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The Ball State Cardinals take on the Bowling Green Falcons in Bowling Green, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Bowling Green is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -265. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here's my Ball State vs. Bowling Green predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.
Ball State vs. Bowling Green Pick: Ball State +7.5 (Play to +6)
My Bowling Green vs. Ball State best bet is on Ball State to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
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Ball State vs Bowling Green point spread: Bowling Green -6.5 (-116 ), Ball State +6.5 (-105)
Ball State vs Bowling Green over/under: 47.5 (-108o / -113u)
Ball State vs Bowling Green moneyline: Ball State +210, Bowling Green -265
Bowling Green has started out 2-0 in league play, which may come as a surprise to some after how inept the team looked to start the season. However, I'm not buying the mini resurgence.
The Falcons benefited from facing Miami (OH) (in a game it won in the final seconds) with its third-string quarterback and then Sacramento State (the worst team in FBS) with its backup quarterback.
They also got a very friendly whistle in both victories, with the RedHawks and Hornets combining for 19 penalties for 188 yards (many drive-extending defensive flags) to just nine for 89 themselves.
This is still a horrendous BG offense with a D-II transfer quarterback who has a 2:8 big-time throw-to-turnover ratio playing behind a very vulnerable rebuilt offensive line with a lack of reliable weapons on the outside.
The Falcons do have some talent on the defense (although they did lose their best cornerback to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago), led by edge Myles Bradley, but they just don't have the offensive personnel to consistently move the ball.
They also play at a very slow pace, which makes them unappetizing as a favorite of a touchdown -plus unless they're playing Sacramento State.
Don't get me wrong — Ball State is an atrocious ball club.
The Cardinals have started out 0-2 in league play with double-digit losses vs. Toledo and Kent State , but keep in mind they played the latter with a backup quarterback. It's a much different offense with a healthy Keldric Luster under center.
Last week, as a five-touchdown underdog at ranked Northwestern , Ball State finished with 360 total yards of offense.
The defense has plenty of holes, but the run defense is decent enough to hold its own against the impotent Falcons, who want to establish the run under head coach Eddie George.
Keep in mind BG laid a similar price last week against Sacramento State's backup quarterback (who didn't even start at Idaho State last season), and I have Ball State power-rated four points better than the Hornets (at full strength) on a neutral field.
Plus, the Cardinals don't have any major travel to worry about.
This looks like a prime opportunity to fade Bowling Green following three straight covers, with the first coming in a superb situational spot, while the last two came against second- and third-string quarterbacks.
