Story by
Big Ten Basketball Preview Part 5: The Favorites
- Story by
- Big Ten Basketball Preview Part 5: The Favorites
Sixteen teams down, just two to go. I think in the rest of the conference I zigged from the national consensus with quite a few teams (I am high on Rutgers, Wisconsin and Maryland, low on Michigan, Indiana and Oregon). When it comes to the top though, there are no surprises: Michigan State and Illinois.
These are the clear two favorites in the conference before any actual games have been played. The two teams in the top 10 in every preseason poll and metric. Let's get into the rosters of each team, and discuss just how good they can be.
Advertisement
2. Michigan State
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jeremy Fears Jr., Senior, 15.2 ppg/2.4 rpg/9.4 apg/1.3 spg
All the high hopes for Michigan State start and end with Jeremy Fears this year. With Braden Smith gone, he enters the year as the most accomplished point guard in the country and the preseason pick for National Player of the Year for many publications. His style catches a lot of headlines: he isn't an incredible shooter or elite level athlete. He baits fouls as well (or as dishonorably, depending on your perspective) as anyone in the country, and has taken the baton from players like Brad Davison and Grayson Allen as the lightning rod of criticism for some of his unnecessary trips and kicks on the court. Love him or hate him though, he is an elite competitor and floor general who could average an assists double-double, which is almost unheard of in high major basketball.
Fears flails for foul | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Jordan Scott, Sophomore, 5.8 ppg/3.1 rpg/1.2 apg
Advertisement
Scott is a jumbo 6-foot-8 guard who took over a starting spot late in the season for the Spartans. He is being pointed at as a potential sophomore leap candidate. Offensively, he shot it well from three as a freshman at 37%, and should have put on some muscle in the spring and summer to be able to attack more effectively off the dribble. Where he really flashes potential is on the defensive end though. He is long and mobile, and can cause problems for most perimeter players. Jasiah Jervis is a name to be familiar with as well though: he is a Burger Boy freshman with enough size and physicality to be effective in his first year in the Big Ten.
Coen Carr, Senior, 12.0 ppg/5.4 rpg/1.2 apg
Best known as one of the best in-game dunkers you will ever see in college basketball. He has tantalized Michigan State fans for years with that elite athleticism, but the skill side of his game has not developed enough to turn him into the superstar many were hoping for. He showed more willingness to shoot from three last year, putting up just over two per game, but still just made them at a 28% clip, and with defenses not respecting his jumper, he does not have enough skill on the dribble to consistently drive effectively. Even with his warts though, he is a very effective Big Ten player as a physical defender and constant lob or putback threat on the offensive end.
Cam Ward, Sophomore, 5.1 ppg/4.2 rpg/0.3 apg
Advertisement
When he is not throwing checkdowns for the Tennessee Titans, Ward is the other part of last year's freshman class expected to take a leap as a starter with Jaxon Kohler gone. He is a physical, bruising presence who attacks the offensive glass and likes to do his damage near the basket. He has not demonstrated an interest in expanding his game out to the arc, so there is a spacing question with him and Carr in the same lineup.
Anton Bonke, Senior, 10.6 ppg/8.3 rpg/1.0 apg/1.5 bpg at Charlotte
One of the more interesting stories in college basketball, Bonke was born in the Netherlands but moved to Vanuatu when he was five years old. Vanuatu is not exactly known as a basketball hotspot. However, when you grow to be 7-foot-2 you can catch the right people's attention, and after coming to the United States before college for exposure, he landed at Eastern Arizona College. He then went to Providence before transferring for more minutes to Charlotte, where he put together a very solid junior season. He struggled his season at Providence, so the hope is improvement and better coaching will have him ready for the Big Ten. He has the size to be a rim protector, and offensively has a nice hook shot and can shoot some from three (34%). Has questions about his mobility, stamina and ability to handle playing against much more players his size in the Big Ten. If he can't, redshirt sophomore Jesse McCulloch or top 50 freshman (and Keaton Wagler's high school teammate) Ethan Taylor will provide more mobile options.
Why Illinois Beats Them
When it comes to Michigan State-Illinois, winning the glass always plays a huge role. Both teams pride themselves on being elite offensive rebounding teams. If Illinois can win that battle and build walls of size in the paint against Fears, Illinois just has more offensive weapons at their disposal and should get the win at home.
Advertisement
Why Illinois Gets Beat
Last year Fears went for 26 points and 15 assists, with 13 trips to the free throw line. He gets a friendly whistle even on the road, and Illinois does not match the physicality from Michigan State so the Spartans come into State Farm and steal what could be the deciding game in the Big Ten race.
X Factor
It has to be that center rotation. They were not sexy players, but Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper were really good on both ends for Michigan State last year. Fears and the athletic defense can carry them a long way, but a competent center rotation really cements them as both a Big Ten favorite and a National Title contender. Reports out of the exhibition season have been a mixed bag. Presumed starter Anton Bonke got benched after just six minutes against UConn. Jesse McCulloch and Ethan Taylor fared a bit better but are still very unproven commodities. An interesting solution could be going small with Cam Ward at the center spot, getting another wing shooter on the court to fix their spacing problems, but Izzo has preferred having real centers on the court at all times for the most part.
Advertisement
Bottom Line
As long as Jeremy Fears is healthy, this team has a very high floor. I'd be stunned if they finished outside the top four of the Big Ten or outside the top 15 nationally. The question is all about the ceiling, and if this is the team to get Izzo to one more Final Four or one more National Championship. I see them as a B-tier National Champion contender, as I just think their centers and spacing are too serious of a concern to put them with the top four or five teams in the country.
1. Illinois
Predicted Starting Lineup
Quentin Coleman, 6-foot-4 freshman combo guard, No. 18 overall recruit
Advertisement
Coleman is stepping into massive shoes as the freshman guard in the starting lineup. While he isn't likely to replicate what Keaton Wagler did (because Wagler was one-of-one historic at Illinois), Coleman looks ready to be an impact player right out of the gate, and potentially another one-and-done lottery pick. He is a smooth shooter from three and the midrange, with the ability to shoot off the catch or the bounce. He is not a true point guard but makes good reads when he does have the ball in his hands. His best characteristic is his activity and intensity. He attacks the glass aggressively, does not stand still on offense, always looking for an opportunity to cut to the basket, and can take over for Kylan Boswell as the in-your-face defender on this team. I do not expect the offense to run through him a lot, but he can find ways to be impactful and put up numbers and will stay on the court most of the game because of it.
Andrej Stojakovic, Senior, 13.5 ppg/4.5 rpg/1.0 apg
Stojakovic took some time adjusting to playing winning basketball after developing bad habits at Stanford and Cal but really came into his own in the NCAA Tournament. He learned how to use his physical gifts to become a strong defender and is one of the most unstoppable one-on-one scorers in college basketball. The reason he is not in the NBA right now is his three-point shot leaves a lot to be desired, and he has tunnel vision on his drives that can lead to forced shots and turnovers. I expect him to become Illinois' leading scorer and a much more consistent presence defensively.
Advertisement
Jake Davis, Senior, 5.4 ppg/2.2 rpg/0.7 apg
With the arrival of Stefan Vaaks, a lot of people assumed Jake Davis would move to the bench. I am not so sure of that, as Coach Underwood loves what he provides. He is a knockdown three-point shooter, a connector offensively who rarely makes mistakes, and a smart, tough positional defender. By starting him, just like last year it allows Underwood to balance the lineups well, bringing in Vaaks to take over the scoring and playmaking role as Stojakovic, Coleman or Mirkovic hits the bench.
David Mirkovic, Sophomore, 13.3 ppg/8.0 rpg/2.6 apg
The buzz about Mirkovic this offseason was reaching ELITE levels until his broken foot put a bit of a damper on things. He looked on pace to not miss much if any regular season games but has been put back in a boot and will likely miss part of the non-conference schedule. He is showing up on first round mock drafts and National Player of the Year conversations. Critics say he is too slow or not tall enough to be a point center type player but look for Tyler Underwood to use him as a matchup nightmare. You can hunt switches up or down the opposing team's lineup. Get a smaller player on him, isolate in booty ball, get a bigger player and he can pick and pop or drive past him. He was not far off of a 50/40/80 shooting season last year and could push for those elite efficiency splits this year. Underwood and Coach Fletcher have changed his body from "a fat guy" (Underwood's words, not mine) to a much more athletic body form, which should reflect positively in his ability to hedge screens defensively and stay in front of quicker forwards. Just a modest increase in usage on a very good team should put him in a good place to be in All-American conversations.
Advertisement
Tomislav Ivisic, Senior, 10.4 ppg/5.6 rpg/1.6 apg
Tomi took a little bit of a step back his second year at Illinois, seeing a dip statistically across the board. This could be due to circumstances, as playing with Keaton and Mirkovic took away opportunities to run the offense through him and Mirkovic was shouldering more of the rebounding load. Nevertheless, he found his stride in the NCAA tournament, demanding more post-ups, which he scores at a highly efficient rate. A big key to the offense is that he and his brother rediscover their shooting strokes that they lost late in the year. If they can make 35% or more (which they both did in 2024-25) while also being aggressive inside when they have a mismatch, it really unlocks Illinois as potentially the best offense in the country, as it pulls rim protectors away from the basket and allows Tyler Underwood to matchup hunt while punishing defenses for trying to overhelp.
Stefan Vaaks, Sophomore, 15.8 ppg/2.5 rpg/3.2 apg at Providence
Will add a bonus spot for the home team here, as Stefan Vaaks deserves his own paragraph. While I do not have him in the starting lineup, I expect him to have a similar impact as Stojakovic did last year off the bench, but in a very different way. Vaaks is a giant playmaker at 6-foot-7. He is a fantastic shooter and can make good reads out of the pick and roll. He has the same issue that Stojakovic has coming from a losing program, in that it will take time getting him to learn his place in an offensive system that will take the ball out of his hands more than he is used to, and that defensively there are higher expectations on his effort and focus than he had at Providence last year. Just like Stojakovic, I expect him to figure out his role as the season goes on and become a very dangerous weapon when March rolls around.
Advertisement
Also of note off the bench, I expect Zvonomir to continue to provide a spark off the bench relieving his brother (his dunk against VCU will forever be seared into my memory bank), and with Humrichous gone perhaps get a little more time playing next to his brother. Ethan Brown turned some heads with his exhibition performance and while I do not expect him to start and star like that in the regular season, he is another knockdown shooter who can make the right plays and keep the machine running. Behind those three, expect either Lucas Morillo or Lincoln Williams to emerge as the spot minutes wing, and either Landon Davis or Jason Jakstys to be the emergency foul trouble big.
X Factor
Cam Crocker and the defense. It was the question throughout the season last year, and Crocker pulled out some masterful adjustments when it mattered most, holding VCU, Houston and Iowa all under 60 points with below average efficiency. Illinois boasts one of the tallest and longest teams in the country but is not the most athletic team in the world. Coleman and Stojakovic both have the ability to be above average perimeter defenders. Tomi and Zvonomir can provide solid rim protection but will also need to be more unpredictable in their pick and roll coverage, mixing in harder hedges with their drop coverage. Underwood has talked about becoming more aggressive defensively this year to force more turnovers, a stat Illinois has been near the bottom of the country in recent years. With as dangerous as their offense will be, just putting together a top-20 defense (they ended 20th on KENPOM last year) is enough to fulfill their promise as a serious NCAA title contender. So far through the exhibition season, the defense has been ragged. Communication on when to switch and when to stay on screens has been very haphazard, and getting that fixed could take time.
Bonus X Factor is health, as news that David Mirkovic has been put back in a boot is a scary development for the Illini, as well as seeing both Ivisic twins and Andrej Stojakovic leave the Baylor exhibition hurt. None of the Baylor injuries seemed like anything that should linger for long, but Underwood will have less runway to get this team to gel if key players are missing for extended portions of the non-conference season.
Advertisement
Bottom Line
Enjoy the ride. This has the potential to be a special team. Retention plus very targeted, very talented additions are how the best programs operate, and it's what we have this year in Champaign. That does not mean it is NCAA title or bust. There are goals to reach before Detroit. Big Ten Championships matter, and if we can win that outright Brad Underwood may finally get his elusive Coach of the Year Award.
There will be bumps in the road. A loss to a middling Big Ten squad. A non-conference loss against an elite team that makes it seem like we still aren't quite at the National Champion level (Duke at Cameron likely without Mirkovic could get ugly). Even if we fall short of it in the end, having a team that can win 25-30 games in a season should not be something we take for granted around these parts. Maybe they don't reach my lofty expectations, but the fact that we are able to be let down by not ending the season cutting down nets is something to be celebrated.
