For the second straight year, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will meet in an American League wild-card series. For the second straight year, the best-of-three series will take place in the Bronx.
On Monday, Boston manager Chad Tracy confirmed his rotation for the series. Payton Tolle gets the ball in Game 1, Sonny Gray in Game 2, and Ranger Suárez in Game 3. This is a matchup of two good pitching staffs, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it be a low-scoring series. If that ends up being the case, that is better for the Red Sox.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the series go the distance. If it does, then Bleacher Report believes the Red Sox hold the advantage.
Tim Kelly dropped predictions for each wild-card series that begins on Tuesday. For the Red Sox and Yankees, he has them splitting the first two games. He predicted that Ranger Suárez would dominate Game 3 to send Boston to the AL Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays .
"The Yankees and Red Sox will split Games 1 and 2 before Ranger Suárez—the pitcher with a 1.48 career postseason ERA—turns in a dominant outing in Game 3 to give Boston a series win," Kelly wrote .
If that ends up happening, then what a pivot from Boston Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow last winter. When Alex Bregman signed with the Chicago Cubs in free agency, Breslow's pivot was Suárez. It was an odd pivot at the time, as it didn't fill the third base void left by Bregman going to the Cubs .
However, if things end up playing out the way Kelly predicts, then it will be a very underrated move by Breslow and Boston's front office. Bregman's replacement ended up being Caleb Durbin from the Milwaukee Brewers , who turned things around after a slow start to the 2026 season.
September was a tough month for the Red Sox on the field. Their offense struggled, but they also suffered injuries to Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela . Contreras was hit on the hand by a pitch against the Texas Rangers on Sept. 17. He is expected to be on the wild-card round roster.
However, Boston has lost utility infielder Mickey Gasper for the series after suffering an injury against the Cubs in Game 1 of a doubleheader on Friday.
This series is going to come down to pitching. New York will roll out Cam Schlittler in Game 1, Max Fried in Game 2, and Gerrit Cole in Game 3. A potential Suárez/Cole Game 3 matchup would be fascinating.
When Breslow pivoted to Suárez, it was for moments like this. During his time with the Philadelphia Phillies , the 31-year-old is 4-1 in the playoffs in 11 games, eight starts. He has 44 strikeouts in 42.2 innings and just seven earned runs allowed. That is not a bad option to send out in a series-deciding game.
Suárez was 8-5 this season in 28 starts for the Red Sox. If it comes down to a Game 3, Kelly is right: Boston has to like its chances.
This article was originally published on HEAVY
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