The football gods were smiling down on the steel city last Sunday night as Tyler Loop 's boot stayed wide right as time expired, effectively sending the Pittsburgh Steelers to the postseason. Their reward for clinching the AFC North for the first time since 2020? Welcoming the scorching-hot Houston Texans , winners of nine straight to close the season, to town for a Monday Night slugfest.
Unsurprisingly, this matchup has the lowest projected point total of the weekend, but with their recent history of getting blown out in the postseason, Mike Tomlin and company probably aren't too opposed to an old-school rock fight.
There's a legitimate argument to be made that the Texans have the best defense in the entire NFL after finishing 2nd in EPA/play, success rate, and points per drive. When you study their film, there are not a ton of bells and whistles to their approach. They don't throw a bunch of funky disguises at opposing quarterbacks; for the most part, they line up and just knock the crap out of people.
As the old adage goes, teams take on the identity of their head coach, and DeMeco Ryans
' S.W.A.R.M. (Special Work Ethic and Relentless Mindset) mantra sets the standard for his group on defense. Simply put, they stop the run on first/second down before allowing their four-man pass rush to hunt on third downs.
Pittsburgh's offense was respectable this year, finishing middle of the pack in the critical categories, considering their lack of financial investment on that side of the ball compared to other teams. With Aaron Rodgers running the show, their passing attack is unique and, honestly, unlike any other team in the league. No passer got rid of the ball quicker (2.57-second average time to throw) or shorter (6.2 air yards per attempt) than the 42-year-old. While unconventional, spitting the ball out quickly to the playmakers has given the Steelers an identity through the air, with several key contributors to thank for that success.
Among tailbacks with at least 125 touches, Jaylen Warren led the entire NFL in forced missed tackle rate. His counterpart and Team MVP Kenneth Gainwell has been a massive part of their game plan, and someone that Rodgers has offered effusive praise of. Prior to his injury, Darnell Washington seemed to have at least one reception per week in the flat that ended with him truck-sticking defenders. Even DK Metcalf , who was never used in this manner during his time in Seattle , is averaging a career high in yards after the catch. Bottom line, this Steelers offense will make you pay if you don't tackle well in space. Ask the Baltimore Ravens , who found that out the hard way last weekend.
There's just one problem: the Texans defense ranks first in yards per pass (4.6) and EPA/play (-0.30) on throws that travel less than 10 air yards via Next Gen Stats. Their defense is fast and physical, priding itself on getting as many helmets to the ball as possible on every single rep. Sure, there's the occasional missed tackle, but that's often immediately followed by a big hit from a teammate. That alone won't prevent Rodgers from playing his brand of ball, but what if Houston successfully eliminates the easy buttons in Pittsburgh's passing attack? Then what?
First, they'll need to figure out how to keep Rodgers upright and comfortable in the pocket, knowing that the Texans' edge duo has combined for 27 sacks and a whopping 176 pressures this season. Both Dylan Cook and Troy Fautanu have fared well in pass protection and clearly exceeded expectations, but this is their toughest test yet. Knowing their tendencies, it feels like additional chip help will be offered, although that comes at the cost of reducing the number of true eligibles in the route concept. That's suboptimal for a team without a ton of threatening receivers that create space on their own accord.
Now officially reinstated from his two-game suspension, Metcalf's return will be a welcomed sight for both Rodgers and Arthur Smith. Houston boasts one of, if not the top, cornerback duos in the entire NFL with Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter , both of whom relish any opportunity to press receivers at the line of scrimmage. The latter of those two can occasionally be stacked vertically due to a lack of speed, but it's difficult to see the Steelers envisioning this matchup being their pathway to victory. There's a reason that this defense can be simplistic in design and it's because they've got some legit dudes in the secondary.
If there is a blemish to the Texans' pass defense, it's the coverage ability of their linebackers, specifically Henry To'oTo'o. He's a useful player versus the run, but someone that teams have been able to isolate in coverage with choice routes and vertical shots. If Gainwell isn't constricted to helping in pass protection, perhaps he's the beneficiary of some additional volume. Tight end Pat Freiermuth hasn't been a focal part of the Steelers' game plan all season long, yet he has produced extremely well when the ball has been thrown in his direction. The Penn State product finished the year ranked 10th in EPA/target among qualified players at his position, according to Next Gen Stats .
Despite the lack of box score production, it's no coincidence that Rodgers' best moments as a Steeler have come in up-tempo settings such as the two-minute drill, where he's running the show at the line of scrimmage. Coincidentally, that's when Freiermuth has come alive as well. Last week, the pair hooked up for a 31-yard strike on a stick-nod against a drop-8 coverage, their longest play from scrimmage on the day. On the season, the Texans have done an admirable job neutralizing tight ends, but it should be noted that Trey McBride went off for 134 yards and two touchdowns less than a month ago.
Yes, the Steelers will surely try to run the rock on Monday night. Given how stout the Texans are against the run, it feels like a foregone conclusion that the ball will be in the hands of Rodgers down the stretch with a chance to reward Tomlin with his first playoff win since 2016. After all, this is why they brought him here. Will he deliver? We'll see.
This article originally appeared on Steelers Now : Bell: Is this Finally the Week the Steelers Unleash Pat Freiermuth?
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