The Chicago Bears are expected to face a daunting schedule based on 2025 win totals and another stat from the 2025 season makes the upcoming slate look even worse for head coach Ben Johnson.
No matter how you look at it, the Chicago Bears are going to have a difficult slate
during the 2026 season as the team looks to repeat as NFC North champs and improve upon last season's unexpected success.
Based on 2025 win totals, the Bears are slated to have the NFL's hardest strength of schedule
. However, that doesn't factor in changes teams made throughout the offseason and doesn't paint an accurate picture. However, even Warren Sharp's model (that uses projected win totals) lists the Bears with the sixth-hardest strength of schedule.
To counter those concerns, the Bears had the second-hardest strength of schedule for the 2025 season based on 2024 win totals and the seventh-hardest according to Sharp's model. Yet, the Bears still won 11 games and took the division title.
Now, there's another ranking based on the 2025 season looking to plant more seeds of regression for the Bears, this time targeting Ben Johnson's offense.
Seahawk Nerd on X posted another 2026 schedule ranking over the weekend that listed the strength of schedule for each offense in the league based on last season's defensive DVOA rankings. Chicago ranked 30th, with the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers as the only offenses set to face a harder defensive slate.
| Team |
Defensive DVOA Rank 2025 |
|---|---|
| Panthers |
22nd |
| Vikings |
3rd |
| Eagles |
7th |
| 31st |
|
| 19th |
|
| Falcons |
12th |
| 23rd |
|
| 1st |
|
| 18th |
|
| 13th |
|
| Lions |
9th |
| 6th |
|
| Dolphins |
24th |
| Bills |
20th |
The toughest defense the Bears are set to face based on last year's defensive DVOA rankings is the Seattle Seahawks, the reigning Super Bowl champs. Seattle didn't lose much on defense either (outside of safety Coby Bryant
, who fittingly signed with Chicago). That game will also be played on the road.
The Minnesota Vikings
will be the another tough test for the Bears with two games against Brian Flores. Chicago was held to 24 and 19 points during the two meetings against Flores' unit last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles , and Detroit Lions all ranked Top-10 last season in defensive DVOA and are expected to be top defensive units again this year.
And then you have bounce-back units such as the New England Patriots (under Mike Vrabel), Miami Dolphins (under new HC Jeff Hafley), and Green Bay Packers (under new DC Jonathan Gannon).
It really is going to be a gauntlet for Ben Johnson's offense this upcoming season. And it's even more grim when looking at the rankings for the other NFC North teams: Vikings (1st), Lions (3rd), Packers (18th).
Haters will use this as ammo to knock down the Bears. However, Johnson and his offense didn't back down from any defense last year and won't plan to this year either.
