Harwood-Bellis. The difficult bit will be deciding which of the players who have been so important to Emery's team he eventually succeeds.
