Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Duke in 2026

Head coach Manny Diaz and the rest of the Duke football program underwent what was likely the most chaotic offseason of any team in college football.

The drama began when Blue Devil star quarterback Darian Mensah shockingly entered the transfer portal with hours to go until the entry window closed. Mensah had previously publicly announced his return to Durham in 2026.

This led to the Duke suing Mensah for violating the terms of the NIL contract between the two, but the matter was resolved before it ever went to court. Duke's top wide receiver from 2025, Cooper Barkate , also hit the portal at the last second. Both transferred to Miami.

Duke also lost key pieces such as Chandler Rivers , Wesley Williams, and Brian Parker to the NFL Draft, leaving an overhaul job for Diaz and Co. this offseason.

Coming off their first ACC Championship since 1989 and a totally new roster, let's go over the best- and worst-case scenarios for Duke football in 2026.

Best Case Scenario: 10-2, Repeat ACC Champions

Bold prediction? Maybe. But after Duke won the ACC at 7-5 a season ago, who's to believe a little magic can't repeat itself?

Obviously, for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back conference crowns, a lot of things have to go right. That starts at the quarterback position. Right now, the presumed starter is Walker Eget, a transfer from San Jose State .

Eget showed flashes of arm strength but has also struggled to take care of the football throughout his career, tallying 30 touchdowns to 19 interceptions across his two seasons as a starter for the Spartans.

Additionally, on both sides of the ball, several of the Duke newcomers will need to step up and fill in for the voids left this offseason. This is a pretty bold prediction, but why not go high with the ceiling? Duke's projected two losses in this scenario are at Miami and at home to Clemson in two of the final three weeks of the regular season.

Worst Case Scenario: 5-7, Championship Hangover

The opposite of what was just said, in this scenario, nothing clicks for the Blue Devils. They struggle mightily on the road and suffer several losses to middle-of-the-pack ACC games.

Road contests against squads like Georgia Tech , Virginia, and NC State trip Duke up, and it quickly becomes a season to forget for Diaz and Co. However, it's hard to imagine anything worse than a 5-7 record.

This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/duke as Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Duke in 2026 .