Breaking down Victor Wembanyama’s 2025-26 NBA MVP race criteria

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Breaking down Victor Wembanyama’s 2025-26 NBA MVP race criteria

Brett Siegel, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Tue, Mar 24, 2026 ·

13 min read

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Breaking down Victor Wembanyama's 2025-26 NBA MVP race criteria appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seemed to be the frontrunner for the NBA's MVP for the last couple of months. Many MVP candidates have missed games due to injury, and the Oklahoma City Thunder 's dominance makes the reigning MVP an easy choice.

But what about Victor Wembanyama ?

The San Antonio Spurs star has led his team to its first Southwest Division title in nine seasons, and he has become one of the most captivating NBA players around the world.

Why is this, you may ask? Well, for starters, he is the most dominant player in the NBA when it comes to both sides of the basketball, and while a lot of this has to do with his ridiculous length and height, it's also because of his skills.

The argument and debate surrounding the NBA MVP award every year has turned into more of a popularity contest based on relationships the media has with certain players and personnel. This has oftentimes led to the MVP race being declared over several weeks before the end of the regular season.

In Wembanyama's case, along with the views of many other players and personnel around the league, the race is just beginning.

Of course, the Spurs and Wembanyama's teammates will consistently advocate for him to be the MVP , but we never tend to hear from those in the running for the award as to why they deserve it. After defeating the Miami Heat 136-111, clinching the division, and hearing all of his teammates talk about the MVP award, Wembanyama finally gave everyone a deep dive into this award race.

"I have thought about it," Wembanyama said of the MVP race. "I think right now, there is a debate. There should be, even though I think I should lead the race. I'm trying to make sure that at the end of the season, there's no debate."

It makes sense that Wemby thinks he should be the MVP this season. After all, just about a week or two ago, he sent a clear message to the rest of the league by stating that he was locking in for the final few weeks and focusing all of his efforts on trying to win both MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year award.

Whether or not Wemby will be the MVP this season is the debate at hand, and the Spurs' star laid out a clear three-part campaign on Monday night regarding the criteria that should make him the 2025-26 NBA MVP.

"My first one would be that defense is 50 percent of the game and that is undervalued, so far, in the MVP race," Wembanyama firmly stated. "I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league. Second argument would be that we almost swept OKC in the season and we dominated them three times with their real team and four times with the, you know, more rotation players. My third argument would be that offense impact is not just points."

Nobody is more deserving than anyone else in this year's MVP race.

Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama, Luka Doncic , Nikola Jokic , Cade Cunningham , and Jaylen Brown are all extremely valuable players in their own right, and they are all among the best basketball players in the entire world.

When you look deeper into exactly all three things Wembanyama pointed out in his MVP speech on Monday night, this award debate suddenly becomes extremely intriguing and tends to favor the Spurs star.

As a result, let's break down each of Wembanyama's three main MVP points to see where this leads in the award race.

Criteria #1: Defense is 50% of the game

One of the biggest stereotypes regarding the MVP award is that it's given to the best offensive player in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander won the award during the 2024-25 season after leading the league in scoring, and Joel Embiid won MVP during the 2022-23 season after leading the league in scoring.

Nikola Jokic won the award three times in 2021, 2022, and 2024 for his advanced offensive metrics and near triple-double averages over the course of each season.

The bottom line is that offensive numbers are always thrown in our faces, and those are the only numbers we pay attention to.

But what Wembanyama is saying is true: "Defense is 50 percent of the game." Nobody ever brings up defensive win shares or individual defensive rating when it comes to the MVP award because they want to fit that into the DPOY category instead.

The most valuable player should absolutely be able to impact the game in more ways than one, and Wembanyama does just that when you look at his offensive and defensive metrics.

Gilgeous-Alexander is a terrific defender in his own right. After all, he received votes for the DPOY award last season and barely missed being on the All-Defensive list. However, when you compare his defensive impact numbers to Wembanyama, it's not even close.

Wembanyama is miles ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander when it comes to how he impacts the game defensively, just like how Gilgeous-Alexander is miles ahead of Jokic in the same metrics. If you need proof of this, simply look at the numbers.

According to advanced metrics from Cleaning The Glass, teams are scoring 12.9 fewer points per 100 possessions against the court with Wembanyama on the court. How crazy is this? Well, 99 percent of the players in the NBA have a worse on/off-court differential in this category.

That is a pretty significant gap.

Of course, one can also examine Wembanyama's historic block numbers, as his 9.21 block percentage this season currently ranks 11th all-time in NBA history, and he is averaging a league-high 3.04 blocks per game this year.

Wembanyama will undoubtedly win the Defensive Player of the Year award should he remain healthy and play at least 65 games this season. As a result, his defensive success should directly carry over and coincide with the fact that he's one of two players this season averaging at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting at least 50 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3-point range.

The only other player putting up these numbers is Nikola Jokic, but he isn't close to making the same defensive impact Wemby is.

Unlike others, who are scoring machines on offense, Wembanyama is doing this and leading the league in virtually every major defensive metric possible. That definitely needs to mean something in the MVP race.

Criteria #2: Head-to-head matchups

Another interesting topic Wembanyama brought up in his MVP criteria on Monday night was his battles with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the head-to-head factor of the Spurs defeating the Thunder four times in five tries this season.

That has to mean something, right?

Perhaps this isn't as important a factor compared to an individual's offensive and defensive metrics, but the fact of the matter is that Wembanyama led his team to these wins over the best team in the league and the defending MVP.

In said games, Wembanyama has averaged 18.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the floor and 62.5 percent from 3-point range. Overall, Wembanyama was an average of +10 in five games against the Thunder this season and finished at +50 against them in total.

The only game he recorded a negative plus-minus in was a -14 in a 119-98 Thunder win, their only victory against the Spurs this season.

It is clear to see Wembanyama's impact in these head-to-head wins against the Thunder. Despite Gilgeous-Alexander also recording impressive numbers, the one thing that sticks out is that Oklahoma City lost.

The reigning league MVP played in four of the five games against the Spurs this season, averaging a plus-minus of -0.3 in these games with a total plus-minus of -1 overall.

Once again, Wembanyama's point in the MVP race is proven, as head-to-head directly favors him over Gilgeous-Alexander.

Criteria #3: Offensive impact is more than points

What does Wembanyama mean when he says offense impact is not just points? Does he mean that offensive rebounding, assists, shooting percentages, and other statistics matter?

These statistics obviously hold weight in the MVP race, especially in Jokic's case, due to his triple-double-like numbers. Doncic is in this MVP race because of his elite scoring, and Gilgeous-Alexander also has extremely high advanced metrics on offense.

In Wembanyama's case, he is pointing to all the little things he does to help the team succeed on offense and how his presence alone makes the Spurs a better overall offensive team.

Once again, let's dive right into the numbers to see where Wembanyama ranks when looking at his offensive presence on the court versus off it, and we'll use our friends at Cleaning The Glass for this.

This season, the Spurs are scoring 3.6 more points with Wembanyama on the court per 100 possessions than when he's not playing. That ranks in the 79th percentile, which is certainly above average. Gilgeous-Alexander's metrics are well above Wemby's in this category due to his overall productivity and usage in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are averaging 10.4 more points per 100 possessions with SGA playing versus him being out of the game, which ranks in the 98th percentile. As far as this category goes, Gilgeous-Alexander has the upper hand in advanced scoring metrics.

Then again, he is averaging 4.2 more minutes per game, which equates to 336 more minutes to this point in the season between the two.

But, as Wembanyama said, offense is more than just scoring. With Wembanyama on the court this season, the Spurs' effective field goal percentage jumps up by 4.6 percent, and 97 percent of the league's players have less of an impact as far as EFG% goes.

With Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, the Thunder's EFG% is 3.3 percent higher, putting him in the 92nd percentile. Advantage Wembanyama on this one.

So, what other category could we possibly look at here to try and find a tiebreaker between Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander as far as offensive impact goes? Well, to win the game, you obviously need to be able to score, and winning ultimately matters over everything else.

When Gilgeous-Alexander plays and is on the court, the Thunder are viewed by the advanced metrics as a 71-win team, with the star guard factoring in a +14 in expected wins. As for Wembanyama, the Spurs are viewed as a 73-win team by the advanced metrics, with him contributing to an incredible +31 in expected wins.

Essentially, this means the Spurs would be expected to win only 42 games if Wembanyama did not set foot on the court, compared to playing at the level of a 73-win team during the regular season with him on the court.

That right there is a massive factor nobody is really paying attention to in the MVP race that voters need to be cognizant of.

Wembanyama is right that offense means a lot more than just scoring, and everything he does directly contributes to the Spurs winning games. Gilgeous-Alexander is a terrific player and is by no means being looked down upon here, but the fact of the matter is that his team as a whole has put them in the position they are in.

The main reason the Spurs are a championship-contending threat is because of Wembanyama, and the metrics prove it.

So… Who should actually win MVP?

The most compelling argument one can take away from Wembanyama's MVP criteria and his resume specifically is that defense does not get mentioned enough for this award.

Just because there is a Defensive Player of the Year award does not mean that by default makes the MVP award one for the best offensive talents. Scoring and offensive numbers clearly matter, but defense is equally important, and that was the big point Wemby was trying to make.

The Spurs have been irrelevant for years.

This team has not been to the playoffs since 2019, when DeMar DeRozan , LaMarcus Aldridge , and Rudy Gay were leading the team. Wembanyama is not living in the past, and he is sending a clear message to everyone in the NBA, including Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, that the Spurs are not what they have been over the last six years.

After all, he made it a point to say that they have dominated the Thunder , the defending NBA champions, this season in their regular-season series.

Maybe the Spurs haven't been to the playoffs in a while, and Wembanyama truly doesn't know what it's like to play in that kind of atmosphere in a seven-game series, but he is sending a clear message to the Thunder that they are irrelevant to him.

As crazy as it sounds, the Thunder and Gilgeous-Alexander are actually the ones who need to prove they are the defending champions and reigning league MVP, respectively, because Wembanyama has backed up all of his claims.

He is the best defensive player in the NBA, his offensive metrics directly lead to the highest expected win total in the NBA, and when it comes down to the games themselves, Wemby has led the Spurs to four wins in five games over SGA and the Thunder.

Those are three enormous reasons why Wembanyama believes he should be the MVP this season, and it's why the rest of the league has noticed his greatness.

"There's never been a player like him in the history of the game that has had the kind of impact at both ends," Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said recently of Wemby's greatness. "My feeling has been he's been great the whole time, but he's definitely getting better. It's clear that he works hard on his game."

Even Golden State Warriors defensive star Draymond Green has recognized Wembanyama's impact, calling him "otherworldly" and a "special" player.

Whether Wembanyama wins the MVP award or not, it will have zero impact on his mindset entering the playoffs.

In fact, losing the award may just be the extra motivation he and the Spurs need to win the Western Conference and make their first NBA Finals appearance since their title run in 2014 with Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard .

The MVP debate is wide open right now. There are so many fantastic players to choose from, and as Wemby said, his goal is to make sure there is no debate by the end of the season.

When you dive into all three main points he made on Monday night, it's clear to see how he envisions ending this debate.

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