Bears, Packers playoff chances after Green Bay wins Week 14 epic at Lambeau

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Bears, Packers playoff chances after Green Bay wins Week 14 epic at Lambeau

Enzo Flojo, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Tue, Dec 9, 2025 ·

5 min read

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The NFL rarely delivers drama as consistently as the Bears – Packers rivalry. Week 14's primetime showdown at Lambeau Field was a cinematic reminder of why these matchups matter so much. In a heated battle featuring explosive plays, late-game heroics, and a season-altering interception, the Packers emerged with a pivotal 28-21 victory that flipped the NFC North race on its head. Now Green Bay stands atop the division at 9-3-1. Chicago , meanwhile, falls to 9-4. They must now confront the increasingly real possibility of entering January not as a division champion, but as a wild card.

Rivalry reborn

The Packers edged the Chicago Bears in a tense Week 14 NFC North showdown in a win that vaulted them into first place. It also set up a monumental rematch at Soldier Field later this month. Jordan Love delivered one of his sharpest performances of the season. He sliced through the Bears' secondary with three touchdown strikes. Those were 23 and 41 yards to Christian Watson and a 45-yard bomb to Bo Melton . Green Bay built a 14-3 halftime lead thanks to its vertical passing game and a Bears offense that sputtered early.

Chicago found new life after halftime behind Caleb Williams . Despite an abysmal 6-of-14, 32-yard first half, he rallied with grit and command down the stretch. Williams finished with 186 yards and two touchdowns. He also led a 17-play, 83-yard marathon drive capped by a 1-yard toss to Colston Loveland to tie the game at 21 midway through the fourth. However, with the Bears threatening to complete the comeback, his end-zone interception to Keisean Nixon with 22 seconds left sealed the defeat.

Earlier, Green Bay stuffed Kyle Monangai on a decisive fourth-and-1 inside the red zone. Josh Jacobs also punched in a go-ahead 2-yard score with 3:32 remaining. In a game defined by inches and late-game resolve, the Packers made one more play than their rivals.

Here we'll try to look at and discuss the Bears, Packers playoff chances after Green Bay wins Week 14 epic at Lambeau.

Packers playoff path strengthens

The Packers' Week 14 win dramatically strengthened their postseason outlook. Now sitting at 9-3-1 and riding a four-game winning streak, Green Bay owns the NFC's No. 2 seed. They also carry a commanding statistical profile into the season's final month. According to multiple playoff models , including updated simulations following the Lambeau win, the Packers now boast a playoff probability at around 95 percent. Their division title chances have also risen to around 68 percent. The victory over Chicago granted them both a head-to-head advantage and invaluable leverage should the NFC North come down to a photo finish.

This late-season surge has been powered by Love's precision and confidence. They have also balanced this with a revitalized run game anchored by Josh Jacobs. The Packers' remaining schedule includes the Broncos , Bears, Ravens , and Vikings. That is one of the more challenging closing slates in the conference. A slip-up in Denver could drop their playoff odds back below 90 percent. That said, winning the Soldier Field rematch in Week 16 would all but secure the division.

To wit, the Athletic playoff simulator projects Green Bay to finish 11-5-1. It is likely good enough for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That would set up an intriguing possibility: a third meeting with the Bears, this time in the Wild Card Round. The simulator gives the Packers a 10 percent chance at a first-round bye and an 8 percent chance to hoist the Lombardi in Super Bowl LX. Considering where this team stood in early October, those odds reflect one of the league's most impressive turnarounds.

Bears playoff chances dip

On the opposite sideline, Chicago's Week 14 loss stings. It not only cost them control of the NFC North. Additionally, it exposed flaws that had been masked by their eight-wins-in-nine-games surge. Now 9-4, the Bears fall from the conference's top seed all the way to No. 7. Their playoff probability slid to arouncd 70 percent. Their NFC North title chances also plummeted to 26 percent. That reflects both the loss to Green Bay and the brutal schedule ahead. The Bears are set to play the Browns, Packers again, 49ers , and Lions.

Yet Chicago remains firmly in the playoff picture. Their path forward is steep but navigable. Caleb Williams ' second-half rally showed the resilience and upside that make the Bears dangerous in any game. On the flip side, the offense's inconsistency and early-game stagnation remain troubling. Chicago's defense generated key moments in the second half. However, blown coverages and missed opportunities proved costly. These reinforce how thin their margin for error has become.

The Athletic simulator projects the Bears to finish 11-6. This would place them seventh in the NFC and likely set up another showdown with Green Bay on Wild Card weekend. They still hold a 4 percent chance at a first-round bye and 2 percent odds to win Super Bowl LX. Those numbers could climb sharply with a late-season surge. If Chicago wins most of their remaining games, including avenging the Week 14 loss, models estimate their playoff odds jump to 81 percent. As such, they would have a 69 percent chance of stealing the NFC North. Still, every misstep from here on out tightens the noose.

Pressure rising on both sides

The Packers now control their destiny, but their slate is unforgiving. Denver and Baltimore are formidable defensive teams. The Bears rematch could swing the division. Chicago, meanwhile, faces three playoff-caliber opponents in their final four games. That makes their Week 16 revenge attempt one of the most consequential matchups of the entire NFL season.

The NFC North isn't over. Week 14, though, ensured the road to the crown now runs through Green Bay's discipline and Chicago's desperation.

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