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Breaking down Phillies-Braves as September starts to feel like October
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- Breaking down Phillies-Braves as September starts to feel like October
Breaking down Phillies-Braves as September starts to feel like October originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
Oftentimes, we associate playoff baseball with October.
But in Philadelphia in 2026, it feels a little different. Once the calendar turned to August, it felt like the Phillies hit another gear.
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Coming out of the All-Star break, after hosting the festivities all week in their own city, they were sluggish. Then, they put together the second-most wins in a month in franchise history.
Twenty-one victories.
And that has made September feel like October because the club now has two goals before the postseason. It's no longer just about climbing the Wild Card standings. It's also about chasing down the Braves, who the Phillies will welcome to town for four games this weekend.
The Phillies trail Atlanta by four games with 22 remaining for both teams. Citizens Bank Park should have a playoff-like atmosphere.
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The Braves stand at 83-57, tied for the second-most wins in baseball. They've sustained that success throughout the season, especially out of the gate.
Rob Thomson's Phillies played them six times in April. They lost five of six, and after their April 26 loss in Atlanta, the Phillies fell to 9-19 and 10½ games out of first place.
Fast-forward more than four months and the Phillies are 18 games over .500 at 79-61 heading into this head-to-head matchup.
A wild turnaround.
FRIDAY'S HEAVYWEIGHT DUEL
It'll be a marquee matchup out of the gate when Atlanta's Chris Sale and his 2.06 ERA take the mound against Cristopher Sánchez on Friday night.
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These two have faced off before. Sánchez allowed three runs, all unearned, over six innings on April 18, while Sale countered with seven innings of one-run ball in the Braves' 3-1 win.
Sale put together six more scoreless frames against the Phillies a week later, allowing just one hit and striking out nine in another Atlanta win.
The 37-year-old southpaw has shown zero signs of slowing down. He posted a 2.00 ERA in both July and August and enters Friday well-rested. His last start came eight days ago, when he threw a complete-game, 11-strikeout shutout against the Dodgers.
There's truly no "great" attack plan against Sale.
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One positive for the Phillies, though, is how far they've come against left-handed pitching. They've posted a .751 OPS against southpaws, sixth-best in baseball, since interim manager Don Mattingly took over on April 27.
Before that, under Thomson, they ranked last in batting average (.179), on-base percentage (.270), slugging percentage (.293) and OPS (.563) against lefties.
Sánchez is coming off one of his better starts, too. He had gone seven consecutive outings without completing seven innings before throwing seven scoreless last Saturday in Anaheim.
He enters Friday as baseball's leader in pitcher WAR and tied for the MLB lead with 16 wins.
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MORE PITCHING MATCHUPS
Saturday's matchup features another left-hander the Phillies have already seen this season.
Martín Pérez threw six scoreless innings against them on April 17, but the Phillies will counter this time with Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is coming off an encouraging outing in Anaheim, where he completed six innings for the first time since July 21 and allowed one run.
On Sunday, Aaron Nola faces Tyler Mahle. Nola's 4.93 season ERA remains inflated by his difficult first half, but he has posted a 3.43 ERA across 11 starts since the beginning of July.
Mahle's 4.25 overall ERA is also misleading. Since joining Atlanta, he has allowed four earned runs over 23⅔ innings, good for a 1.52 ERA.
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The series concludes Monday with Jesús Luzardo against Bryce Elder. Luzardo, who was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for August, has 209 strikeouts and a 3.02 ERA. Elder enters with a 4.11 ERA.
WHO'S HOT AND WHO'S NOT
For Atlanta, Ronald Acuña Jr. was slumping to the point that manager Walt Weiss gave him a day off to slow things down. He had struggled following his second injured-list stint of the season.
But over his last seven games, the star outfielder is 10-for-27, good for a .370 average and an OPS north of .900.
Michael Harris II and catchers Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy are also swinging hot bats, but slugger Matt Olson is ice cold. Over his last 60 at-bats, Olson is slashing .167/.219/.250 with just one home run.
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On the Phillies' side, Bryce Harper has a 35-game on-base streak, a stretch in which he has slashed .345/.494/.588.
An absurd amount of success.
Edmundo Sosa is 7-for-15 after a West Coast trip in which he slugged two go-ahead homers in the seventh inning or later. He should be in the lineup against Sale and Pérez.
Kyle Schwarber, meanwhile, has been struggling. His last 30 games haven't looked like him outside of his electrifying walk-off homer against the Cardinals. He is batting just .183 with a .624 OPS over that span.
The off day, paired with his success against southpaws this season, could help Schwarber get back on track ahead of the biggest series of the season.
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THE PHILLIES' KEY
The patient approach the Phillies have authored and leaned on since the end of July will be tested this weekend.
Over the last month, the Braves' pitching staff has produced the fourth-highest opponent whiff rate at 27.4 percent and the sixth-highest opponent chase rate.
The Phillies have posted the fourth-lowest whiff rate and 11th-lowest chase rate in that span, a significant improvement from where they were entering August.
Most of Atlanta's arms have plus stuff and rely on generating soft contact and chase, so this will be a strong test.
As always, if the Phillies begin to see pitches they can handle, they will likely shift to a more aggressive approach. They made a similar adjustment against the Mariners' fastball-heavy rotation, culminating in their series-finale win over Bryan Woo.
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Interestingly, Phillies pitching leads baseball in opponent whiff rate over the last month and ranks fourth in opponent chase rate.
Waiting out either bullpen has not been a productive strategy lately, either. The Braves carry baseball's best bullpen ERA at 2.03 since August 20, while the Phillies rank third at 2.18.
Something has to give, but it begins with the Phillies' bats stepping up again.
THE MATH
A four-game series creates a wide range of possibilities.
If the Phillies sweep, the two teams will be tied atop the NL East by Monday afternoon.
If the Phillies win three of four, Atlanta's lead will be cut to two games.
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A split keeps the deficit at four. Losing three of four pushes it to six. An Atlanta sweep would leave the Phillies eight games back with only 18 remaining.
Then there's the tiebreaker.
Atlanta owns a 5-1 advantage in the season series with seven meetings remaining. Because MLB no longer uses a Game 163 to break ties, the Phillies must win six of those seven games to take the season series.
That means they need to win at least three of four this weekend just to keep the tiebreaker alive.
If the Phillies win three of four, they would need to sweep the final three-game series. If they sweep this weekend, they would need to win at least two of the final three.
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There is still nearly a month left in the regular season, but by Monday afternoon, the race for the NL East could look completely different.
Their next meeting will come when the Phillies visit Atlanta for their final three games of the season series from Sept. 11–13.
