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Behind The Numbers: Week 6 FCS Football Preview
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- Behind The Numbers: Week 6 FCS Football Preview
Austin Peay quarterback Chris Parson (3) | Preston Ludwick (APSU Athletics)
Week 6 of the 2026 college football season is finally here. We have another edition of our "Behind the Numbers" series here at FCS Football Central .
Our goal is to highlight teams every week and bring you what I think will be the most important statistic to monitor for that specific game. This isn't a comprehensive preview of the game; we will have that in another article each week, but it will allow me to give you important tidbits on a wide variety of games throughout the season.
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Let's take a deep dive behind the numbers of the biggest Week 6 games across the FCS.
No. 3 Tarleton State at No. 9 Austin Peay
Who can play the "Bend But Don't Break" defensive approach more effectively?
This Top 10 UAC matchup features two of the best offenses in FCS football this weekend. Tarleton State ranks 9th in down-to-down success rate (48.7%), 35th in explosiveness, and 12th in passing-down success rate (38.8%). Austin Peay ranks 32nd in down-to-down success rate (43.4%), 3rd in explosiveness, and 25th in passing-down success rate (34.5%).
The Texans lead the country in yards per play (7.94), while the Govs aren't far behind at 3rd nationally (7.39). Everybody should expect fireworks on Saturday night. The key here will be which defense can keep the other team from generating long, explosive touchdowns. They are going to have to force the other offense to sustain long drives and make them execute in the red zone, where the field shrinks.
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We saw Tarleton State struggle to execute in those moments against Bowling Green, and that's why the Texans only scored 20 points despite moving the ball really well throughout the game. On the other side, Austin Peay is crushing teams with long passing plays. They lead the country with 16.9 yards per completion. Jaden Robinson, Marvin Sims, and Denver Harper can create explosive plays at any given moment. The Texans have to keep those big plays from becoming touchdowns.
On the face of it, it seems like this may favor Austin Peay. The Govs have been more consistent defensively, ranking 24th in defensive success rate, while Tarleton State's defense ranks 39th nationally. The Texans actually have solid numbers against the run, but the passing defense has struggled.
Those struggles in the secondary are linked to the lack of an effective pass rush for Tarleton State. Meanwhile, the Govs are 11th nationally with 6.8 TFLs per game and have 13 sacks this season. Keep an eye on this, as negative plays paired with potential for turnovers could give Austin Peay the possession advantage they need to get the win.
The final X-factor is Austin Peay quarterback Chris Parson. He rushed for 194 yards against the Texans last season in an overtime loss. His legs could be a real difference-maker in the red zone.
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No. 2 Montana at No. 13 Northern Arizona
Can Northern Arizona find a way to force turnovers?
How well does Montana's secondary tackle in space?
While Northern Arizona has started to play its best football of the season at the right time, there is no hiding that they continue to put up bad down-to-down numbers. The Lumberjacks have the 123rd-ranked defense on a down-to-down basis. Even more alarming for this matchup, NAU has the 124th-ranked defensive rushing success rate. So what is keeping them in these games?
The Lumberjacks rank 1st nationally with 16 turnovers forced in six games (9 INTs, 7 FFs). They also had some huge 4th down stops last week against Idaho State. NAU is going to have to use this same formula again. The problem?
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This Montana offense is turning into an absolute force. They have the best running back in the country and possibly the best offensive line unit. Keali'i Ah Yat has faced less pressure than any other full-time starter this season. If Montana isn't in 3rd-and-long, and if they aren't under pressure, it's hard to imagine they will turn the football over if they aren't in stressful situations.
On the other side of the ball, two things have changed for Northern Arizona. Over the past few games, NAU has changed the profile of its passing attack. They have focused a much higher percentage of their throws near the LOS and in the quick-passing game. This has led to a much more efficient completion percentage and a huge increase in yards after the catch.
Last week, the Lumberjacks had over 200 YAC, led by tight end Jeter Purdy. In a matchup against a potentially banged-up Montana secondary, how well the Griz are able to tackle in space will be very important.
No. 25 Southern Illinois at No. 10 South Dakota
Can the Salukis establish the quarterback run game?
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South Dakota has been an absolute force in the DakotaDome this season. The Coyotes have outscored opponents 144-57, but that's not even indicative of how lopsided these games have been. Opponents have largely only scored in garbage time; the three opposing offenses have scored a combined 13 points in the first half. The competition hasn't been amazing, but each of these teams would be considered top-half FCS teams.
The only real weakness South Dakota has shown this season was at the Youngstown State game, where they struggled to run the ball and stop the QB run game of Beau Brungard. Enter Southern Illinois, which has actually been much improved defensively this season. If you only look at conference games, SIU has the 4th-best run defense in the MVFC, holding opponents to 4.4 YPC. Charles Pierre Jr. versus this defensive front will be a huge matchup to watch.
The downside for Southern Illinois is that this offense is just not good right now. The Salukis have the 78th-ranked offense in the country in terms of success rate. DJ Williams has the physical tools to potentially expose South Dakota's defense on the edges like Beau Brungard was able to, but it just hasn't been there this season.
Williams had 847 rushing yards last season, including six games with 70 yards or more. This season, he has yet to reach the 70-yard mark, and in the past three games, he has 28 rushing yards on 30 carries. Southern Illinois needs this to turn around this week if they want to pull off the upset.
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Incarnate Word at No. 11 Lamar
Can Incarnate Word keep getting off the mat?
The momentum for these two teams couldn't be going in more opposite directions. Lamar is on the verge of breaking into the Top 10, remains undefeated against the FCS, and while the defense has been excellent, the offense has exploded over the past two games with dominant performances. Aiden McCown is playing the best football of his career.
On the other side, Incarnate Word has to feel like they are only a few plays away from being 4-1 themselves. UIW doubled up NAU in total yards on the road, but turned the ball over six times. They also battled back on the road against Stephen F. Austin, nearly winning that game, but fell short once again. The Cardinals have no time to feel sorry for themselves as they have to hit the road to face an extremely talented Lamar team.
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Lamar has just been excellent this year. Even if you include their FBS loss, the Cardinals have the 7th-best overall team efficiency metrics in the country. The defense remains elite, but the offense actually has the 6th-best success rate in the country. Lamar ranks Top 3 nationally with a 46.9% success rate in 3rd-and-long situations. The only two comparable teams are North Dakota and Youngstown State.
What does this mean for Incarnate Word? The Cardinals and their up-tempo offense are going to have to drive and put up points consistently to win this game. The problem with that? Incarnate Word is tied for 2nd-worst in the country with 15 turnovers. It's the only thing that this offense hasn't done well. If quarterback Emmett Brown can take care of the football, UIW is going to have a chance to hang around in this game.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/fcs as Behind The Numbers: Week 6 FCS Football Preview .
