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Basket Under Review Staff Hot Takes
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- Basket Under Review Staff Hot Takes
At some point during the offseason, everyone anchors themselves to a thought so preposterous, so absurd, that it provokes backlash from the masses.
We've compiled the hottest takes from the Basket Under Review staff and organized them neatly so you can refer back when they're either dead on or dead wrong.
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Brian Rauf
VCU or Saint Louis earns a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Saint Louis and VCU split the league title at 15-3 last season, and both are set up to be even better. Josh Schertz brings back a deep guard group led by Trey Green (44.2 percent from three) and enough roster talent to field a top-25 team.
However, the more talented team may be in Richmond. Phil Martelli Jr. has Lazar Djokovic and Nyk Lewis back at VCU, plus productive transfers Torey Alston (Middle Tennessee) and Blake Harper (Creighton). I'm hedging on which one because I think both have the potential to be that good, but I'm not hedging on the A-10 producing a team that ends up on the four-line or better.
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Trilly Donovan
DePaul wins 20 games for the first time since 2007.
Chris Holtmann won eight Big East games last season, the program's most since 2007. KenPom currently projects they'll finish 18-14. Torvik says 17-15. I think they'll get to 20 wins.
Why? Defense. They say it travels and wins championships. I'm not quite at win-a-championship-level belief, but this team will thrive in the grimy, 60-point Big East rock fights.
Listen to the excitement in Will Warren's voice.
I am all in on DePaul and I don't care who hears it.
Will Warren
Texas finishes the season unranked.
By the time this article is published you will be able to read The Sucker Bet , which is my yearly ranking of the AP Top 10 teams most likely to finish unranked, as at least one has done this in 19 of the last 20 seasons. No matter how I sliced the data this year...no matter how I weighted coaching performance...no matter how I tried to define 'fit', the data I use kept the same team at the top of the list even while alternating #2-#4: Texas.
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The Longhorns have a ton of talent, and I am sure Sean Miller isn't afraid to use it. However! This is a classic of the New Parts Superteam genre, down to a questionable offensive fit and possibly surprising amounts of non-shooting. Texas's roster members who played D1 basketball last year combined to shoot just 34% from 3 and 36% on midrange jumpers. Reclassified #1 recruit Marcus Spears, Jr. shot 16-for-66 (24%) from 3 across 40 high school games/EYBL performances last year. 5* guy Austin Goosby: 35% on about 3.3 attempts per game.
I think this team can and should defend well, but just one of Sean Miller's last 10 teams finished inside the top-25 in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings. Given how easy it is to picture this team being incredibly reliant on getting to the foul line, what happens in a game with lenient officiating against defenses that force them to take jumpers? What happens if this defense, which really should be quite good, is instead just a top-25 unit?
I personally don't see a ton of great answers here, and weirdly, it reminds me a bit of the first Chris Beard team that had a ton of athletes and defensive upside but also couldn't shoot. Every year we have a Negative Surprise from the top 10; Texas feels like the best bet to me.
Rocco Miller
Arizona State will wear home white uniforms in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament
What happened to the basketball experts that I thought I knew and loved? How on Earth is any team, at any level, coached by Randy Bennett, picked 12th in a conference? I already feel bad for the coffee I spit out when the Big 12 preseason poll dropped.
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This program is much more than RB. Picking against them is literally playing with fire, as Sparky would precisely dare you to do. Rick Croy, who led Cal Baptist to the WAC Title last year, is the Co-Associate. Two proven championship coaches coaching together at the top. Dillan Shaw and Paulus Murauskas are veteran leaders who simply win together. In the past two seasons, the tandem has beaten Gonzaga three times, beaten Vanderbilt in the NCAAs, beaten USC, beaten Nebraska, beaten Santa Clara three times, and has a combined record of 56-12 together.
ASU built a full team around Shaw and Murauskas. Emmanuel Innocenti offers a ton of winning experience and terrific glue on both ends. Ben Defty becomes the next Wessels-type to take up space and simply annoy opponents, while also being a dependable weapon on the interior. Joel Foxwell showed he is a star in the making last year at Portland, and in the exhibition win recently at New Mexico.
Randy's other Associates are David Patrick (a multi-time D1 head coach) and the rising star, Joe Rahon. This is an all-star staff, folks. Losing is not an option in Tempe anymore. The schedule is manageable, yet will bring a scheme for the NET and WAB tools with it. This program is the most secure program you will find of all of the new head coaches in the country.
I project the Sun Devils as a safe 7-seed, and certainly think you will see them in the NCAA Tournament with plenty of room to spare.
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Sam Federman
SoCal Takes: USC misses the NCAA Tournament/Pepperdine finishes 3rd in WCC
I know that Eric Musselman has what is expected to be his best roster at USC, but they still have too many flaws to leap into the NCAA Tournament range that most people have them pegged for. A lineup of this team's best players does not have enough ball-handling. Are you benching Rodney Rice or KJ Lewis to play Jalen Cox? So much of this team relies on Alijah Arenas, who I was not impressed by at any level last year, and who wasn't high on in high school. I don't like the frontcourt much either. The Ratliffs can't play together, Christian Collins is a year away, and Eric Reibe didn't want to fight for a starting spot at UConn. I love Jacob Cofie, but is that enough?
Meanwhile, on the other hand, I'm really high on Pepperdine if the Waves can be healthy. In a wide-open WCC, Griff Aldrich has a talented group in year one. Will McClendon is the steady, experienced PG. Evan Haywood and Jahari Williamson are snipers on the wing. Petar Majstorovic brings some power forward creation and rebounding, while Anthony Robinson is more than physical and athletic enough to be a five-man in this league. That's not even mentioning top-50 recruit Alex Constanza or a deep international class, including PG Oren Sahar.
Ky McKeon
The Big South gets two teams into the NCAA Tournament; High Point is a Bid Stealer
This is just a crazy hunch – there is no scientific reasoning. High Point is by far the best team in the Big South and is likely to run the table in conference play. The Panthers' budget rivals smaller high-major schools, and they have real power-level talent on their roster.
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HPU's non-con schedule is strong enough to warrant at-large consideration if they drop one, maybe two games then go 16-0 in the Big South. A tilt at SLU on November 15thand at LSU on December 18thare the toughest tests, but HPU also faces other A-10 schools like George Mason and Duquesne and some respectable mid-majors in Liberty, Washington State, Montana State, and Miami Ohio.
A split in the two Quad 1 games gives them a fighting chance at a big should they lose in the Big South championship. I hereby project the following for HPU: 1) a non-conference record of 14-2 with a win at LSU; 2) a 16-0 Big South regular season mark; 3) a loss to Winthrop in the Big South conference title game; a 4) an at-large bid to the 76-team Tournament.
Matthew Winick
The SEC finishes with the best average KenPom adjusted rating of all-time
Two years ago, the SEC's average +22.09 net rating was the highest in KenPom history. It had four teams in the top 10, eight teams in the top 25, and only LSU and South Carolina were outside the top 50. With the increase of NIL funds and the largest average team spending being in SEC, it's only a matter of time before the conference one-ups itself.
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Right now, only Florida (2) and Alabama (9) are inside the top 10. Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Arkansas could all easily fall in that range. The only teams outside the top 50 are LSU, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Mississippi State has a better supporting cast around Josh Hubbard, South Carolina seems to have a European star in Juan Fernandez, and LSU could very well be a top team in the sport now that Will Wade has his near-optimal roster. At least one of those teams will climb into the top 50.
While I'd love to stand up here and say that parity will improve in the sport and we'll get our Cinderellas back, there was just too much money out on the open market for that to happen. The SEC has been the best conference for multiple years now, and it should surpass itself this season and lay claim to the best average campaign for its teams in KenPom history.
Jim Root
Houston finishes top 10 in BOTH turnover rate and offensive rebound rate
Houston offenses live in the midrange, and that drives some folks crazy . But they remain elite because they dominate possessions, crushing the glass and taking care of the rock. However, no Sampson team has ever quite accomplished this feat:
In fact, no team has managed to rank top 10 in both since 2012 North Carolina (Kendall Marshall, John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, etc.).
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The roster sets up perfectly for it this year. New point guard Dedan Thomas is as sure-handed as they come, having amassed 400 career assists to just 150 turnovers. Likely perimeter starters Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty both posted miniscule miscue rates as reserves last year. The main concern would be the frontcourt's decision-making, but the Cougars' scheme never asks them to do much playmaking.
They are, however, asked to chase rebounds relentlessly, and there may be no better quartet in the country at that than Houston's frontcourt. JoJo Tugler, Delrecco Gillespie, Arafan Diane and Braden East are all physical specimens, and the Cougars should gobble up boards like the 2020-23 editions.
