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Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Saturday, September 5
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- Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Saturday, September 5
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images. Pictured: Seth Lugo.
The Kansas City Royals host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5, 2026. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Royals are -106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
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Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Royals predictionbelow, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
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Blue Jays vs Royals Pick: Royals F5 Moneyline
My Blue Jays vs Royals best bet is on Kansas City to take the lead after the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Royals Odds
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Blue Jays vs Royals moneyline:Blue Jays -106, Royals -112
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Blue Jays vs Royals over/under:9.5 (-111o / -109u)
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Blue Jays vs Royals spread:Blue Jays -1.5 (+145), Royals +1.5 (-175)
Blue Jays vs Royals Probable Pitchers
| Max Scherzer (RHP, TOR) |
Stat |
Seth Lugo (RHP, KCR) |
| 2-7 |
W-L |
6-8 |
| -0.1 |
fWAR (FanGraphs) |
1.9 |
| 6.16 / 4.21 |
ERA / xERA |
5.03 / 5.16 |
| 5.64 / 5.25 |
FIP / xFIP |
4.17 / 4.46 |
| 8.1% |
K-BB% |
10.4% |
| 35.3% |
GB% |
40.2% |
| .252 |
BABIP |
.323 |
| 94 |
Stuff+ |
89 |
| 105 |
Location+ |
104 |
Blue Jays vs Royals MLB Betting Preview
Kudos to future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer for turning back the clock and striking out 10 Mariners over seven one-hit innings last time out to push himself further up the all-time strikeout list.
Considering he had a previous season high of 5, done just once in 12 other starts, the evidence points against this continuing. Including his last outing, Scherzer is still sitting on an 8.0 K-BB% with 9.1% Barrels/BBE allowed this year.
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Left-handed batters have been a massive problem for him (.363 wOBA allowed) and left-handed power is a sudden strength of this improving Kansas City lineup with each of Carter Jensen (115 wRC+, .246 ISO), Vinnie Pasquantino (138, .221) and Jac Caglianone (113, .153) all doing some damage to RHPs.
Each of those three also exceeds a 145 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
BARTOLO projects a dangerous Royals' lineup averaging a 110 RC+ at home, 105 vs RHP and 117 over the last month.
Toronto projects the stronger of two good defenses with 25 FRV.
It's been a long…LONG time since I've endorsed Seth Lugo , who has pushed his ERA above five after allowing nine runs to the Guardians last time out, the fourth time in his last six starts he's allowed at least five runs, but with a 10.4 K-BB% and just 7.6% Barrels/BBE allowed on the season, he's still been a little more than one-third of a run better than Scherzer.
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Scherzer's xERA is almost a run lower, but contact-neutral indicators (SIERA, xFIP) are more than half a run higher. When in doubt, contact neutral indicators are generally more reliable in small sample sizes like Scherzer's and even Lugo's in less than a season.
Lugo is also allowing LHBs a .364 wOBA, but the Blue Jays are running out Brett Bateman (111 wRC+, .051 ISO v RHP), Jesus Sanchez (121, .176), Nathan Lukes (114, .135) and Andres Gimenez (80, .121). Not a lot of fear stricken by those names.
As mentioned, the Royals also have a quality defense, projecting just a bit worse than Toronto (14 FRV) and we're not going to consider bullpens here because I want no part of Kansas City's.
However, the Royals also add home field and a small projected 7 BRR edge.
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With essentially nothing except defense favoring the Blue Jays and even that a small margin, the near-even market here just doesn't smell right.
Still, I can't entirely trust Lugo and am splitting up a unit between the Royals F5 and their team total (4.5 -115), with temperatures expected to be in the mid-90s again, giving this run environment an expected 7-8% bump, including park effects and umpire (Shane Livensparger).
Picks:
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Royals F5 ML (-110, 0.55u | Bet to -120),
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Royals Team Total Over 4.5 (-115, 0.58u | Bet to -125)
